In Germany, the Center Holds Sway : Kohl’s triumph was a signature to an era

Germans, as expected, have given the center-right coalition headed by Chancellor Helmut Kohl a smashing victory in their now-unified country’s first free nationwide elections in more than 58 years.

In the process--and this was not expected--they meted out severe electoral punishment to those parties, notably the Social Democrats and the Greens in the West, that had wanted to move far more slowly than Kohl on the unification issue. Also drawing only modest support were the far-right Republicans, who failed to win even a single seat in the Bundestag.

The result is that Europe’s most powerful state will confront an era of major challenges under a coalition firmly anchored in the broad and stable middle of the political spectrum. That augurs well for Germany, and for Europe.

Even before the final ballots were counted in last Sunday’s election, Kohl was talking somberly about the problems ahead. Integrating eastern Germany is going to be a hugely expensive undertaking. There are emerging signs that it could also be a socially disruptive one.

East Germany was something of a star among the enfeebled economies of the Soviet Bloc. But all things are relative; the east’s 16 million people are now regarded by many other Germans as poor relations, taken into the prosperous western home out of a sense of family loyalty in the hope that in time they can be brought up to the host’s standards. That time is likely to prove a difficult one.

Efforts to modernize and rationalize the east’s economy are already producing rising unemployment in the former Communist state, and are certain to require a long period of perhaps considerably higher taxes across the country.

To replace or repair east Germany’s infrastructure, to modernize its industries, to begin cleaning up its polluted environment, to upgrade its schools and training programs and to provide a social safety net during a lengthy period of transition could cost as much $1 trillion, according to the newest estimates. Already some signs of resentment among Germany’s more prosperous citizens are emerging over the added costs they are about to pay.

Germany’s necessary preoccupation with its demanding domestic concerns provides at least one benefit that Kohl and others are likely to welcome. Between providing for its own substantial new financial needs and contributing billions more to help grease the movement of the Soviet army out of German territory, Germany can probably plausibly argue that it has precious little to spare for other international efforts.

That could reduce pressures on it from some of its allies and trading partners to play a more assertive world role. None of this means that Germany won’t become more internationally influential in the years ahead; in eastern Europe, and the Soviet Union particularly, it bodes to become a major player.

Sunday’s election was a signature to an era. A new age for Germany now begins, under an experienced leadership that happily commands the confidence of a democratic electorate.