COUNTY ELECTIONS : Incumbents Face Test of Voter Revolt : Ballots: Orange County is traditionally a safe haven for the status quo, but several officeholders risk being tossed by the storm of dissatisfaction.

Orange County residents are among the happiest, most optimistic in California, polls show, and when it comes to voting for new policies or candidates they usually like to keep things just the way they are.

These days, though, the scandals and fiascoes that have rocked Washington and Sacramento are buffeting the Orange County electorate as they are voters everywhere else. Orange County residents are mad too, but are they mad enough to vote for change on Tuesday?

Probably not, some local experts say. They may be unhappy with the performance of their government, but they don’t blame their local representatives.

“There is a strong anti-incumbent feeling here,” said Republican consultant Harvey Englander. “But it’s not that my assemblyman or my councilman is bad--they’re all bad.”

But Eileen Padberg, also a Republican strategist, said she expects this race to reveal some signs that Orange County voters are ready to express their frustration at the polls. There were already indications, she said, in the June primary when an unknown candidate who never campaigned still managed to score about 40% of the vote against Supervisor Thomas F. Riley.

“I think we will see the beginning of anti-incumbency feelings,” Padberg said. “I would not want to be a countywide incumbent up this year.”

There are a handful of races on Tuesday’s ballot that will test voter sentiment:

* Harriett M. Wieder is the first incumbent Orange County supervisor to be forced into a runoff election in 10 years. Still, she is the odds-on favorite against the little-known and under-funded Joy L. Neugebauer, a city councilwoman in Westminster.

* Mike Capizzi, who was appointed district attorney by the supervisors earlier this year, is in a close race against his office colleague, James Enright, the county’s chief deputy district attorney. Capizzi is backed by the full force of Orange County’s Republican Establishment, but he was slightly behind Enright in a recent Times Orange County poll.

* Robert Peterson, Orange County schools superintendent for 24 years, was outpolled for the first time in his career when Whittier College professor John F. Dean finished first in the June primary and forced the incumbent into a runoff. But like the district attorney’s race, polls find many voters are still undecided.

* Curt Pringle, the Republican assemblyman from Garden Grove, is in California’s most hotly contested race for the Legislature as he faces Democratic challenger Tom Umberg. This race appears to be coming down to the wire and, with about 50 pieces of mail sent by the two campaigns, much of it filled with attacks, it has become an ugly brawl.

Orange County voters will also be asked for the third time whether they want a sales tax increase to help pay for such transportation improvements as road construction and rail transit. The latest version of Measure M is a half-cent sales tax almost identical to the one that lost at the polls last November, 53% to 47%.

In addition to local races, Orange County voters are expected to play a key role in many statewide contests.

All of the GOP statewide candidates need a strong showing in Republican-rich Orange County, but gubernatorial candidate Pete Wilson’s forces have conducted an especially aggressive campaign in the area. The state and county Republican parties have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to register voters, and they have opened several party headquarters throughout the county.

In the search for votes, they have recently hosted President Bush, Vice President Dan Quayle and former President Ronald Reagan.

The rule of thumb for Republican strategists is that their candidates need to win in Orange County by a margin of at least 200,000 votes to offset Democratic majorities in Los Angeles and San Francisco.

A poll last week prepared for The Times found Wilson leading Democrat Dianne Feinstein 2 to 1 in Orange County, well ahead of the 200,000-vote margin he has to achieve.

Other Republicans weren’t doing as well, however. The poll found Orange County’s own state Sen. Marian Bergeson (R-Newport Beach) running against Democratic Lt. Gov. Leo T. McCarthy, just short of the margin she should have in Orange County. Compared to earlier polls, though, she had substantially increased her lead over the incumbent among Orange County voters.

Orange County is home to one other candidate on the statewide campaign trail--Wes Bannister, the Republican nominee for state insurance commissioner. Bannister is a city councilman from Huntington Beach who is facing state Sen. John Garamendi (D-Walnut Grove).

