Next Step : Missing Mrs. Thatcher: The Laborites Regroup : Party leader Neil Kinnock had hoped to capitalize on opposition to her leadership. With her gone, he must now shop for new strategies.

It was former Labor Prime Minister Harold Wilson who coined the oft-quoted phrase: “A week is a long time in politics.”

That adage proved true again for the British Labor Party, which has undergone a sudden reversal of fortune in a week that saw Margaret Thatcher resign under pressure as prime minister and her replacement by John Major.

The party, beaten by Thatcher in the last three general elections, was counting on running against a much-weakened version of its longtime nemesis next time--and not against a more popular Conservative Party leader such as Major.

That popularity was reflected by the latest public opinion polls, which show Labor suddenly running behind the Tories by about 11 percentage points. That compares with an edge of about 15 points that Labor had maintained over the Thatcher-led Conservatives for more than a year.

As a result of the switch at the top, the Conservatives now enjoy roughly the same position in the polls as they did going into the last general election, in 1987, when they thumped Labor 43% to 32%.

Thus, dumping the controversial Thatcher--however great the shock to her supporters--appears to have vastly improved the Tories’ chances against Labor in the next election, which must be held within 18 months.

As Gordon Greig, political editor of the Daily Mail, described the Labor Party task: “They will now have to win the next election on merit, rather than allowing the Tories to lose it.”

“There is no question but that Margaret Thatcher was seen as a strong election card for Labor,” commented another political analyst. “They preferred her wounded but in the saddle. Now they are dealing with a new situation.”

The selection of John Major, youthful and attractive at 47, has undercut another of the advantages that Labor Party leader Neil Kinnock appeared to enjoy in his quest to become Britain’s next prime minister.

At 48, compared with Thatcher’s 65, Kinnock’s relative youth--as well as his energy in leading his party in new directions--had been seen by political observers here as an important electoral strength. That edge has obviously disappeared with Major replacing Thatcher.

Elected leader of the Labor Party in 1983, Kinnock has spent his time at the helm reforming the radical image of the party and breaking the iron grip of the trade unions over party policy and personnel.

Among other changes, he persuaded the party to abandon its stand in favor of unilateral nuclear disarmament, which proved unpopular among British voters at large.

Despite his youth, Kinnock has become the longest-serving opposition leader in British history. Though he has spent 20 years in the House of Commons, he has never held a Cabinet office--he entered Parliament during a Tory sweep in 1970 and remained a backbencher during the Labor governments of 1974-79.

While remaking the party, Kinnock has also tried to modify his personal image from that of a rather windy, Welsh glad-hander, a typical “boyo” in an anorak, to that of a credible national leader, dressed more frequently in sober, double-breasted suits.

In the process, he has made himself the undisputed leader of a Labor Party often rent in the past by bitter intramural fights.

Under Kinnock, Labor has also managed to field a responsible team on the opposition front bench in the Commons--the “shadow Cabinet” that would take over the government if Labor wins a general election.

They include deputy leader Roy Hattersley, 57, long identified with the moderate wing of the party and a television talk-show veteran; Gerald Kaufman, 60, the shadow foreign secretary, and John Smith, 52, the highly regarded shadow chancellor.

Among other leading Labor would-be ministers are Gordon Brown, 39, shadow secretary for trade and industry; Tony Blair, 37, education, and Margaret Beckett, 47, treasury.

They are putting together a new manifesto, which will set out Labor policies calling for closer ties to the European Community and ensuring better health and education services--the very issues Labor had considered would be their trump cards in a race against Thatcher.

Labor is also leery of advocating handing back inordinate power to trade unions or a return to widespread public ownership if it were to win the next election.

The new, moderate leaders of the party recognize that Thatcher’s bringing the trade unions in line was widely popular and that denationalization of some major industries has also met with general approval.

“Our only commitment to public ownership is in a number of major utilities like water, electricity and communications,” said a party official.

And while Labor’s policy statement calls for full recognition of trade-union rights, it does not advocate a stronger role for the unions than they play in most Western democracies.

Labor is already attacking Major, the former chancellor of the exchequer, as a warmed-over Thatcherite, hoping to capitalize on the anti-Thatcher sentiment in the country. “The Tories refused to elect Margaret Thatcher as their leader,” sniped Kaufman, the shadow foreign secretary. “They waited a week, then elected her after all--by proxy.”

However, Major may indeed become his “own man,” as he has promised, and Labor Party strategists may need to find new tactics to employ against the Tories--depending on the shape of his post-Thatcher policies.

Indeed, Labor is now facing in John Major a self-styled “man of the people”--a high school dropout who began his political career in a tough, inner-city neighborhood of London.

Major is seeking to defuse the issues Labor had planned on exploiting: He has spoken out on behalf of better educational and health services, and he is looking for an alternative to the unpopular community service charge--a regressive replacement for property taxes known derisively here as the “poll tax.”

The new prime minister is also an accomplished debater in the House of Commons and, after his first performance, is regarded as highly unlikely to allow Kinnock to run rings around him. Kinnock, in fact, has seemed lackluster in recent Commons debates, particularly in the last days of his clashes with Thatcher.

Labor lawmakers insist that their recent showing in the opinion polls represents a temporary “blip,” as Bryan Gould, the shadow environment minister, put it in an interview.

“John Major is weakened because he is Margaret Thatcher’s heir,” he maintained. “And it was really Labor’s establishing ourselves as a credible alternative that put the pressure on her, forcing her to go.

“We have a very competent bunch of people, and I think the Conservatives will run into trouble on the hard political realities: the poll tax bills arriving in April, the deep problems with interest rates and the economy. I think you may see a general election in the spring.”

Brian Gosschalk, director of political research for the MORI polling organization, suggested that the latest opinion samplings, coming hard on the heels of Thatcher’s resignation after 11 1/2 years in power, are probably misleading for both sides.

“I think it shows the fragile nature of Labor’s previous support,” Gosschalk said of the sudden fall in the party’s poll standing. On the other hand, he added, “the Conservatives are going through a honeymoon period. I think that you will see their present lead narrowing considerably by spring.”

Kinnock Comments

ON THE ELECTION OF JOHN MAJOR AS PRIME MINISTER:

“John Major is a Thatcherette. It means the policies that brought poll tax, recession, heavy mortgages and rising unemployment will go on. Let’s have a general election without delay.”

ON HIS PARTY’S DEFENSE POLICY:

“While I am party leader and when I am Prime Minister, the Labor government will always ensure that the defense policy we discharge will be the policy that best ensures the security and defense of Britain.”

ON HIS RELATIONSHIP WITH GOD:

“(It) is virtually non-existent, at least so far as I am concerned. What I embrace and seek to uphold are social and moral commitments of what we understand by Christianity, shared in common with a lot of other religions. But I cannot make the leap of faith that is required to be a true and practicing Christian . . . I try to uphold the general tenets (of Christianity) because I believe them to be socially progressive and very benevolent.”