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Revised GNP Data Shows Slow Growth : Economy: The report of a 0.4% gain in the second quarter further fuels fears of a recession.

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From Associated Press

The economy grew at a barely perceptible 0.4% annual rate during the second quarter, an even worse performance than first believed, the government said today. Many analysts believe that it is sliding into a recession.

The Commerce Department’s revised report on the gross national product--the total output of the nation’s goods and services--was the lowest since an 0.3% rate was posted in the final quarter of 1989.

It was a reminder of how precarious the economy was even before Iraq invaded Kuwait on Aug. 2, resulting in a dramatic increase in the price of oil.

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At the White House, presidential spokesman Marlin Fitzwater said the drop in economic growth “is certainly cause for concern.”

“It’s not good news. The number is very low,” Fitzwater said. “Obviously we are concerned about the economy and the growth rate.

“We don’t believe we are in a recession right now,” he added.

Since oil is used in producing so many consumer goods as well as for heating and transportation, any price increase not only slashes available funds needed to feed economic growth but also fuels inflation.

Both of the department’s two earlier estimates put economic growth at a lackluster 1.2% rate from April through June. The final revision was due to lower inventories and smaller exports than first believed.

The GNP rose at a 1.7% annual rate in the first quarter, down from 2.5% in 1989 and 4.5% in 1988.

At the same time, a price index tied to the GNP was unchanged at an annual rate of 3.9%. But with the surge in oil prices, inflation as measured in the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.8% in August alone and the higher prices will be reflected in the third-quarter GNP.

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The price of oil before the Iraqi invasion was less than $20 a barrel. It posted a record $38 a barrel on Monday.

Many economists say the Persian Gulf crisis may be the death sentence for an economic expansion lasting nearly eight years since the 1981-82 recession.

Half of the top economists surveyed each month by Blue Chip Economic Indicators now believe that the economy will enter a recession this year.

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