Hollywood Still Bullish on 1991 Movie Business : Theaters: Any box-office slowdown should be brief, even in recession, theater owners and MPAA declare.

Despite a sharp drop in 1990 movie admissions, Hollywood remains bullish on the new year and says any box-office slowdown should be brief, even in a recession.

A variety of theater owners and the Motion Picture Assn. of America estimated that last year’s movie attendance slipped from 1.1 billion in 1989 to about 1 billion in 1990, a fall of more than 11%.

Owing to higher ticket prices, overall 1990 box-office receipts were close to 1989’s record of $5.03 billion, the MPAA and the trade newspaper Daily Variety estimated.

Larry Gerbrandt, an analyst at the entertainment research firm Paul Kagan Associates, said that 1990 actually exceeded 1989 revenues by 4%. “We think it will set a new record,” Gerbrandt said.

Still, some are mildly disappointed.

“There were not as many pictures out there that people wanted to see,” said William Kartozian, president of National Assn. of Theater Owners, whose members control 13,000 movie screens. “There was no ‘Batman,’ and some of the larger pictures didn’t perform as well as might have been expected.”

“Any drop has to concern you, but this is not overwhelmingly bothersome,” said Barry London, president of Paramount Pictures’ Motion Picture Group. “1989 was an aberration in the positive and 1990 was an aberration in the negative. But 1990 will still have the second-highest attendance in history.”

“The doomsayers will tell you (the admissions drop) is an indication of things to come,” said Tom Sherak, head of marketing and distribution for 20th Century Fox. “The optimists will say that it’s just a statistical slip this year. I’m an optimist--this is a healthy business.”

Three modestly budgeted sleepers--”Ghost,” “Pretty Woman” and “Home Alone”--were tremendously popular, making a combined $536.6 million. But several of the season’s most expensive dramas performed poorly.

The $55-million Tom Cruise racing-car story “Days of Thunder” grossed $82.7 million, a return so wanting that it contributed to its producers’ being released from a long-term contract with Paramount.

The year’s other disappointments were heavily promoted sequels. Among them were “The Two Jakes” (a follow-up to “Chinatown”), “Robocop II,” “Rocky V,” “Another 48 HRS.” and “Gremlins 2: The New Batch.”

Paramount is following suit. “Sequels right now do not seem to be working as well as they have in the past,” the studio’s London said. After suffering through “The Two Jakes” and “Another 48 HRS.,” Paramount has only one sequel set for 1991: the comedy “Naked Gun 2 1/2.”

Motion-picture attendance tends to be very consistent, even in lean times. Furthermore, new technologies such as pay-cable television and videocassette recorders have failed to hurt movie theater profits, as once feared.

If anything, some analysts believe, VCRs have reintroduced movie magic to older audiences who once might have quit venturing into theaters.