. . . And May the Better Pose Win : O’Connor and Madonna--singers with cultivated, nearly opposite images--face off in a race for MTV video honors

“Strike the pose,” Madonna commands in “Vogue,” without specifying exactly which pose she has in mind. The one of your choice, most likely, given her tendency to preach the religion of freedom of expression, but all the better if your pose is glamorous, sexually alluring, aloof.

But is Sinead O’Connor striking the pose?

“Nothing Compares 2 U”--the video--has O’Connor staring intently at an unflinching camera, singing her sob story of romantic regret until she literally leaks a tear. With low energy, relatively few edits and even fewer adornments, this stark clip is in some ways the opposite of Madonna’s.

Many viewers find it quite touching, and some have been moved to tears themselves. A few, though, see a blurring of the line between confession and calculation, and wonder if O’Connor’s in-your-face approach to soul-baring is any less of an “image” than Madonna’s preening narcissism.

In any case, these two sharply contrasting videos are the most likely bets to win top honors on Thursday night when the MTV Video Music Awards show is telecast live once again from the Universal Amphitheatre at 6 p.m. on MTV (KTTV Channel 11 will show it on Sept. 12). The telecast will include a musical performance from the Material Voguer herself, who has the most nominations with eight. But don’t count out a win in the top category for O’Connor, who (with the possible exception of M. C. Hammer) is the pop success story of the year.

This isn’t the Grammys, for better or worse. Hardly anyone tunes in in actual anticipation of the envelopes being torn open: The real fun is who takes part in the telecast as performers and presenters, not who wins. Also scheduled for a song at the MTV Awards are Hammer, 2 Live Crew, Janet Jackson, Aerosmith, Phil Collins, Motley Crue, INXS and Faith No More. A New Edition reunion is in the cards; a partial Eagles reunion is also rumored.

Here’s a look at the nominees in key MTV categories and how we’d cast our ballot.

Best Video of the Year: Aerosmith (“Janie’s Got a Gun”), Don Henley (“The End of the Innocence”), Madonna (“Vogue”), Sinead O’Connor (“Nothing Compares 2 U”).

The battle among voters here is probably between the pop tart and the bald balladeer, but Aerosmith and Henley are also formidable contenders. Interestingly, the first three of these four nominees were directed by one man, David Fincher. (John Maybury directed O’Connor.)

In the band’s best song of the ‘80s, Aerosmith tackled the touchiest subject of any--incest--and somehow managed to turn it into a teen revenge fantasy tune by having the victim go after her father with a firearm. In Fincher’s so-so video, the narrative footage is outweighed by shots of Steven Tyler and company in concert. This has not been a public service announcement.

Henley’s clip has to carry the weight of its earnestness, but it’s the best work here. Director Fincher admirably captures Henley’s twin concerns--loss of personal innocence through sex, loss of national innocence through politics--and threads them together in a half-nostalgic, half-contemporary visual tapestry that encompasses both grassy fields and Oliver North.

But if “The End of the Innocence” is the most finely crafted video here (and will probably win Fincher an award in the best director category), O’Connor turns in the most impressive performance , which is hardly negligible.

“Nothing Compares” might even turn out to be influential in the hoped-for turning of the tide of videos away from brain-numbing montages toward a less dazzling kind of filmmaking that focuses in on artist’s essence. Affecting, affected or both, O’Connor achieved some kind of rare emotional connection with her audience, and her probable win will be a good omen for the video industry, and rock in general.

Best New Artist in a Video: Bell Biv Devoe (“Poison”), Jane Child (“Don’t Want to Fall in Love”), Black Crowes (“Jealous Again”), Lenny Kravitz (“Let Love Rule”), Alannah Myles (“Black Velvet”), Michael Penn (“No Myth”), Lisa Stansfield (“All Around the World”).

This category, more than any other, has tended to be a barometer of popular thought on the artist (and the artist’s potential) far more than on the video itself.

Of the seven nominees, only dance-pop wunderkind Child seems a complete lightweight, a probable one-or-two-hit wonder. Myles introduced herself with one of the year’s great singles, but didn’t ingratiate herself by pouting and posing all the way through her video--she does the Vogue, in the true sense of the term, even better than Madonna.

Sentiment is understandably mixed on the incredibly derivative Black Crowes (prospects for these “new Stones”: dim) and Kravitz (prospects: brighter, especially if we go to war and there’s a niche for hippie music again). Penn is a real talent on record, but his obscure, metaphor-heavy introspection isn’t exactly ready-made for the camera--Felliniesque fat women extras notwithstanding.

That leaves Stansfield and Bell Biv Devoe as the most likely contenders. Despite some de rigueur dancing from the group, the clip for BBD’s playfully wimmen-dissin’ “Poison” only heightens the tame misogyny in the lyric.

Stansfield is our pick, by default--an arresting dance-music presence whose appeal is not in her cleavage or her shoes (neither of which we see), but in her voice and her genuinely soulful sensibility. Disco never sounded, or looked, so classy.

