Eerie Quiet by Democrats on Challenger for Bush in ’92

The chairman of the Democratic Party was having lunch with three former chairmen. Inevitably, the conversation turned to 1992 and who was making moves toward challenging George Bush.

“We couldn’t come up with a candidate,” said John White, one of the former chairmen at the table.

Where are you, Bill Bradley? Why aren’t you out there, Mario Cuomo, Al Gore, Dick Gephardt? What about it, Bob Kerrey, Bill Clinton, Sam Nunn, Pat Schroeder?

“It’s kind of spooky,” said Bruce Babbitt, the former Arizona governor who was an early casualty in the race for the 1988 Democratic presidential nomination.

In May, 1986, New Hampshire was buzzing with overt and covert presidential campaign activity. Rep. Richard Gephardt (D-Mo.) and Babbitt were campaigning actively. Others, including then-Vice President George Bush, had campaign people working in the state.

In the last six months, no potential candidates have visited the state that holds the first presidential primary and no campaign people are soliciting support for candidates.

Ditto for Iowa, where the first presidential caucuses traditionally attract some of the earliest maneuvering.

“Normally at this stage of the game you would have least one or two out making all the body language, doing the fund-raising, denying they were a candidate. But, obviously, you know, you can smell ‘em,” said White. “I don’t find that anywhere now.”

Party chairman Ronald H. Brown, who was host of the luncheon that also included former chairmen Robert Strauss and Charles T. Manatt, said he doesn’t share White’s concern.

“I really think a 1991 start is plenty of time. I don’t see any real reason or particular benefit to potential candidates being out this year,” he said.

Brown acknowledged that it is “important to move around the country to get to know what is on voters’ minds and to develop the techniques for communicating effectively with voters.” But he insisted that even those Democrats “being mildly mentioned” are finding opportunities to get around the country.

“By this time in the cycle, I’d been out there (campaigning) for two years,” said Walter F. Mondale, who learned how tough it was to challenge a popular incumbent President.

The quietude is widely perceived as a general reluctance to jump into a race against the Republican President whose approval ratings in opinion polls are at near-record levels.

There are a few stirrings.

Virginia Gov. L. Douglas Wilder plans to visit both Iowa and New Hampshire next month and get acquainted with people in the states that traditionally kick off the presidential nominating season.

A group of Texans is getting organized to promote Sen. Lloyd Bentsen for president, but the man who drew rave reviews as the 1988 Democratic vice presidential nominee insists that he is not running.

On any given day Jesse Jackson is delivering a speech somewhere. Whether that’s campaigning or just a way of life is anyone’s guess.

Beyond those three, there are lots of other names, but very little activity.

Babbitt is practicing law in Phoenix and writing about the destruction of the rain forests in Brazil, and showing no inclination to repeat his 1988 adventure. But like other Democrats, he worries about the lack of activity in his party.

“It’s not a good idea to be sitting in the bleachers,” he said. “It looks like a tough game, but you never know what’s going to happen. If everybody hangs back until the last minute it’s going to make it all that much harder.”

Even if Bush’s popularity holds and he proves unbeatable in 1992, there’s always 1996 and the prospect of running against Dan Quayle. His approval ratings run about 40 points below those for Bush.

“I guess I’m more puzzled than troubled about why there seems to be so little activity,” said Paul G. Kirk Jr., who was Democratic Party chairman during the 1988 campaign.

“There are those who believe you have to run through this once before you can fully appreciate it and find the kind of stride and stamina and message that puts you in shape for another campaign,” said Kirk.

Mondale, for one, thinks it’s essential for potential Democratic candidates to get out and discover what it’s like running for President.

“It’s a different kind of politics . . . it’s a different set of issues,” said the last Democrat to serve as vice president. He said a candidate needs the intensive travel to “pick up your public message” and identify “the central themes in American life.”

“I’m not sure anybody knows how strong Bush is going to be in ‘92,” Mondale said. “He may be strong, but I don’t think that’s for sure.”

Mondale took on Ronald Reagan in 1984 and got little thanks and fewer electoral votes for his trouble. Three years out of his life, endless hours on airplanes, thousands of bad meals, nights spent tossing and turning in drab hotel rooms. And for what?

He carried his home state of Minnesota and the District of Columbia, a total of 13 electoral votes, the lowest for any presidential candidate since Alf Landon was blown away by Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936. Mondale was the consensus winner when he debated Reagan on domestic issues, but his party remembers only that he was a loser of historic proportions.

No one seems eager to join him in the record book.

“No plans,” said Bentsen when asked if he might run. But the attention is nice. “It’s amazing what some of them (presidential boosters) come in and say. I have people at airports walk up and say nice things, which I always enjoy.”