On some of the major statewide propositions, Orange County also appeared to be voting with the rest of the state, according to polls. Proposition 128, called “Big Green” by supporters and the “Hayden Initiative” by critics, was slightly ahead but still a close contest.

And the two propositions that would limit terms of state lawmakers were both supported by about two-thirds of the Orange County electorate, a reflection of voters’ unhappiness with Sacramento.

Seven in 10 voters even favored a two-term limit for county supervisors, although such a proposal is not on the ballot. The sentiment, however, led pollster Mark Baldassare to conclude that voters are “not terribly thrilled with the job that anyone’s doing.”

Some political observers believe the frustration and negative campaign advertising will deter voters, leading to predictions of an abnormally low turnout, possibly around 50% of those registered. County Registrar of Voters Donald Tanney has predicted a 55% to 60% turnout, just below what it has been in Orange County in the last two gubernatorial races.

Tanney said there are some key races and issues on the ballot to draw voters out, but he added: “There are no crystal balls. (Voters) are concerned about the length of the ballot and the complexity of the issues and that could have a negative effect on turnout too.”

The five Republican congressmen who represent Orange County will appear on Tuesday’s ballot, but none are thought to be in jeopardy.

One Orange County state senator, Ed Royce (R-Anaheim), will also be seeking reelection against Democrat Evelyn Colon Becktell.

And all eight of Orange County’s assembly seats will be on the ballot. One race of consequence is in the 58th Assembly District, where a new legislator will be chosen to fill a vacancy left by the resignation of Assemblyman Dennis Brown (R-Long Beach).

Huntington Beach Mayor Tom Mays, a Republican, won a heated primary in June and is facing Democrat Luanne W. Pryor of Long Beach. The heavily Republican district stretches along the county’s coast from Huntington Beach into Long Beach.

In the other Assembly races, the only incumbent who appears in serious jeopardy is Pringle, whose district includes Stanton and parts of Santa Ana, Westminster, Garden Grove and Anaheim. In fact, both state parties consider the race for Pringle’s 72nd Assembly District seat to be the most hotly contested legislative contest in California.

As a result, the race has seen a massive, all-out campaign from both parties, particularly Republicans. Any registered voter in this district has heard plenty about this race--some may say too much.

The campaigns have sent out at least 50 pieces of mail, sometimes giving voters up to four letters in one day. In addition, independent expenditure committees campaigning for their candidate have added dozens of more letters, posters and phone calls.

Pringle, 31, has relied heavily on an appeal that portrays him as a vital member of the Republican Party who is essential to achieving the GOP’s goals. That message has been delivered by such major Republican personalities as Quayle, who made two visits for Pringle, Gov. George Deukmejian and Reagan, who was in Garden Grove on Friday.

Umberg, on the other hand, has attempted to disconnect himself from the Democratic Party, saying that he would not hesitate to challenge the Sacramento leadership to get tougher crime laws. Umberg, a 35-year-old former federal prosecutor, has rarely made any public appearances with party officials or lawmakers.

The two have also demonstrated some key differences. They are split on abortion, Pringle opposes abortion rights and Umberg supports them. Pringle has also endorsed Proposition 140, to limit terms of state lawmakers, while Umberg opposes it. And Umberg favors the Big Green environmental proposition, while Pringle opposes it.

Another race with high stakes is Wieder’s bid for a fourth term as the county supervisor from Huntington Beach against Westminster Councilwoman Neugebauer.

Incumbent supervisors in Orange County are usually considered almost unbeatable because of their access to huge campaign war chests and partly because of the low profile of their office, especially in urban parts of the county.

Wieder’s race will be watched closely for indications that the supervisors are no longer so insulated. But despite being forced into a runoff, she still appears to be a favorite for reelection.

Wieder is endorsed by every mayor and most city council members of the cities within her district: Seal Beach, Huntington Beach, Los Alamitos, Cypress, Stanton, Garden Grove and Westminster. And she has an enormous advantage in money, spending more than $300,000 compared to Neugebauer’s $25,000.