Best Male Video: Billy Idol (“Cradle of Love”), Don Henley (“The End of the Innocence”), M. C. Hammer (“U Can’t Touch This”), Michael Penn (“No Myth”).

Idol can’t be said to give much of a performance in “Cradle”; he’s merely a face in a frame on a living room wall, witness to a randy seduction. His clip ought to be nominated in some category, however--like Best Video Filmed Around a Hospitalized Star Who Could Only Be Filmed from the Neck Up.

And if the criteria for voting involve what kind of performance the singer actually gives in the clip, count Henley, who hates making videos, out as well; his basic lip-sync shots certainly play a purposeful second fiddle in “Innocence” to the predominant imagery of lost youth and lost country. Likewise for Penn’s underplaying.

The best male performance, then, clearly belongs to rapper M. C. Hammer, who burst out of the box with a craftily edited, joyously choreographed exercise in pure dancing exuberance.

Best Female Video: Madonna (“Vogue”), Sinead O’Connor (“Nothing Compares 2 U”), Alannah Myles (“Black Velvet”), Paula Abdul (“Opposites Attract”), Michelle Shocked (“On the Greener Side”).

If the self-promotion of Myles and Madonna is negligible, that leaves O’Connor, waxing brutally honest, in a song written by Prince; Abdul, waxing cute, and Shocked, waxing cute ironically.

Playing off an animated pair of alley cats, Abdul is a fetching duet partner for man or beast, and her cartoon choreography is impressive.

Abdul has to get the final nod over Shocked, who turned in a one-joke video--albeit a funny one-joke video--that was the feminist inverse of Robert Palmer’s lobotomized-gal clips, complete with equal-time male beefcake.

Best Group Video: Aerosmith (“Janie’s Got a Gun”), B-52’s (“Love Shack”), Midnight Oil (“Blue Sky Mine”), Red Hot Chili Peppers (“Higher Ground”), Tears for Fears (“Sowing the Seeds of Love”).

No contest: The B-52’s deserved a comeback and achieved it in large part from the adorably vivacious video for “Love Shack,” which created a palpable Shangri-La of a daytime dance hall hidden around some humid little corner in Georgia. Directions not included, alas.

Best Metal/Hard Rock Video: Motley Crue (“Kickstart My Heart”), Slaughter (“Up All Night”), Aerosmith (“Janie’s Got a Gun”), Faith No More (“Epic”).

Slaughter and the Crue can be dismissed out of hand, having offered the macho rites of post-teen poseurs . Aerosmith obviously enjoys the greatest popularity, with or without the accompanying weight of history, but Faith No More is enjoying a tremendous underdog surge. Including shots of a literal fish out of water may be a cheap way to get attention, but it helps make Faith’s video even more vivid than Aerosmith’s lurid, tuneful anti-incest anthem.

Best Dance Video: Paula Abdul (“Opposites Attract”), Janet Jackson (“Rhythm Nation”), M . C . Hammer (“U Can’t Touch This”), Madonna (“Vogue”).

Jackson should have been nominated for “Alright,” her colorful, joyful tribute to movie musicals, not “Rhythm Nation,” her curiously austere black-and-white tribute to--what, film noir ? Madonna, for her part, gets in some fancy footwork in “Vogue,” but more of the screen time is indeed unfortunately dedicated to the title dance, a rapid succession of hand and arm movements around the head notable principally for making the practitioner look really goofy. Both Abdul and Hammer, though, are real delights; call their contest a draw.

Best Rap Video: Digital Underground (“The Humpty Dance”), M . C . Hammer (“U Can’t Touch This”), Biz Markie (“Just a Friend”), Young M . C . (“Principal’s Office”).

Young M. C.’s lighthearted, teen-oriented clip plays like a long, lame set-up for a punch line that never comes, kind of like his current cola commercial. Digital Underground throws a party for y’all, but like most filmed parties, you kinda had to be there. Biz Markie’s romantic lament is genuinely funny--he’s one of the few rappers who allows himself to sound pitiful, not prideful, while talking about how he’s been dissed by some cheatin’ girlfriend. But M. C. Hammer is the best value for your basic-cable entertainment dollar, hands down. He’s no great rapper, but when it comes to putting on a show, they can’t touch that.

Best Post-Modern Video: Depeche Mode (“Personal Jesus”), Sinead O’Connor (“Nothing Compares 2 U”), Red Hot Chili Peppers (“Higher Ground”), Tears for Fears (“Sowing the Seeds of Love”).

All four songs in this “alternative rock” category are fine efforts from their respective sources, but the two most arresting visual schemes are Tears’ “Seeds of Love,” for its heady special visual effects, and O’Connor’s “Nothing Compares,” for, well, her heady special visual effects. Nothing compares to Lt. Saavik overcoming her half-Vulcan side and getting all emotional for the camera.