NEWS ANALYSIS : Harsh Rhetoric Brings a Warlike Atmosphere to Mideast : Diplomacy: Tough words reflect concern on both sides as incidents incite further alarm.

Whipped by tough words from Arab hard-liners and the installation of a new rightist government in Israel, a prickly wind is pushing through the Middle East.

Gusts of inflammatory talk are building, and the rhetoric is warlike and blunt. According to Western diplomats in the region, the rhetoric reflects genuine concerns on both sides.

“What is coming is not a limited danger but a danger of destiny,” Syrian President Hafez Assad declared earlier this week, calling for Arab solidarity. He spoke of conflict and said the Arabs will win on the strength of their numbers.

“Israel is still advanced over Arabs technologically and could inflict on them human disasters in the case of war,” Assad told his Parliament. “But Arabs, with what they own, can exchange the disasters in the same way. . . . Because the Arabs have . . . depth (in population), which Israel lacks, the exchange of disasters would have more weight on the Israelis.”

The tension began tightening three months ago when Israel’s national unity government shattered over deep differences on peace talks with the Palestinians. Weeks later, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein threatened to “burn half of Israel” with chemical weapons if his country were attacked.

Since then, dangerous episodes have incited further alarm. A deranged Israeli civilian shot to death seven Palestinian workers near Tel Aviv in an unprovoked attack, spurring an outburst of violence in Israeli-occupied territories. Then, in a brazen response, guerrillas of a radical faction of the Palestine Liberation Organization tried to raid Israeli beaches; the attack was thwarted by Israeli forces who killed four of the raiders.

On top of it all came the steady immigration of Soviet Jews to Israel, stirring Arab fears of a bolstered enemy.

Anxiety and aggressiveness are clear even to outsiders in the Arab countries.

“I’ve picked a good time to go,” a retiring Western diplomat told a recent visitor to Amman, Jordan, expressing fear that the Middle East is moving towards another of its periodic wars.

Said an American arms salesman who travels widely in the region: “It’s getting goosey out there. I haven’t seen it this bad before. The Arabs think Israel needs a war, and they’re getting hostile as hell.”

A statement Monday by the PLO on the guerrilla raid, received in full text here Tuesday, termed the climate an uncertain “state of no-peace, no-war” and claimed that the PLO has opted for peace.

But the statement also fanned the talk of war, saying, “Everybody knows that the (new) Israeli government is preparing to launch a new war, to escalate its oppression and massacre of Palestinians, to attack the Arab countries and to expand its settlement of our occupied land.”

Added Faisal Husseini, a pro-PLO activist in East Jerusalem: “I think it is a government of war, and I think the decisions of such a government will be a decision of war.”

But Yitzhak Shamir, prime minister of the new government, rejects the Arab chorus that his is a war Cabinet. He told reporters: “We will definitely work with all our power for peace. . . . Our call for direct talks is not an empty declaration but a real and sincere appeal to our neighbors to turn their backs to hostility and war and proceed to the negotiating table. “

Under the policy guidelines of the new government, however, Arab calls for an international peace conference are not acceptable, nor is the Palestinian demand for sovereignty over the occupied territories of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

“It would be crazy on our part to agree to any concession in the area which is the soft belly of the land of Israel when around us we have a hostile ring that has unprecedented military power,” the prime minister said, adding that he will continue Jewish settlement of the territories.

Shamir’s political nemesis, Shimon Peres, who led the Labor Party out of the national unity government, belittled the prospects for peace under the new regime. “Its composition and guidelines are not bringing peace,” he remarked. “It has no ability to change, has no joy of hope. It is a sad government for its members and a sorrowful government for Israel.”

War scenarios abound in the Middle East:

Israel, threatened by advances in military technology by hostile Arab nations--particularly missile-delivery systems--orders a preemptive strike to knock out the systems. Iraq, mentioned as a likely target, has vowed to retaliate with its own “weapons of mass destruction” if Israel attacks with similar arms.

The potential collapse of the U.S. dialogue with the PLO and the rise of radical leadership in the organization leads to stepped-up guerrilla attacks across Israeli borders, prompting an Israeli response.

Determination to put down the Palestinian uprising in the occupied territories prompts an Israeli military operation to push the populace out of the West Bank and into Jordan.

An outbreak of fighting between Arab enemies--Syria and Iraq, for instance--drags Israel into the conflict.

Military analysts say the next Middle East war will be the worst, with all combatants now maintaining missiles and high-performance fighter-bombers, and Israel and several Arab states reported to have chemical warheads. Bringing firepower on a distant target would take a matter of an hour or less.

And ultimately, Israel is reputed to have nuclear warheads as well. The prospects for the loss of civilian life in such a conflict would be high.

“We are not interested in any wars, in any confrontations with our neighbors,” Shamir told Israel Radio before the formation of his government.

The Arab leaders say the same.

“We remain committed to work alongside all local and international forces to realize a just and comprehensive peace in the region. . . ,” proclaimed Monday’s PLO statement.

Nevertheless, the Middle East is clearly in a dangerous passage. The pressure-release of peace talks--or even talks about talks--under the formula supported by the Bush Administration appears dead. Shamir rejects the tacit PLO involvement in such talks. His favored proposal--to make peace with Israel’s Arab neighbors one by one, following the example of Egypt--has so far stirred no open Arab interest.

If the U.S. dialogue with the PLO collapses over the Palestinians’ refusal to specifically condemn last month’s abortive beach raid, Yasser Arafat’s organization could become a loose cannon again. Regional tension and war talk are likely to continue.

BACKGROUND

For a long time, the United States and the Soviet Union controlled the arms race in the Mideast because they provided most of the weaponry. But in recent years, they have lost control as their regional influence declined. Now, many Mideast nations have their own arms industries. Israel, Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iran all have ballistic missiles. Israel is believed to have nuclear and chemical weapons. Iraq and Syria have chemical weapons, and Iraq could have nuclear weapons within the decade. Egypt is believed to have revived its chemical arms program. And Libya also may be producing poison gas.