Who Will Be the ‘90s Edward R. Murrow?

Who will be the major voices of TV news in the 1990s? Who’s in? Who’s out?

With the decade’s first TV season about to unfold this fall, Dan Rather and Tom Brokaw have clearly faded in the ratings as network audiences shrink.

Big changes ahead.

And in a splendid irony, two special programs--this week’s “Real Life With Jane Pauley” on NBC and Monday’s “Edward R. Murrow: This Reporter” on PBS--suggest the radical and mind-boggling surgery that network TV news has undergone.

In a nutshell, Pauley’s approach as she bids for a weekly prime-time slot is a perfect example of how soft-focus news-magazines have replaced tough documentaries.

Murrow, who is getting a two-part PBS tribute--with the second hour airing Aug. 6--admittedly had a famous lightweight series, “Person to Person,” but to this day he is regarded as TV’s quintessential hard-news reporter.

If early results are an indication, Pauley could emerge as a major prime-time news figure of the ‘90s. The first two of her five summer specials have pulled not only good ratings for the off-season, but good ratings, period.

The question is: Does she have anything to say--other than offering a pleasing approach to feature stories?

In the week of July 16-22, the premiere of “Real Life With Jane Pauley” ranked No. 6 among 89 prime-time network shows, attracting 25% of TV viewers, some obviously curious about how she would fare after getting pushed out of the “Today” show. This week, she beat her competition again, drawing 20% of the audience.

So Pauley is looking good, and if she holds up in her final three summer specials--Aug. 7 and 21 and Sept. 4--count her in as the decade gets under way.

Well, who else?

In the networks’ evening news race, ABC’s Peter Jennings appears to be the unquestioned anchor of the ‘90s with a wide ratings margin over CBS’ Dan Rather and NBC’s Tom Brokaw. Jennings has blitzed both since the beginning of 1990--and for a while before that, as well.

If Brokaw and Rather don’t pick up their ratings within a reasonable period of time, a change of cast could be in order. Perhaps Pauley joining Brokaw--despite NBC denials. Perhaps Connie Chung teaming with Rather.

The sad fact is that Rather and Brokaw are perfectly fine newsmen and anchors from the traditional school of TV news. Not as old as journalists of the Murrow era, they are nonetheless steeped in its best values. But their networks’ affiliate stations will put up with losing for only so long.

ABC certainly starts out the ‘90s as the network to beat in news--not only with Jennings in the evening but Ted Koppel later on with “Nightline.” Like Jennings, Koppel seems entrenched for as long as he wants in the unfolding decade.

On the other hand, it’s hard to believe that ABC’s Diane Sawyer-Sam Donaldson fiasco, “PrimeTime Live,” will continue beyond its reported two-year commitment after next season ends.

ABC’s “20/20” may have a survival crisis in the ‘90s if co-anchors Hugh Downs and Barbara Walters decide to call it a day as they get a little older. CBS’ “60 Minutes,” meanwhile, will probably have to deal with Mike Wallace’s retirement at some point during ‘90s. He’s 72 now.

In terms of personalities, no one co-opted the networks’ news-oriented terrain in the 1980s more than the daytime talk-show hosts who discussed the issues on a very personal level: Oprah Winfrey, Geraldo Rivera, Phil Donahue and Sally Jessy Raphael.

All figure to be around for some years to come--except, perhaps, for Donahue, who has been doing his show for more than 20 years, opened the door for his competitors and now, reportedly, may be thinking of running for political office.

In the networks’ morning news arena, NBC’s “Today” show, plunging ever downward, will have to make a move in the not-too-distant future, or there will be major changes. One possibility, of course, is NBC dumping Deborah Norville if it decides it can’t take the heat--and losses in ratings and revenue--that began after she replaced Pauley.

The “Today” show last week registered its lowest ratings in nearly seven years and was down about 754,000 TV homes from the same week a year ago.

“Today” anchor Bryant Gumbel doesn’t like to lose, and if things continue badly, he might finally decide that enough is enough. Joe Garagiola was brought back just to bring a sense of order and friendliness to the unhappy show, so his tenure is probably limited--maybe a few years, if that much. As for weatherman Willard Scott, he is probably the best candidate to survive because of his public popularity--unless he just gets fed up with the ongoing crisis atmosphere and takes a hike.

ABC’s “Good Morning America,” with Charles Gibson and Joan Lunden, is No. 1 and coasting into the ‘90s. “CBS This Morning” is in the cellar but has an attractive new anchor team in Paula Zahn and Harry Smith.

Probably the most critical news effort for the networks in the ‘90s is persuading the public that there’s really still a reason to pay attention to Rather, Brokaw and even Jennings when you can find out what’s going on by tuning in CNN and “Headline News” at any hour and catch other news alternatives as well on cable and local stations.

More than one expert has speculated that the motive for increasingly dispatching Rather, Brokaw and Jennings to major stories--even when it’s not necessary--is that the networks are desperately searching for a justification to exist in the new competitive climate, something that sets them apart and persuades viewers that they’re not dinosaurs.

CNN has no such desperation. Its first decade was the 1980s, and it figures to get only stronger and stronger in the 1990s. While it prides itself on emphasizing the news rather than its anchors, it does have Bernard Shaw, who surely will continue to flourish during the ‘90s.

And it is quite possible that talk-show host Larry King, CNN’s biggest star and recipient of a new, 5-year, $8.75-million contract, could emerge on a number of fronts during the ‘90s. He has anchored the Goodwill Games; he has other obligations besides his talk show in his new agreement with his boss, Ted Turner, and he has such natural gifts as a reporter that it wouldn’t be surprising to see CNN employ him even more than in the past on major news events.

King is finally getting his public due. He is blossoming more than ever as a significant personality. And if his Oct. 28 NBC special--an hour interview and variety show--is successful, it could propel him to an even greater national prominence as a news-and-interview figure.

On the other hand, what the networks are telling us with such new series as “Real Life With Jane Pauley,” “Face to Face With Connie Chung” and “PrimeTime Live” is that they are heading ever further into the area of soft reporting--human interest at best, mush at worst.

Once upon a time--in Murrow’s time and for years afterward--the idea in TV news was to tell people not only what they wanted to know, but what they ought to know. It is an approach that is all but discarded now in network prime-time specials.

And once upon a time, before TV became a fragmented, zapping experience, there was a thrilling national unity when viewers could look to a great and recognized reporting figure to take us through memorable events. Murrow did it. So did Cronkite and Huntley and Brinkley and a few others, including Rather.

Today? Koppel is our Murrow. He has gone to South Africa and elsewhere to bring us the world as few others can. Yet ABC has still not used him nearly enough at the scene of big stories as the voice--and eyes and ears--of America. The ‘90s would be a fine time to get him out from behind that “Night-line” desk more often and let him fulfill that role.