NEWS ANALYSIS : U.S. Wary of Latest Flurry of Overtures

The Bush Administration hopes that next Wednesday’s meeting between Secretary of State James A. Baker III and Iraqi Foreign Minister Tarik Aziz will dominate the diplomatic spotlight during the 10-day countdown to the Jan. 15 deadline for Iraq to withdraw from Kuwait.

But it will not be easy for President Bush to keep control of the situation. The looming prospect of war has triggered a rush of activity by others to find a peaceful and political solution to the crisis--and from the U.S. standpoint at least, almost all of them are fraught with danger.

Bush plans to meet today at Camp David with U.N. Secretary General Javier Perez de Cuellar, who said Friday that he is ready to go to Baghdad to consult with Iraqi officials.

French President Francois Mitterrand, Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jacques Poos, Algerian President Chadli Bendjedid and others also have weighed in with last-minute peace bids. European Community foreign ministers authorized Poos, the current president of the community, to meet Aziz next Thursday, the day after the Iraqi foreign minister’s meeting with Baker.

Washington publicly welcomes such efforts. But U.S. officials are working behind the scenes to make sure no one offers Iraqi President Saddam Hussein any sort of deal that could be interpreted as a reward for aggression.

In addition to signaling that he is willing to go to Baghdad, Perez de Cuellar shocked U.S. officials with a suggestion that the U.N. Security Council might have to meet again to decide what to do if Iraq fails to comply with the Jan. 15 deadline. The U.S. government believes that the resolution adopted by the Security Council in November, authorizing the use of force, is “self-executing” and that no additional action is required--or desirable.

On Friday, Mitterrand added to Washington’s discomfort by endorsing Perez de Cuellar’s suggestion of new Security Council action.

A White House official denied that the President had invited Perez de Cuellar to Camp David to try to restrict his actions. However, White House Press Secretary Marlin Fitzwater made it clear that the U.S. government is unenthusiastic about a possible trip by the secretary general to Iraq.

“We do not expect any new initiatives or trips or missions to come out of this (Camp David) meeting,” Fitzwater said.

Talking to reporters Friday, Perez de Cuellar said he does not plan to offer Hussein any new deal. “This is not the right moment to present an initiative,” he said. But he made it clear that he hopes to go to Baghdad anyway.

Sources at the United Nations said that Perez de Cuellar had been seeking a chance for weeks to undertake a mediating role in the crisis. The secretary general wants the United Nations to be a central player in resolving the confrontation and is said to disagree with Bush’s view that the United States can act at will after Jan. 15.

Even if Perez de Cuellar and other visitors to Baghdad stick to Washington’s line of no negotiations, no compromise, no reward for aggression and no deal, their presence in the Iraqi capital may upset U.S. diplomacy by giving Hussein an opportunity to find a face-saving way out of the crisis.

For example, one Arab diplomat in Washington suggested that Hussein may seek to defuse the crisis by announcing a unilateral partial withdrawal, probably after a meeting with a European or Arab representative. In such a scenario, Iraq could hold onto the part of Kuwait it covets most--two offshore islands commanding Iraq’s access to the Persian Gulf and an oil field that straddles the Iraq-Kuwait border.

Although such a conclusion would be unacceptable to the Administration because it would permit Hussein to gain from his invasion, it would make it far more difficult for Bush to sustain international, congressional and U.S. public support for the use of military force.

The diplomat said it would be humiliating for Hussein to make a concession to the United States. But the diplomat said the Iraqi leader could depict a similar concession to a European or Arab leader as something of a victory--and as proof that he had dealt with the United States on an equal footing.

If Hussein is able to obtain any sort of benefit--no matter how ephemeral--for the Palestinians, the diplomat added, it would make the Iraqi dictator “a leader of the Arabs.”

From Washington’s standpoint, any resolution that left Hussein’s army intact and his power and prestige enhanced would be a serious defeat, even if Iraq gave up most of Kuwait. From the perspective of America’s Arab allies, such a result would be close to disastrous because it would leave them facing a dangerous and probably vindictive Iraqi ruler.

But it may become increasingly difficult for Bush to maintain his rejection of partial solutions. The downside of such a diplomatic outcome may be less obvious to European leaders than it is to the Administration and its Arab supporters.

The President has earned high marks so far for his skill in keeping the international coalition together. But the challenge of the next 10 days may be the greatest he has faced since Iraqi troops overran Kuwait on Aug. 2.