THE TIMES POLL : Public Backs Bush but Wants to Avoid War

Support for President Bush’s handling of the Persian Gulf crisis has substantially increased over the last month, but most Americans still want to give economic sanctions more time to work before launching military action to drive Iraq from Kuwait, The Times Poll has found.

The poll found that Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein’s decision to release his Western hostages has not diminished support for pressuring him to relinquish his hold on Kuwait. But a plurality of those surveyed still hope to achieve that goal without shedding blood.

Asked how the U.S. should proceed once the hostages come home, 43% of those polled supported continued enforcement of the economic embargo and military build-up in Saudi Arabia. Another 37% called for invading Iraq if it does not withdraw from Kuwait by the U.N. deadline of Jan. 15, 1991. Only 13% called for bringing the troops home from Saudi Arabia, now that all Americans held captive in Iraq have been freed.

Even with these cautionary signs, many analysts believe the growing confidence in Bush’s handling of the crisis may be strengthening his ability to eventually win support for military options if peaceful means fail to free Kuwait.

In the new survey, 61% approved of President Bush’s handling of the crisis while only 33% disapproved. That represented a sizable change over November, when public approval of Bush’s performance in the showdown with Iraq sagged to just 54%, with 40% disapproving.

As memories of October’s federal budget debacle recede, Bush’s overall job rating also has continued to improve although not as sharply. In the latest survey, 64% of those polled approved of his performance as President and just 29% disapproved; in November he received a 61-34 positive rating.

The Times Poll, supervised by Assistant Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus, was taken Saturday through Wednesday, starting two days after Hussein’s announcement on releasing hostages. It surveyed 2,205 men and women 18 or older by phone; it has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Revealingly, women provided almost all the improvement in Bush’s standing on the gulf. Now, 56% of women support his handling of the crisis, contrasted with just 43% in November, when the President announced his plans to double American troop strength in the region and brusquely warned of possible military action against Hussein.

In November, women, in particular, “were very anxious” that Bush was moving precipitously toward war with Iraq, said Times political analyst William Schneider.

But Bush appeared to have salved those concerns with his recent diplomatic maneuvers, particularly the proposal to send Secretary of State James A. Baker to Iraq to meet with Hussein, Schneider and other analysts said.

“People want to be reassured that we are proceeding with appropriate caution,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “And the President has been able to give those signals.”

Paradoxically, these gestures toward peace may be softening the public resistance to war.

Several recent national polls have shown most Americans willing to ultimately use American forces to expel Iraqi troops from Kuwait.

“The fact that Bush and Saddam have been willing to talk peace may have strengthened the resolve for war,” said Schneider. “People may be ready to go to war after all the possibilities for peace have been exhausted.”

The Times Poll showed that Americans believe the possibility of war has slightly increased in recent weeks, with younger voters and women showing the greatest pessimism about avoiding armed conflict. But the survey clearly showed no urgency for war. Nearly 60% of those polled agreed that “the U.S. should continue to enforce economic sanctions, no matter how long it takes, and not resort to war.”

And the poll found little support for hostilities if Hussein withdraws partly from Kuwait. Asked how the United States should respond, if Iraq withdraws from “most of Kuwait” while holding onto “an oil field and some other land,” only 29% supported attacking Iraq, while 46% supported continued application of the economic sanctions.

If Iraq withdraws completely from Kuwait, the poll found, just 11% would back a war to destroy Hussein’s military capacity. Even among men, who have been far more supportive of military action than women, only 15% would support an invasion under those circumstances.

“From the beginning, the public has thought that getting Hussein out of Kuwait is a successful outcome,” said Karlyn Keene, a public opinion analyst at the American Enterprise Institute. “I think they would like to see him destroyed, but that is not necessary.”

Although the public remains cautious about starting a war, they appear willing to accept a long-term American role in the region after the current crisis is resolved.

Two-thirds of those surveyed said they support an American military presence in the gulf “to maintain stability in the region.” Strikingly, more than three-fifths of both women and liberals endorsed such a long-term military commitment to the Middle East.

Taken together, these results can be read as a public call for continued patience and resolve in the gulf. But some analysts caution that the public commitment to an extended stalemate in the desert could be built on sand.

“The chances the American people will sustain a policy of patience over the long haul are remote,” said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman. On the other hand, pollsters from both parties agree that the public is unlikely to rise up at any single point and demand that the Administration wait no longer to attack Iraq.

As in earlier surveys, the latest poll found that women, blacks, Latinos and the least affluent were the most skeptical of war.

Overall, by a decisive 7-2 margin, the public rejected linking negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians to talks on the gulf crisis, as Hussein has suggested.

PRESIDENT NOT BLOCKED: A U.S. judge refused to bar Bush from starting a war. A22

AFTER THE HOSTAGES, WHAT? Once the hostages have been released, do you think we should: Remove military troops: 13% Leave military troops and enforce the embargo, but don’t invade: 43% Invade Iraq if they don’t get out of Kuwait by Jan. 15: 37% Don’t know: 7% If Hussein releases the hostages and pulls his troops out of all Kuwait, do you think we should: Remove military troops: 41% Leave military troops and enforce the embargo, but don’t invade: 41% Invade Iraq to destroy its military threat in the region: 11% Don’t know: 7% If Hussein releases the hostages and pulls his troops out of most of Kuwait, but holds on to an oilfield and some other land in Kuwait, do you think we should: Remove military troops: 17% Leave military troops and enforce the embargo, but don’t invade: 46% Invade Iraq if they don’t get out of all of Kuwait: 29% Don’t know: 8% If Hussein pulls his troops out of all of Kuwait, should the U.S. keep a military presence in the Gulf to maintain stability in the region, or not? Keep a military presence: 67% Do not keep a military presence: 26% Depends on circumstances (Volunteered): 4% Don’t know: 3% Source: Los Angeles Times Poll