Push Getting Close to Shove? : For Nicaragua, Outside Help May Be Needed (But Not Uncle Sam)

To some extent, street protests and barricades are part of politics in the Third World. So perhaps the Sandinistas are orchestrating the current protests not to overthrow Nicaraguan President Violeta Barrios de Chamorro but to position themselves for upcoming negotiations with her over changes she wants to make in laws the Sandinistas passed when they ran Nicaragua. Maybe.

For now, at least, calm heads on both sides of Nicaraguan politics are urging their followers to cool it. Some Sandinista police, now working for the new government, are trying to maintain order without using undue force. But some anti-Sandinistas, including recently demobilized Contra rebels, are taking things into their own hands, tearing down the barricades and facing off against armed Sandinistas with guns of their own. That’s where the real danger in this crisis lies. The problem is that with so many people in Nicaragua so heavily armed, things can get out of hand very easily, and very bloodily. We’re not talking sticks and stones, after all, but AK-47 rifles.

That’s why it behooves Nicaragua’s neighbors to begin talking about the possibility of intervening in that country if the current crisis boils over. But that means all of Nicaragua’s neighbors, not just the United States. Some in Washington might be tempted to send in the Marines if Chamorro looked to be in danger. That would be a mistake. Instead we should begin consultations with the Organization of American States to prepare for collective action in Nicaragua, if it proves necessary.

Nicaragua is weary after years of civil war, and stands tenuously balanced on a precipice. If it pulls back from the edge, there’s still a chance to rebuild and recover. If it stumbles over, renewed civil war is inevitable.

Nicaragua’s neighbors--especially its most powerful one--must do nothing to increase Nicaragua’s political instability. They should only look on, for now, and hope that Nicaraguans can resolve the crisis among themselves.