<i> Perestroika, Si</i> , <i> Glasnost, </i> No? : Mexico’s Salinas has a lot of persuading to do

Mexico’s President Carlos Salinas de Gortari took office in 1988 under two very dark clouds, one political and the other economic. In his annual State of the Union speech Thursday, Salinas was far enough along with a radical transformation of the Mexican system that he could argue with some confidence that both clouds are dissipating. Are they?

Financially, Mexico as a whole is better off than when Salinas was inaugurated--even if millions of individual Mexicans are struggling with austerity as the nation climbs out of an economic depression. But politically Salinas still hasn’t opened up Mexico’s electoral system enough.

First, the good news: In just two years under Salinas, what had once been a protected economy has become one of the world’s most open. Mexican industries once off-limits, like mining, are now open to investment and even ownership by foreigners. And what had been one of the most spendthrift governments in the world has imposed cost controls that make the feared Gramm-Rudman cuts in this country seem mild by comparison. Most important, Salinas has Mexico’s economy growing again. In 1990, he told his audience, gross domestic product will rise by more than population growth for the second consecutive year. Considering how many young unemployed Mexicans migrate north looking for work, that’s important to both countries.

Also important to them is the rapid movement toward a free trade pact like that which the United States has with Canada. Salinas said formal negotiations on the trade agreement will begin in 1991. That means he could sign an agreement well before the end of his six-year term in office, making it hard for any of his successors to reverse course.

But don’t doubt for a second that there are Mexican political leaders who would turn the clock back on Salinas’ economic reforms. And plenty of Mexican voters who would elect them to office to do just that if they had the chance.

Which raises the issue of political reform: Salinas cited some new electoral laws designed to make Mexican elections fairer and more honest. But putting new laws on the books is one thing. Making them work is quite another. So far, his government’s record is decidedly mixed.

Millions of Mexicans remain convinced that the powerful Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) stole the presidential election for Salinas two years ago. Only the unexpected victory of a rival party’s candidate as governor of Baja California stands as evidence that Salinas and the PRI are willing to surrender power when they lose elections. The next test will come in 1991, when mid-term congressional elections are held. And if Salinas means what he says about reforming the Mexican system, he must be prepared to accept political openness--and the defeats that come with it--along with the new open economy.

Until Mexican voters have some confidence that the ballots they cast will be counted honestly, the Mexican and foreign investors that Salinas is urging to put money into Mexico will lack the full confidence they need to help his economic reforms along.