Mexico Democracy Faces Test Today : Election: Credibility of the electoral system is at stake in voting for mayors and state legislators.

Residents of Mexico’s wealthiest and most populous state--called Mexico--are voting for mayors and a state legislature today in a highly competitive election that is seen as the latest test of the government’s commitment to fair suffrage.

Except for the governor’s race in Baja California last year, which was won by the opposition National Action Party, virtually all state elections during the two years of President Carlos Salinas de Gortari’s tenure have been marred by charges of fraud.

“What is at stake is not just a few municipal governorships or the degree of plurality of a local legislature,” said an editorial in the Mexico City newspaper La Jornada, “but the credibility of an electoral system that we want to be democratic but which has not always been so.”

The Mexico election is highly visible because it is being held in the nation’s most industrialized state, which surrounds Mexico City. It is also one of five states that leftist leader Cuauhtemoc Cardenas won in the 1988 presidential election.

All three major parties are strong in some areas of the state, so the election is being watched by Mexicans and potential foreign investors as a preview to next year’s nationwide vote for the federal Chamber of Deputies and Senate.

Miguel Basanez, a former state attorney general and a pollster who has done a survey of voters for foreign business leaders, said: “This is a key election. If the results are respected and opposition victories are recognized, then we know the 1991 elections will be tough. It is a signal that there are possibilities (to win). If the vote is not respected, then I see very strong conflicts in the next weeks.”

Disputed elections in Michoacan and Guerrero last year led to violence, including dozens of deaths.

Cardenas’ Democratic Revolutionary Party occupied town halls and blocked highways for months to protest fraud allegedly committed by the Institutional Revolutionary Party, which has ruled for more than 60 years. The government finally called out the army and federal police to end the demonstrations.

Mexico state is bordered by Michoacan and Guerrero, states that Cardenas won in 1988. The official party, known as PRI, is clearly worried about similar protests in Mexico, which could prove a logistic nightmare for the capital and politically damaging for the government. Obviously, electoral disturbances in a state with 30% of the country’s industrial base could discourage investment.

“Democracy must win twice in the Mexican election,” Gov. Ignacio Pichardo Pagaza said to foreign reporters last week.

“The vote and election results must be respected, and public opinion must believe that they were. . . . The results must be credible. If citizens and parties realize that the results were respected, and if there is sufficient maturity for parties to recognize where they won and lost, then there is no reason to block highways and occupy municipal palaces,” he said.

Cardenas already has charged that the government padded the voter registration list in order to steal the election. He told a news conference last week that thousands of names are duplicated on the rolls so that government supporters can vote more than once.

Gov. Pichardo responded that the government and opposition parties have been aware for some time that there is a 10% to 15% rate of error in the dated registration lists. But, he said, they all agreed not to remake the rolls before this vote. He said the opposition has adopted a strategy of crying fraud to discredit the government.

The government and PRI have been running hard in Mexico state, which includes some of the wealthiest suburbs of Mexico City as well as the largest communities of squatters and impoverished immigrants in the capital. It also includes rural communities, which boast the country’s highest corn production.

President Salinas has made at least five trips to the state this year alone, and his pet program, called Solidarity, has invested $92.5 million in public works programs. PRI candidates for the 121 mayoralties and 34 legislature seats have been campaigning neighborhood to neighborhood to present “the new PRI . . . the democratic PRI.”

In an effort to show that the ruling party is fighting corruption in its own ranks, officials arrested a former PRI mayor of the municipality of Naucalpan, Agustin Lenero Bores, and accused him of embezzling 19 billion pesos, or more than $7 million. But observers say it is not clear whether the arrest hurt the PRI, by confirming suspicions of corruption, or helped to show a new anti-corruption bent.

Observers say the PRI most likely will win most of the legislature and municipalities. The serious contests are in about 25 municipalities, including the wealthiest and most populated.

Naucalpan, a town of wealthy suburbs, is among the most competitive races. The conservative National Action Party is strong there, along with the PRI. Another tight race is in the massive poor community of Nezahualcoyotl, where Cardenas’ Democratic Revolutionary Party is strong.

Pollster Basanez said the PRI’s campaign has helped its image but that the ruling party could still take a beating in up to 15 of the 25 key municipalities.

He listed the issues as “the government’s economic policy, inflation and unemployment, the water shortage and police corruption.”

Asked why the government might want to rig the election, he answered: “It is a problem of money. Naucalpan has a big budget. It’s about not giving large resources to the opposition. Municipalities have money to spend, positions to give party militants. Victories strengthen parties.”