Bush Budget Plan Expected by Democrats : Deficit: Negotiators say a move today by the Administration could make or break the effort to reduce red ink.

Democratic participants in budget talks said Tuesday that they expect the Bush Administration to make a new proposal today that could make or break the 5-week-old effort to reach bipartisan agreement on a deficit reduction package.

It then should be possible to tell whether an accord can be reached by the end of the month, several participants said.

Until now, the meetings between White House and congressional leaders have amounted to on-the-job training in budget-making and possible ways to cut as much as $50 billion from the deficit expected for the year starting Oct. 1.

With the negotiating phase at hand, however, Democratic lawmakers said they assumed that the next step would be for Budget Director Richard G. Darman to put forward an offer to get the bargaining process moving.

“We understand and hope we’ll have a proposal from the President,” said Sen. Wyche Fowler Jr. (D-Ga.) after Sen. Pete V. Domenici (R-N.M.) predicted that serious negotiations would begin this afternoon.

Rep. Leon E. Panetta (D-Carmel Valley), chairman of the House Budget Committee and a key participant in the meetings, said a Darman proposal would have to reflect the serious nature of the fiscal crisis facing the country.

Today will mark “a critical moment--what happens in that session will tell us an awful lot about whether we engage in frank negotiations or there is going to be a breakdown,” Panetta told reporters.

“It’s very important for the Administration to provide a starting point,” he said.

In a related development, House advocates of a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution claimed success in their drive to force a House vote on the proposal to bar deficit spending unless it is approved by 60% majorities in the House and Senate.

The legislation, bottled up for years in the House Judiciary Committee, was pried loose with the aid of a rarely used procedure known as a discharge petition. It requires the signatures of 218 members--a bare majority of the House.

“This is the most significant event in Congress this year,” said Rep. C. Christopher Cox (R-Newport Beach), a leader in the effort to collect the signatures.

A showdown on the Bush-backed constitutional change is expected sometime in July. A similar amendment was approved last week by the Senate Judiciary Committee on an 11-3 vote, and both sides said they expect a close vote when it comes to the Senate floor later this year.

Proposed constitutional changes require two-thirds majority approval in both chambers and must be ratified by 38 states before they take effect.

Although this is a stringent requirement, proponents of the balanced budget amendment said chances of approval this year are better than ever.