Voters’ Upsets Start Scramble in S.D. Politics : Election: Historically, incumbents have been ‘lifers.’ But the results may foretell even more dramatic changes in 1992 races.

By removing several incumbents thought to have lifetime locks on their jobs and raising questions about the security of others, Tuesday’s election has dramatically altered San Diego’s political horizon, opening up options for 1992 and beyond that would have been unthinkable a week ago.

Combined with San Diego’s expected gain of a handful of new congressional and state legislative seats under the 1990 reapportionment, Tuesday’s upsets have created what one longtime campaign consultant described as “the most exciting period of political chaos” here in years.

“We’re moving into an incredibly dynamic time in politics in San Diego and California,” consultant Jack Orr said. “This will be the Big Daddy of them all. It’s going to be political musical chairs and shuffling around like you’ve never seen.”

Because successful politicians, like good chess players, are always thinking several moves ahead, the maneuvering and analysis of various what-if scenarios has already begun as local politicians reevaluate their suddenly broadened prospects for upward mobility.

With the apparent defeat of Democratic Rep. Jim Bates and Republican Assembly members Sunny Mojonnier and Jeff Marston, other politicians whose ambitions had been severely constrained by the presence of a seemingly secure incumbent now have more opportunities to ponder.

Both Bates and Marston still hold out slim hope that absentee ballots to be counted this week will erase their 982-vote and 1,858-vote deficits, respectively, while Mojonnier’s chances of overcoming her 5,821-vote shortfall are dimmer. Regardless, activists of both major parties have already begun talking about all three incumbents in the past tense and have started looking to new faces--or redistricting--to reclaim what was lost this year.

Several San Diego City Council members have already been mentioned as possible Assembly or congressional candidates in 1992, as have the names of other local political activists, some of whom waged unsuccessful past campaigns for those posts.

San Diego’s growth over the past decade could produce one new congressional seat, an additional state Senate seat, and as many as three new Assembly posts when the state’s political boundaries are redrawn next year to reflect the past decade’s population shifts.

“The next few years are going to be a growth period for my business,” joked political consultant David Lewis. “There are going to be a lot of cast changes.”

Before Tuesday, it had been a decade since any San Diego congressman was defeated, and no local Assembly member had lost in 18 years.

Because most of those incumbents represented districts where voter registration is heavily lopsided in their favor, their longevity effectively closed political doors to ambitious Republicans and Democrats alike. While members of their own party were all but obliged to remain on the sidelines out of party loyalty--a deference that began breaking down this year following several incumbents’ ethical transgressions--the districts’ partisan slants also generally discouraged strong opposition-party challengers.

Local Democrats with congressional ambitions, for example, essentially had to defer those goals because of Bates’ hold on the heavily Democratic 44th District, and the incumbency of Republicans--who, like Bates, were widely perceived as “lifers”--in three other “safe” districts. With three of four seats occupied by fellow Republicans, and Bates seemingly secure by virtue of his district’s 53%-35% registration edge, GOP aspirants had similarly slim hopes.

As a result, no major elected official challenged for any of the seats since the early 1980s, producing a series of easy reelection campaigns for the incumbents--a trend that remained intact until Tuesday. For similar reasons, the same historical pattern was seen in local state legislative races.

Republican Randall (Duke) Cunningham’s apparent narrow upset of Bates, combined with Democrat Dan Kripke’s surprisingly strong showing against Rep. Bill Lowery (R-San Diego) in the 41st Congressional District, has altered that political equation.

“I’m sure the Democrats are already licking their chops thinking of going after Cunningham in ‘92,” consultant Orr said. “And Lowery better realize that he’s been given two years to clean up his act, or he could be the next to go.”

Describing Lowery as “humbled” by his narrow 49%-44% victory over Kripke, whom he trounced by 2-to-1 margins in his past two reelections, Lowery aide Karl Higgins insists that the GOP congressman “heard the message” in Tuesday’s election and recognizes that his unimpressive showing could draw a stronger Democratic challenge in 1992.

“The anti-incumbency mood was much stronger than we anticipated,” said Higgins, Lowery’s administrative assistant. “We won’t be surprised again. Our next campaign has already begun.”

