12-Team Super Conferences Could Be Look of the Future

The new-found fondness for 12-team “super conferences” in Division I-A is partially due to a playoff and a payoff.

A little-known National Collegiate Athletic Association rule says that any conference of 12 teams or more can have divisional play, as well as a lucrative 12th-game playoff between division winners to determine a league champion.

With that in mind, here’s what the structure of big-time college athletics might look like at the turn of the century.

The Big Ten (and counting): It already had 25% of the nation’s TV market, and it gained more leverage by adding Penn State as its 11th school. Although there’s a four-year moratorium on adding a 12th school--and going to divisions--the moratorium can be broken with seven votes. The conference can look east (Syracuse, Pittsburgh, West Virginia) or to the Big Eight (probably Nebraska) for more schools.

The Big Athletic Coast Conference: A consolidation of the ACC and Big East -- however unlikely -- would set the stage for northern and southern divisions and a hellacious basketball conference (Georgetown and Maryland in the same division?). The ACC could flirt with Miami, Florida State, West Virginia and even former ACC-member South Carolina if it wants to expand.

The Super Southeast: The SEC is wooing Arkansas, Florida State and Miami. Speculation is that Texas and Texas A&M; might abandon the Southwest Conference if Arkansas goes, but Texas politics would indicate otherwise. LSU could be a defector from the SEC.

The Big Southwest: A merger with the Big Eight could save the SWC in several scenarios. The SWC, with 8 percent of the nation’s TV markets, can survive a defection by Arkansas, but not by Texas and A&M.; The only major markets the SWC has are in Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston. There has been talk of bringing Oklahoma in, but the Sooners already get the best Texas recruits. They do not need the SWC.

The Big Pacific: The Pac-10 can merge with the Western Athletic Conference, enhancing its TV market by adding San Diego State, BYU and Air Force, in particular.