THE WASHINGTON SUMMIT : NEWS ANALYSIS : Trade Agreement Won’t Let Soviets Cash In Immediately : Commerce: The perks of most-favored-nation status still elude Moscow. Senate ratification of the new treaty may also be a difficult hurdle.

The U.S.-Soviet trade agreement signed Friday by President Bush and Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev represents a symbolic turning point between the two countries, but it is unlikely to help the shattered Soviet economy anytime soon.

Although Gorbachev will not leave Washington with a formal promise that Moscow will receive “most-favored-nation” trade preferences, the treaty is a prerequisite for the preferred status and for normalizing U.S.-Soviet trade relations after 45 years of Cold War.

Ratification of the treaty by the Senate, however, may prove more difficult than either side expected. Liberals and conservatives probably will try to block ratification, required before the pact can take effect, because of Gorbachev’s tough moves to block Lithuanian independence.

And White House officials said the trade agreement will not be sent to Capitol Hill until the Soviet Parliament passes legislation guaranteeing the freedom of Soviets to emigrate, a legal requirement before the White House can grant most-favored-nation status for Moscow.

Soviet officials said Gorbachev told Bush on Friday that he expects negotiations between Moscow and Vilnius on Lithuania’s bid for independence to begin within a few weeks. But to give the Soviet leader more flexibility, Washington has agreed not to insist publicly on a specific timetable, they said.

Even so, the impact of the accord or even future most-favored-nation status on the Soviet economy is likely to be modest, at least for several years. Barring an economic miracle, Moscow has neither the goods nor the hard currency to boost trade in either direction.

In theory, granting most-favored-nation status would seem to provide a big boost by trimming U.S. tariffs on Soviet imports to an average 6.7%, or only one-fifth of the 34% rate now in effect. The action would give Moscow the same preferences enjoyed by most other U.S. trading partners.

But U.S. economists say that many Soviet products are so shoddy that Americans are not likely to buy them, even with the sharply lower tariffs, and therefore, the lower prices that the special status would bring. And analysts say the Soviet economy simply is not capable of producing more exportable goods.

In 1988, the United States bought a scant $578 million worth of goods from the Soviet Union, primarily oil, silver, vodka, furs and fertilizer. That was about the same dollar value as America imported that year from the United Arab Emirates.

America shipped $3 billion in goods to the Soviet Union last year, but Moscow already is proving unable to pay the tab; the Soviets are slipping behind on their bills, not only to the U.S. companies, but to other Western firms.

The treaty signed by Bush and Gorbachev covers a standard list of requirements set by the 1974 Jackson-Vanik legislation, including guarantees of property rights and currency exchange for U.S. firms in the Soviet Union, and establishment of consulates by each government.

It also spells out detailed requirements for steps that Moscow must take to protect copyrights, patents and trademarks of U.S. corporations doing business in the Soviet Union. The Soviets are in the process of enacting the necessary enabling laws.

But the trade treaty, as well as any action on most-favored-nation status, face a hard road in Congress.

Even before the accord was announced, Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole (R-Kan.) told reporters there was a bipartisan consensus in Congress to require Moscow to provide stronger assurances about independence for Lithuania and other Baltic states before approving any pact.

“Congress is not going to move . . . without something more” from Gorbachev, the Kansas senator said. “I’ve got to believe he understands this (pro-Baltic sentiment) is a serious problem (for him) in this country--it won’t go away.” Other senior lawmakers, many of whom attended a morning meeting with Gorbachev at the Soviet Embassy, expressed similar sentiments.

“The United States will not give new trade benefits while the Soviet noose continues to strangle Lithuania,” said Sen. Alfonse M. D’Amato (R-N.Y.).

In addition to the broader trade treaty, the two countries also signed a long-term grain accord that will require Moscow to step up its purchases of American grain by 1 million metric tons a year--to a total of 10 million tons a year--beginning next Jan. 1.

It also allows Moscow to buy up to 14 million metric tons of grain in any given year without prior consultation with the Agriculture Department. Currently, the limit is 12 million tons a year. A metric ton is 2,200 pounds.

And it gives the Soviets more flexibility by enabling Moscow to choose between wheat and feed grains. The five-year pact, worked out in principle last March, was designed to replace the current grain accord, which is scheduled to expire at the end of December.

There had been some reports that the Soviets were threatening not to sign the grain accord unless Bush agreed to complete the broader trade treaty this week. But U.S. officials said Moscow had made that a condition from the start and had exerted no new pressures at the summit.

The hitch over Soviet emigration laws has little to do with current Soviet policy, which has been eased dramatically in recent years. Last year alone, more than 70,000 Soviet Jews left the country with the approval of Soviet authorities.

Rather, the snag stems from a provision in the Jackson-Vanik law requiring the Soviets to commit that policy to law as a condition for most-favored-nation status.

The accord signed Friday marks the second visible trade concession that Washington has granted the Soviets in the past month. Two weeks ago, Washington supported granting Moscow observer status in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, which governs world trade.

LEADING U.S. EXPORTS TO SOVIET UNION 1988, millions of U.S. dollars. Corn or maize: 888 Wheat: 750 Animal feeds: 247 Fertilizers: 223 Oilseeds: 158 Rubber or plastics: 54 Fruits and nuts: 47 Refined petroleum: 43 Cotton: 31 Measuring instruments: 29 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

LEADING SOVIET EXPORTS TO U.S. 1988, millions of U.S. dollars. Petroleum products: 182 Silver, platinum: 182 Inorganic chemicals: 64 Scrap metal: 29 Vodka, beverages: 28 Fertilizers: 24 Furs: 17 Organic chemicals: 15 Pig Iron: 11 Uranium: 11 Crude oil: 10 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce