Just More Champagne for Beijing? : * No, Bush’s MFN Decision Was a Wise American Investment in China’s Future

China today is ruled by unblinking revolutionaries whose orthodox Communism blinds them to the meaning of historic forces sweeping around the world.

South Africa moves away from apartheid, Eastern Europe continues its metamorphosis toward a higher form of political life and the leaders of the Soviet Union prepare to put their economic reforms to the vote of a people’s referendum--a Soviet first. Not exactly business as usual. But none of these extraordinary developments seem very much to affect Beijing’s political elite, which rolls merrily along like old man river on a course more or less predetermined by rigid ideology.

The resulting abhorrence in the West was never more palpable than during last year’s dramatic and repugnant repression in Beijing. The image of tanks in and around the capital wheeling toward students will remain a vivid memory for a long time to come. President Bush thoroughly misjudged the depth of the broad distaste among U.S. and international publics when top advisers were dispatched last year to Beijing so soon after that Tian An Men Square tragedy. Sure, on one level Bush’s ploy was a bold and arguably imaginative stroke--an effort to garner influence at a moment of great diplomatic isolation. But ultimately it proved futile--and triggered worldwide criticism for the seeming U.S. insensitivity. It’s possible that the memorable champagne toast in Beijing by National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft will haunt Bush’s China policy for years to come--even when policy decisions are correct.

But yesterday’s decision by the President to continue extending low tariff rates to China’s imports for at least another year under the most-favored-nation (MFN) program was just that. Bush calls it an “enormously difficult decision,” but his critics are likely to feel it was nothing more than a unthinking extension of the champagne toast.

A logical extension it surely is, but unthinking? Not necessarily. Withdrawing MFN status for China, as emotionally satisfying as it might be, would not likely prove effective statecraft. American policy needs to invest in China’s future--to work toward the day when that nation will be a more normal member of the world community. Attempts to pressure today’s leadership would be to tilt at so many windmills. The better course is to appeal to the next generation of Chinese leadership with an economic and diplomatic policy that takes the longer view. The President has wisely chosen that path.