CRISIS IN THE PERSIAN GULF : Travel Business Is Surging, at Least for the Time Being

Travelers trying to beat impending fare hikes are temporarily boosting business for airlines and travel agents, but the surge could be followed by leaner times over the next few months.

Travel officials say it will be a while before they can assess the impact on their industry of higher fuel prices set off by the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. Most summer travelers have already booked or paid for their vacations to take advantage of discounts. American Airlines, for example, says half its available seats for the next two months have already been sold.

“People have planned their vacations and have already committed themselves,” said Joan Bullard, spokeswoman for Universal Studios Hollywood, which depends on out-of-town visitors for 75% of its attendance. “I don’t think we expect to see anything happen to attendance unless there is a crisis.”

Previous gas shortages and price hikes, however, forced travelers to scale down vacations or take trips closer to home.

“People who are on vacation have a set budget, and any time one portion of their vacation goes up in cost, they have to cut out or cut back on another part of their vacation,” said William Bohannon, general manager of Fred Harvey Co., which manages the hotels at the Grand Canyon.

If such cutbacks occur, they will hit an industry already hurting from a decline in vacation and business travel as consumers and companies--fearing a possible recession--have already started trimming discretionary spending. Attendance at most Southland theme parks, for example, lags last year.

So far, the only immediate result of higher fuel prices has been felt at airlines and travel agents. United Airlines reported a “moderate” surge in reservations after it announced a 5.3% fare increase to take effect Aug. 15, and American Airlines added reservations agents to handle additional calls.

Yvonne Deboer, assistant manager of Uniglobe Westside Travel in Santa Monica, this week reported a flurry of inquiries and purchases from travelers trying to beat airline-ticket price increases.

“They’re trying to buy before the increases go into effect,” she said.

Even travel to the Middle East--excluding Iraq and Kuwait, where borders have been closed--has not slowed. Because they primarily serve business travelers, flights to Saudi Arabia are more immune to threats of aggression than those serving tourists, who are more likely to cancel plans when danger looms.

Saudi Arabian Airlines reported increased or normal traffic on its five nonstops a week between New York and Saudi Arabia. Many of its passengers are returning to Saudi Arabia after vacationing in the United States. Pan American World Airways also reported its twice-weekly flights from the United States to Saudi Arabia flying full.

El Al Israel Airlines, the country’s national airline, reported typical loads on its 15 weekly flights from New York to Israel. The airline also reported normal bookings for August, September and October.

But the boom in bookings, which often occurs before fare hikes take effect, might be the last bit of good news if fuel prices keep rising, forcing fares even higher.

“It’s realistic to expect some type of drop-off,” said American Airlines spokesman Tim Smith. “But we don’t know how fast it will occur.”

Despite rising more than 16 cents a gallon since Aug. 1, the price of gasoline has not alarmed many travel firms heavily dependent on motorists. The American Automobile Assn. estimates that a family of four on vacation spends $8.40 a day on gas and maintenance, compared to $173 for meals and lodging.

“Since gasoline represents such a small part of their budget anyway, the immediate reaction from most motorists (to price increases) is a lot of anger,” said AAA spokesman Jerry Cheske. “That doesn’t mean in turn that they will cancel vacations.”

“The key for us is availability rather than price,” said Rob Powers, spokesman for the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority. “We don’t see (the current rise in gas prices) having a detrimental impact on the number of visitors.”

Carnival Cruise Lines, the nation’s largest, says that fuel accounts for only a small portion--about 3%--of operating costs and would have to rise dramatically to affect fares. “We are not planning any price increases as a result of this,” said Carnival spokesman Tim Gallagher.

A prolonged rise in gas prices might even might work to the advantage of some businesses.

“We won’t be dramatically affected by it because so much of our business is right here in our back yard,” said Courtney Simmons, spokeswoman for Six Flags Magic Mountain, the Valencia amusement park that draws 80% of its visitors from Southern California.

Lake Tahoe resorts rely heavily on nearby tourists from Sacramento and San Francisco, said Laurie Armstrong, public affairs director for the Lake Tahoe Visitors Authority.

“Instead of taking that trip to Florida or flying to Hawaii or driving to Montana, people might say, ‘Let’s go to back to Lake Tahoe,’ ” said Armstrong.