Purchasers See Recession in First Half of ’91

The nation’s purchasing managers overwhelmingly believe that the economy will be in recession for the first half of next year, according to a report released Tuesday.

The National Assn. of Purchasing Management, which represents a cross-section of industry, said 80% of members surveyed for a semiannual report thought that there would be a recession in the first half of next year.

The report was the latest in a string of negative signs pointing to a recession, which many believe has already begun.

The purchasing managers’ monthly index, which closely tracks gross national product, has fallen for five straight months, indicating weakness in the manufacturing sector and a probable contraction in fourth-quarter GNP.

“Purchasers expect a recovery to begin in the latter half of the year fueled by the continued relatively strong growth in exports and a declining trend in inflation,” said Robert Bretz, chairman of the group’s Business Survey Committee.

For all of 1991, the group predicted economic growth of only 2.2% before inflation, he said.

Purchasers forecast “only mild inflation” in goods and services, regardless of oil price increases.