Democrats Hold Redistricting Advantage : Congress: Legislative areas will be redrawn. Wilson’s victory gives GOP a veto over boundaries for the 52 seats California is expected to receive.

With gains in several key state races on Tuesday, Democrats now enter next year’s reapportionment of Congress positioned to reinforce their already lopsided majority in the House of Representatives for another decade.

But Republicans achieved their top priority Tuesday: winning the governorship of California, thereby acquiring a veto over the redistricting of the 52 seats the state is expected to receive in the next Congress.

This year’s voting culminated an unprecedented decade of partisan trench warfare for control of the nation’s statehouses, and with them the redrawing of legislative districts that follows each census. Convinced that unfair redistricting--known as gerrymandering--has inflated Democratic strength in the House, the GOP poured millions of dollars into a concerted effort through the 1980s to end the Democrats’ historic control of the state legislatures and governorships that actually draw the lines.

But as the next reapportionment approaches, Republicans are actually in a weaker position than 10 years ago, holding fewer governorships and state legislative chambers than on the day after Ronald Reagan was first elected. And they begin the 1990s at a low ebb in Congress itself, holding as few as 167 seats after Tuesday’s results, the smallest number since 1985.

“We have withstood the Republican onslaught,” said Rep. Vic Fazio (D-Sacramento), the chairman of IMPAC 2000, a Democratic group active on redistricting issues. “We look better than a lot of people anticipated.”

During Tuesday’s voting, the two parties fought to a virtual draw in governorships, allowing both sides to claim victory. With the race in Nebraska still potentially subject to a recount, Republicans lost two seats, Democrats ran even and independent candidates--former Sen. Lowell P. Weicker Jr. in Connecticut and former Gov. Walter J. Hickel in Alaska--gained two.

One race remains undecided: Since minor candidates prevented either Republican Fife Symington or Democrat Terry Goddard from winning a clear majority of the vote, under Arizona law they will face each other in a runoff for the seat now held by Democrat Rose Mofford. No date for the runoff has yet been set.

Democrats took an early lead Tuesday by capturing governorships currently held by Republicans in Florida and Texas, as well as the smaller trophies of New Mexico, Rhode Island, Oklahoma and Kansas. In Nebraska, Democratic businessman Bill Nelson apparently eked out a narrow victory over Republican Gov. Kay A. Orr, the only woman governor who sought reelection this year. A count of absentee ballots is under way; if that leaves the margin within 1%, a recount of the entire tally will be launched.

In Minnesota, late entry Arne Carlson--who was pressed into service when GOP nominee Jon Grunseth was forced to withdraw amid charges of sexual misconduct--stunned Democratic Gov. Rudy Perpich. In Michigan, Republican State Sen. John Engler ousted Democratic Gov. James J. Blanchard. In Illinois, Republican Secretary of State Jim Edgar held off Democratic Atty. Gen. Neil F. Hartigan.

For Republican operatives, these victories somewhat soothed the sting of losing Florida and Texas. “Overall, we are breathing a huge sigh of relief,” said Michele M. Davis, executive director of the Republican Governors’ Assn.

But even with these wins, the Republicans end the decade with just 19 governorships, four fewer than they had when it started. (The total could rise to 20 if Symington takes Arizona.) And the GOP’s position in state legislatures has dramatically eroded over the same period.

After Reagan’s landslide in 1980, Republicans controlled 35 state legislative chambers, and Democrats 63. (Nebraska has a nonpartisan unicameral Statehouse). But, with a handful of states still to be decided in slow counting, it appears that after Tuesday’s balloting Democrats may control as many as 73 statehouses, and Republicans just 23. That would represent a one-third drop in Republican Statehouse strength over the decade--a bitter disappointment to GOP partisans.

“One of our problems is we’ve always focused at the top of the pyramid,” Davis said. “We’ve just got to get down to basics and be a little more local in our politics.”

