LOCAL ELECTIONS: PROPOSITION J : Backers of New 911 System Are Not Optimistic

Barring some natural disaster to shake up the voters before Election Day, backers of a Los Angeles ballot proposition to raise taxes for a new 911 system are predicting a difficult road to passage.

“I’m not quite sure what could happen between now and then that could turn the tide,” said James McDermott, the political consultant who is running the campaign for the 911 measure, called Proposition J. “Maybe if we have an earthquake and nobody can get through.”

In a last-ditch effort to make voters aware of the proposition, backers began a 10-day radio campaign on Saturday. Plans to reach voters through a direct-mail campaign were abandoned for lack of funds.

Supporters of Proposition J, largely police and city officials, fear that the measure will be lost among a confounding array of proposals placed before the voters next Tuesday.

“It’s a very long ballot and we’re at the end of the ballot,” McDermott said. “There’s a lot of concern that people are upset about government in general and they’re just going to say, ‘No. No. No.’ ”

Los Angeles police officials have been arguing for several years that a new 911 system is desperately needed to handle the burgeoning number of calls to emergency operators. About 100,000 calls to 911 will go unanswered this year, police officials predict, as will nearly a million non-emergency calls. The problem, they say, is an outmoded system that must be replaced.

At the same time, the Police Department would like to replace the single center now operating in a sub-basement downtown with two facilities--one in the Central City and the other in the San Fernando Valley. Police officials argue that an earthquake or other natural disaster in a one-center system could knock out virtually all emergency communication for the city.

Proposition J asks city voters to approve $235 million in bonds that will be paid off over 20 years.

The measure, which needs approval by two-thirds of the voters, will cost the owner of the average 1,500-square-foot home an average of $12.50 per year for the next 20 years, according to an analysis done for the city by Kelling, Northcross & Nobriga Inc., a bond management service. In its peak years, the measure could add as much as $26.25 to the average tax bill, the analysis shows.

In all, the new 911 centers would cost $105 million, leaving $130 million to replace and expand the police radio system.

The radio project would allow the Police Department to begin using 39 radio channels alloted in 1988 by the Federal Communications Commission. If the channels remain unused past the end of 1995, the department will have to forfeit them.

The current center, which opened in 1984 after more than a decade of planning and years of delays, cost $50 million and was obsolete and overloaded almost from the beginning.

Fifty-eight police operators, about half answering 911 lines, sit at computer terminals in a darkened and windowless room. Unmovable keyboards have contributed to the development of wrist and hand problems, Lewallen said, and the glare produced by the unmovable terminal screens necessitates dim lighting.

But the key problem is the limited number of terminals that can be devoted to 911 calls. During the day, most calls are answered immediately, but on the evening shift overloads frequently occur, he added.

The problem reached a critical point this year on the Fourth of July, when a record 9,000 calls came in on the evening shift. That number includes all calls from the public, on both 911 and seven-digit lines.

The bond fund request has met with almost no resistance and little debate on the City Council, which gave it unanimous approval.

Passage of Proposition J seemed brighter earlier this year, but the crisis in Kuwait, the nation’s economic downturn and the prospect of higher federal taxes have combined to dim its prospects, supporters say.

“In six months, the economy has gone sideways on us,” said Capt. Gregory R. Berg, who is working on the Proposition J campaign.

“These city propositions, especially in November election, don’t tend to be too exciting to people,” he added. “We’re being crowded out by Big Green, nickel-a-drink, and term limitations. . . . But I still hold out a little hope.”

The large number of candidates and ballot measures has made fund raising for Proposition J “pretty tough,” said McDermott, the political consultant. “Campaign dollars are stretched pretty thin.”

McDermott had initially planned a $300,000 campaign, but only $60,000 to $70,000 has been raised, he said. The radio campaign alone will cost $50,000, he said.

Radio ads will run on middle-of-the-road and all-talk stations until Election Day. “We’re trying to find spots that have the widest listenership . . . and we’re targeting people who we think are going to be voters,” McDermott said.

One ad is based on a Fourth of July incident in which 2-year-old Brandon Lott was paralyzed in a drive-by shooting. Because 911 lines were busy, the child’s relatives spent more than 20 minutes trying to summon help.

Another ad focuses on what might happen during an earthquake if the city has only one communication center. The third commercial features a dramatic tape-recording of a real incident in which a police officer called for help for his injured partner.

“If we do the job and get the message out, we believe people will vote for it,” McDermott said. “But it’s not a sure thing. You’re talking about an uphill battle.”