Abortion Fades as Issue for 1990 Political Races : Elections: Many call it a no-win topic. Persian Gulf, economy, crime, taxes are more immediate concerns.

Last spring, abortion was thought to be developing into one of the definitive issues of the 1990 elections. But except in scattered races, candidates have either ignored the issue, mentioned it in passing or lumped it among several issues they hope will attract support.

The chief reason is that the economy, the Persian Gulf, crime and the threat of higher taxes have become more immediate concerns. “In general abortion has less of a chance to totally redefine a race in 1990,” said Washington, D.C-based pollster Celinda Lake.

The intense political interest spurred by the July, 1989, U.S. Supreme Court decision giving states more power to restrict abortions clearly has diminished. For many politicians who see abortion as a no-win issue no matter what stand they take, that is good news. But some analysts believe the issue can still make a difference in close races.

In general, “Abortion plays an important role in determining the last 3 to 5% of a race,” said Lake. Voters are thus likely to see more ads addressing the issue in the final days of the campaign, she said, as strategists try to pick up “that last critical percentage.”

Some states where the issue is playing a key role:

NORTH CAROLINA: Longtime Republican incumbent Sen. Jesse Helms now trails in some polls to Democrat Harvey Gantt, the black former mayor of Charlotte. Gantt is an abortion rights advocate and Helms opposes abortion.

OREGON: Democrat Harry Lonsdale, a businessman who has not held public office, has focused on abortion--along with logging and anti-incumbent sentiment--in an effort to unseat 24-year GOP Senate veteran Mark O. Hatfield. Public opinion surveys show Lonsdale, who advocates abortion rights, leading Hatfield, who has supported a constitutional amendment to ban abortion. The state ballot also includes two initiatives to restrict abortion.

FLORIDA: A recent poll found that abortion could be “pivotal” in a tight race for governor between Democrat Lawton Chiles, who supports legalized abortion, and incumbent Republican Bob Martinez, who opposes it.

IOWA: Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin, an abortion rights advocate, is in a dead heat for reelection against GOP Rep. Tom Tauke, who is opposed to abortion. “Our strategy is to provide the margin of victory,” said Shelley Bain, state director of the National Abortion Rights Action League of Iowa.

PENNSYLVANIA: Both sides expected abortion to play a big role in the Pennsylvania governor’s race, but it hasn’t turned out that way. Pennsylvania’s Legislature was the first to pass a restrictive abortion control bill--later stalled by the courts--with the support of Democratic Gov. Robert P. Casey. Republicans nominated abortion rights proponent Barbara Hafer to challenge him.

But Hafer has been lagging 40 points behind Casey in polls, for reasons attributed to a weak and under-funded campaign, as well as blunders unrelated to the abortion issue. “She was never able to establish herself as a viable candidate,” said Michael Young, political science professor at Pennsylvania State University.

In an effort to make the issue work for her, Hafer is now airing a television ad in which an assailant, presumably a rapist, attacks a woman in the dark of night. Viewers are then told Casey opposes abortion “even for victims of rape and incest,” and Hafer vows “to make sure women’s lives are never threatened that way again.”

At this point in the race, Young said, “That’s high stakes, high-risk politics.”

“Can abortion save a candidacy? I don’t know,” said Kate Michelman, executive director of the National Abortion Rights Action League, the Washington, D.C.-based political arm of the abortion rights movement. “I think it’s a long shot. Abortion can be a powerful issue but it can’t make a campaign.”

Sandra Faucher, director of the political action committee of the National Right to Life Committee, the largest anti-abortion group in the United States, also believes it is not enough. “Both sides of the abortion issue are actually dealing with a small increment of single-issue voters who are willing to cross all party lines and vote on this issue and this issue only,” she said. “The vast majority of people in the middle are not going to base their choice on abortion.”

Marlys Popma, head of Iowa’s Right to Life Committee, said abortion “gets more attention than other issues in media time . . . (but) whoever pushes it right now with the general populace may lose, because I think people are really getting sick of it.”

Since the Supreme Court’s Roe vs. Wade decision established abortion as a right, few elections have hinged on the issue. A study analyzing federal contests between 1974 and 1986 “failed to find even one instance where abortion swung a federal election,” said Corey Richards, public policy vice president for the Alan Guttmacher Institute, a nonprofit research organization affiliated with Planned Parenthood.

Even now, the issue is more likely to be important only in certain kinds of local races, he said. “You need an otherwise close race where the opponents are clearly different, and where there aren’t other issues important in the campaign.”

Faucher of the Right to Life Committee noted that the issue itself is becoming more complicated. Polls show self-declared supporters of legal abortion may take apparent anti-abortion positions when questioned about the actual circumstances under which abortion should be performed, she said. For example, one Oregon initiative that would require women under 18 to notify one parent before getting an abortion indicates the issue is moving beyond simple semantics, she said.

At this rate, the 1990 election is unlikely to produce a clear-cut winner between the anti-abortion and abortion rights forces. The Times’ political analyst William Schneider believes abortion would be more important this year had the Supreme Court decision been followed by restrictive legislation in many states. But not only did Pennsylvania’s measure get stalled in the courts, other bills in Louisiana and Idaho ended up being vetoed by their respective governors.

“Abortion is a potential threat that has not materialized yet,” Schneider said. “If the Supreme court were to reverse Roe vs. Wade I think the issue would have a lot more salience.”