Neugebauer, who has served on the Westminster City Council for 18 years, is counting on anti-incumbent votes and leftover bad feelings from Wieder’s 1988 bid for Congress when she admitted to lying about receiving a college degree.

Neugebauer has mounted a grass-roots, volunteer-based campaign, much like the low-budget productions that have won her election to the City Council.

“Anything can happen, and there is an air of anti-incumbency,” said political consultant Englander. “But I think Harriett will pull it off.”

The race for district attorney pits two longtime interoffice rivals.

Enright, the office’s chief deputy, is trying to unseat Capizzi, the former chief assistant who was appointed district attorney by the Board of Supervisors earlier this year when Cecil Hicks, the former officeholder, became a judge.

Capizzi has emphasized his accomplishments and long list of endorsements. Enright, meanwhile, has tried to paint a sharp contrast between himself as a courtroom prosecutor and Capizzi as just an administrator.

Enright, 63, sees Capizzi as a young upstart who has done more over the years to polish his image with politicians than effectively prosecute crimes. Capizzi, 50, considers Enright a wasted talent, a man who lacks the administrative abilities to effectively lead the district attorney’s office during the coming decade.

Those sorts of office squabbles have surfaced repeatedly during the campaign, generating the most intrigue in a race that has otherwise failed to capture the attention of the public. A recent poll for The Times Orange County Edition showed that nearly half of the voters in the county were still undecided in this race. Among the others, the race was nearly even, with Enright leading Capizzi 29% to 23%.

Capizzi has an advantage in being the incumbent, and he has much more money, $263,000 compared to Enright’s $80,000.

Finally, in one more race where an incumbent is running hard, County School Supt. Peterson is facing his first serious challenge since he was elected in 1966.

Peterson’s opponent is Whittier College professor Dean, 63, who combined with another candidate in the June primary to capture 60% of the vote. That result, Dean has said, is a mandate from the electorate for “new leadership” in the nonpartisan, $98,000-a-year post.

But as Tuesday’s election approaches, Dean has not managed to parlay that mandate into a clear shot at victory. Results of the Times Orange County Poll last week showed that 50% of the voters have yet to decide whether to return Peterson to office for an unprecedented seventh term or make Dean the first new face to occupy the county superintendent’s office since 1966.

With campaign funds dwindling in both camps--the two candidates had only about $7,000 in their respective war chests at last count--Peterson and Dean will have to rely on volunteer precinct walking and word-of-mouth to garner support.

Dean has the advantage of being endorsed by the 15,000-member California Teachers Assn.

Among the issues, Dean says he will seek to rein in the county Department of Education’s “skyrocketing” $74.5-million budget and will attempt to reallocate funds. Dean has also been sharply critical of what he calls Peterson’s “games and contests” mentality.

Peterson has argued that Dean’s campaign promises are naive. Budget allocation, Peterson has said, are strictly controlled by state law and cannot be easily changed by the superintendent.

Times staff writers Bob Schwertz, Tony Marcano and Eric Bailey contributed to this story.

Tuesday’s Election Ballot

Voters will face a lengthy ballot featuring numerous issues and candidates at the state, county, municipal and special district levels when they go to the polls in Tuesday’s General Election.

In the statewide contests, voters will decide races for governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, controller, treasurer, attorney general and insurance commissioner. In addition, there are 28 ballot initiatives, including the sweeping and controversial Proposition 128, also known as “Big Green,” and Propositions 131 and 140, which seek to set term limits on state legislators.

Locally, Orange County voters will decide on Measure M, a proposed half-cent sales-tax increase to fund transportation projects.

They will also decide whether to return to office a county supervisor, the district attorney and the county superintendent of schools.

Also on local ballots are 24 city council elections, 14 school board elections, 16 special district elections and 14 legislative and congressional elections.

Polls will open at 7 a.m. and close at 8 p.m.

For voter information, call the registrar of voters office at (714) 567-7600.