GULF WATCH: Day 137 : A daily briefing paper on developments in the crisis : Diplomatic Front:

Secretary of State James A. Baker III expressed optimism that the United States and Iraq will settle their quarrel over dates in time for him to visit Baghdad for a last-chance attempt to avert war. At the same time, however, Baker said he is convinced that the American public and the world community will blame Iraq instead of the United States if proposed high-level contacts collapse in the dispute over a difference of only nine days. Iraq said it still wants “dialogue,” but its ruling Baath Party vowed to uphold the decision to make Kuwait the nation’s 19th province.

Military Front:

Gen. H. Norman Schwarzkopf, commander of U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf, predicted that a war in the region could last more than six months and said Iraq would put up a “tough fight.”

In a briefing aboard the U.S. aircraft carrier John F. Kennedy, Rear Adm. Riley D. Mixson, commander of the Navy task force in the Red Sea, said the prospects for peace appear no better than 50-50. Although Saddam Hussein appears to be preparing for war, Mixson said he has “never known of an adversary to be in such a disadvantageous position” as the Iraqi president.

Two German scientists who visited Iraq in recent years said that Hussein’s government has acquired enough Western technology to produce a nuclear weapon by 1991 or 1992, according to a report in London’s Sunday Times. If accurate, the account indicates that Baghdad is closer to building a bomb than many Western officials had believed.

Turkey’s Armed Forces:

Troops near Iraqi border: 100,000

Paramilitary forces: 35,000

Troops for Saudi Arabia: 5,000

Tanks in region: 50

Combat aircraft: 50