Assuming that Cunningham’s lead holds, the early list of potential 1992 Democratic challengers includes San Diego City Councilmen Bob Filner and Wes Pratt, as well as lawyer Michael Aguirre, who lost to Bates in his first race for the then-newly created seat in 1982.

With Bates’ defeat not yet certain, pending tabulation of the remaining 43,860 absentee ballots countywide, possible Democratic contenders are cautious about expressing their interest in the seat. Even so, Filner--showing that he already has given more than passing thought to the subject--emphasizes that his council district overlaps a major portion of the 44th District, adding that he “intends to be part of the discussions” about the party’s 1992 plans.

“The time to take back a seat is the first time around,” Filner said. “After that, it becomes tougher. That’s why we need a strong candidate next time.”

For his part, Cunningham, a former Navy fighter pilot who sometimes referred to Bates as “just another MiG, and an unethical one” to be shot down in his first political battle, professes to be unperturbed at the prospect of having to defend a seat in a district where his party faces an 18-percentage-point deficit in voter registration.

“It’s going to be tough, but if I do a good job, I think I’ll be OK,” Cunningham said. “The people want somebody who’s not going to raise taxes, who will keep the country strong and will be there to help them. If I do that, you can put that ‘D’ or ‘R’ fixture in front of my name, and it won’t make any difference.”

Democrat Deirdre (Dede) Alpert, who upset four-term incumbent Mojonnier (R-Encinitas) Tuesday, will face a similar numerical obstacle in 1992 in the 75th Assembly District, where the GOP holds a 52%-33% registration edge. That daunting advantage, however, was eroded by Mojonnier’s involvement in a long series of controversies: her fine for double-billing the state and her campaign committee for certain expenses, her use of state-paid sergeants-at-arms as a kind of private chauffeur service, and her decision to take a Hawaiian vacation during the Legislature’s budget debates last summer.

Recognizing the district’s demographic disadvantages for any Democrat, party leaders have taken to describing Alpert, a Solana Beach school board member, as a “Lucy Killea-type Democrat,” a reference to the San Diego state senator whose low-key style and moderate policies have enabled her to run well among Republicans throughout her career.

From the perspective of one Republican who lost to Mojonnier in last June’s GOP primary, that is simply wishful thinking on the part of Democrats.

“Sacramento Republicans may have lost this seat temporarily, but San Diego Republicans are going to win it back in two years,” said former Del Mar Mayor Ronnie Delaney, who intends to run for the seat again in 1992. One of three Republicans who ran against Mojonnier last spring, feeling that her liabilities would leave the party vulnerable in November, Delaney notes that many local GOP activists blame party leaders in Sacramento for Tuesday’s loss because of their reluctance to abandon Mojonnier.

The wild card in regard to all of the long-range political guesswork, however, is the upcoming decennial reapportionment process. A complicated process that pits numerical constraints--namely, the need for districts of nearly equal size--and various legal requirements against incumbents’ desires for safe seats, the local redistricting task is complicated by San Diego’s expected gains in the Legislature and Congress.

With existing districts’ boundaries needing to shrink to accommodate the new seats, the task of redrawing district lines will be especially knotty.

Already, political insiders are analyzing the myriad possibilities: Will Democrats try to get rid of Cunningham by adding even more Democratic votes to the 44th District, or by shifting him to the 45th District of fellow Republican Rep. Duncan Hunter of Coronado? Can the Democratic Legislature find a way to protect Alpert and Gotch, whose 78th District as currently drawn will always be difficult one for any Democrat? Or will Republican Gov.-elect Pete Wilson, a former San Diego mayor, pay special heed to creating local districts as favorable as possible to GOP interests?

While the answers to those questions will take months to unfold, consultant Orr aptly summarized the upcoming period of “guessing, worrying, wondering, threatening and wishing” that will dominate San Diego’s immediate political future.

“The election Tuesday got stirred things up, and now, what happens with the blue pencils in Sacramento will be like tossing in dynamite,” Orr said. “Everybody’s going in all directions. Old quiet San Diego isn’t so quiet anymore. It’s going to be pretty lively.”