For Republicans, the night’s best news came with Sen. Pete Wilson’s victory in California. After the 1980 reapportionment, Democrats controlled both chambers of the state Legislature and the governorship in California and, led by the late Rep. Phillip Burton, engineered an audacious redistricting plan that expanded the party’s congressional margin from 22-21 to 28-17.

Ever since, Republicans have fired off lawsuits and ballot initiatives attempting to undo the plan, but all their efforts failed, including two initiatives to reform the redistricting process on the June ballot. But with Wilson’s victory giving the GOP a veto over the next redistricting plan, Republicans could pick up from four to nine new California seats in 1992, estimates Alan Heslop, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College who has advised the GOP on redistricting.

Those gains may be offset, though, by the gubernatorial results in Texas and Florida, which will gain seven new seats between them, as many as California. With the victories of Ann Richards in Texas and Lawton Chiles in Florida, Democrats now have complete control of the map-making in the two states, holding both houses of the state Legislature and the governorships.

Democrats control all branches of state government in two other states expected to gain seats: Georgia and Virginia. In North Carolina and Arizona control will be divided between the parties; results are not final in the Washington state legislative races.

Democrats also have a strong hand in the 13 states currently expected to lose seats--each of which will also shift lines in a manner that will determine the fate of some incumbents. In four of those states Democrats will have complete control of the process; Republicans will have a free hand in none of them. The rest are split between the parties.

This partisan alignment suggests that, as in 1980, the GOP may not gain as much as it hoped from the shift in population and congressional representation away from the Democratic strongholds in the Northeast to the burgeoning Republican communities of the South and West.

GOP optimists note that the enormous Republican growth in Florida and Texas will make it extremely difficult for Democrats to draw seats they can control. Pessimists say a dedicated Democrat with a good computer could gerrymander the West Wing of George Bush’s White House.

“It is very clear that the politics of the electoral process have deprived the Republicans of the advantages from the changing demographics of the process that they expected,” Heslop said.

CONTROLLING REDISTRICTING

A state-by-state rundown on partisan control of governors’ offices and statehouses, where congressional and legislative boundaries will be redrawn, based on the 1990 census.

The fourth column shows which party should be able to control the redistricting process in that state based on Tuesday’s vote. Where partisan control is not yet decided, Und is used. If control is divided, Split is used. Where partisan control does not affect redistricting, the notation is NA for not applicable.

The fifth column shows the net change in the number of congressional seats in that state, based on preliminary 1990 census data.

State State Seat State Gov. Senate House Control Changes Alabama R D D Split +1 Alaska I NA NA Und 0 Arizona R D R Split +1 Arkansas D D D D 0 California R D D Split +6/+7 Colorado D R R Split 0 Connecticut NA NA NA NA 0 Delaware R D R Split 0 Florida D D D D +4 Georgia D D D D +1 Hawaii NA NA NA NA 0 Idaho D R R Split 0 Illinois R NA NA GOP -2 Indiana D R D Split 0 Iowa R D D Split -1 Kansas D R D Split -1 Kentucky D D D D -1 Louisiana D D D D -1 Maine R Und Und Und 0 Maryland D D D D 0 Massachusetts R D D Split -1 Michigan R R D Split -2 Minnesota R D D Split 0 Mississippi D D D D 0 Missouri R D D Split 0 Montana NA NA NA NA -1 Nebraska D I NA Split 0 Nevada D D D D 0 New Hampshire R R R R 0 New Jersey D D D D -1 New Mexico D D D D 0 New York D R D Split -3 North Carolina NA D D D +1 North Dakota D D R Split 0 Ohio R R D Split -2 Oklahoma D D D D 0 Oregon D D R Split 0 Pennsylvania D R D Split -2 Rhode Island D D D D 0 South Carolina R D D Split 0 South Dakota R D R Split 0 Tennessee D D D D 0 Texas D D D D +3 Utah R R R R 0 Vermont R NA NA R 0 Virginia D D D D +1 Washington NA NA NA NA +1 West Virginia D D D D -1 Wisconsin R D D Split 0 Wyoming D R R Split 0