U.S. Trade Deficit Hits 7-Year Low : Economy: Trend hailed but analysts warn that oil imports could become a growing future problem.

Record exports and shrinking oil imports helped push the nation’s merchandise trade deficit to a seven-year low in June, the government reported today. But analysts saw oil as a problem in coming months because of the Mideast crisis.

The Commerce Department said the deficit dropped to $5.07 billion--a 34.7% decline from $7.77 billion in May and the lowest since a $3.96-billion imbalance was posted in June, 1983.

Commerce Secretary Robert A. Mosbacher, who had joined many analysts earlier in predicting the deficit would drop significantly this year, was quick to note the record $34.29 billion in exports.

“While the month-to-month figures can be erratic, the strong, positive trend indicates increasing U.S. export competitiveness in the world marketplace,” he said.

The 4.6% increase in exports included not only $500 million in aircraft shipments but gains in other business capital equipment as well.

Bruce Steinberg, senior economist at Merrill Lynch, called the exports “good news” because that sector “was the only part of the economy with any strength” in June.

Gilbert Benz, an economist at the Swiss Bank Corp. in New York, said the figure will boost the second-quarter gross national product, which earlier had been estimated to have grown a meager 1.2%.

“It’s the one component that might help us skate around a recession in the second half of the year,” Benz said.

Imports declined 2.9% to $39.37 billion, helped by a $631-million drop in oil costs.

Oil imports in June fell 14.6% to $3.69 billion. Americans imported 8.40 million barrels a day, down from 8.95 billion in May.

The deficit is the difference between imports and exports and, for the first six months, was running at an annual rate of $91.62 billion. If it ended the year at that pace, it would be the first deficit since 1983 under $100 billion.

Analysts were quick, however, to toss in the Middle East caveat.

“The Persian Gulf crisis is already generating oil price increases which likely will contribute to a worsening trade deficit in the future,” said John Howard, international finance director at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.