An Encouraging Report on Collective Intelligence

Many of the difficult issues affecting the United States--environmental protection measures, rising health-care costs and energy-conservation regulations--to name a few--will be the subject of public debate and government referendums in the 1990s.

Business and government leaders have been concerned that, increasingly, the public may lack the education to grapple with and make decisions about such issues.

As problems grow more complex, some worry that the inability of citizens to understand them and make informed decisions could hurt the nation. Can the public be trusted to deal intelligently with these complex scientific and technological issues?

The answer is yes, according to a study by the Public Agenda Foundation, a research and education organization in New York. The study makes a convincing case that fears of an uninformed electorate voting on the basis of exaggerated worries or expectations of technological panaceas are overstated.

For example, Public Agenda used brief education-and-discussion sessions to examine the public’s ability to deal with the complexities of solid waste disposal. First, participants completed a questionnaire that gauged their awareness and understanding of the problem and their preferences about how to deal with it. Next, participants were shown a video about solid waste disposal, followed by a discussion of the subject. Finally, participants filled out the questionnaire again.

Public Agenda also surveyed more than 400 scientists from various disciplines and institutions for their views for a comparison.

The result: The public’s views, after only a small amount of education and discussion, were similar to the scientists’ views.

“We were astounded at the degree to which public opinion moved closer to that of trained scientists after only about an hour’s worth of education,” says John Doble, research director. Both groups favored a similar approach in dealing with solid waste, including legislation that would require recycling, reducing the amount of packaging used by manufacturers and limiting use of incineration and landfills.

Other issues addressed by the survey included more spending on mass transit and establishment of a mileage standard of 50 miles per gallon for new cars by the year 2000. Both measures were supported by the public and the scientists, even though they might increase taxes and raise car prices.

The public also demonstrated support for measures to reduce global warming caused by the greenhouse effect, even though such measures would be costly. After the education and discussion session, “despite being told about the extent of scientific uncertainty about the seriousness of the problem, 82% of the citizens wanted the U.S. to take the lead to solve the problem without waiting for other countries to act,” Doble points out. “Seven out of 10 favored taking such action even if Americans would have to sacrifice more than people in other countries.”

According to Public Agenda, the study’s results indicate that:

* When given specific and brief information, the public can intelligently consider complex issues.

* Although extensive scientific knowledge isn’t necessary for the public to intelligently consider these issues, information on the costs, benefits and risks of the choices to be made is essential.

* The public doesn’t expect science and technology to provide instant panaceas or risk-free solutions to complex problems.

* Scientific uncertainty is not paralyzing the public’s ability to make decisions, nor is it expected to lead to political gridlock.

The study should be encouraging for those who worry that citizens--finding such issues too complex--will either fail to vote or will not support necessary but costly legislation to address growing problems. “We hope these findings give public officials confidence to move ahead with various proposals,” Doble adds, “knowing that the public, when armed with basic information, is likely to support them.”