NEWS ANALYSIS : A Nervous Jordan Is Trying to Look Two Ways at Once : Mideast: Its geographic position between two powerful and hostile rivals, Israel and Iraq, makes the desert kingdom a potential battlefield.

Usually at this time of year, the only tents visible on the ridges above the Jordan River belong to shepherds who follow their flocks from pasture to pasture made green by the first rains of winter.

This year, however, there are different tents--camouflaged--dotting the passes leading up from the valley. They shelter not shepherds but soldiers and tanks.

Nervous Jordan is preparing to defend itself in case an outbreak of hostilities in the Persian Gulf spills over into this desert kingdom. Its position between powerful and hostile rivals, Israel and Iraq, makes Jordan a potential battlefield, top officials here believe, and they see Israel as their likely antagonist.

If any clash is limited to an exchange of opposing missiles, perhaps Jordan need do nothing but pray that none fall short of their targets. But an array of other circumstances could force Jordan to become a combatant, something that officials here, with vivid memories of Jordan’ disastrous last war, are not eager for.

“We could literally become a killing ground,” said an adviser to Jordan’s leader, King Hussein. “I mean, there is just no scenario that is good for us.”

Jordan’s fear is that Iraq and Israel may move on Jordan to resolve problems of their own, and keeping either off Jordanian territory presents a dilemma. Iraq is a nominal ally and the darling of Jordan’s majority Palestinian population. King Hussein would risk his own popularity by opposing Iraq or failing to help Baghdad in case of attack from Israel.

Israel, on the other hand, is a military powerhouse. Jordan’s aging array of warplanes and limited antiaircraft resources (its surface-to-air missiles, on U.S. insistence, are stationary and pointed at Syria) could do little to deter an aerial onslaught. Its ground forces are vulnerable to combined tank, infantry and jet assault.

“How long would it take to destroy our air force?” the palace official asked. “Oh, a couple of hours.”

Jordanian officials paint intricate scenarios of how Jordan could be sucked into war.

In Iraq’s case, it would be to open a second front to involve Israel in hopes of converting the conflict over Kuwait into a pan-Arab, anti-Israeli crusade. The goal is more political than military; Iraq would hope that Arab adversaries now lined up with the United States would be forced to switch sides. One way to induce Israel into action would be to send Iraqi troops into Jordan. Israeli Foreign Minister Moshe Arens has already warned Iraq and Jordan that such a move would trigger an Israeli attack.

A second, perhaps more likely way of involving Jordan would be through an oft-threatened Iraqi air attack on Israel. Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein has pledged to launch chemical-tipped missiles against Israel if his country is attacked by the U.S.-led forces massed in Saudi Arabia.

An Iraqi missile attack need not involve Jordan in any way, and Jordan would probably look the other way if Iraqi warplanes targeted Israel. But could Jordan so easily ignore the Israeli counterattack?

Foreign diplomats believe that King Hussein would come under pressure to make at least a nominal effort to curtail Israeli overflights of Jordan. Palestinian politicians and the public would demand it. “But such gestures have a way of ending in disaster,” said one Western diplomat who recalled how Jordan’s marginal participation in the 1967 Middle East War led directly to its loss of the fertile and populous West Bank of the Jordan River.

One worrisome element in the equation is the discipline of King Hussein’s 80,000-member army. On several occasions during the past year, individual or small groups of soldiers and militiamen have tried to infiltrate Israel to carry out guerrilla attacks. Each time, Jordan blamed the incident on deserters. Israel in each case warned Hussein to keep a tighter watch on his troops, and the uproar subsided.

Suppose an impassioned member of Jordan’s armed forces decided to produce his own heroics--fire a few rounds across the river or blast away with one of the tanks stationed at strategic intervals to block the access of invading armies? An incident that could be played down during peacetime might prove a provocation as war tensions mount. “Battles have begun over less,” remarked a Western diplomat.

Jordanian officials worry that Israel is, in fact, looking for a provocation, and not just as a means of engaging Iraq and destroying its military strength. Jordanians widely suspect that Israel might seize the opportunity afforded by war to resolve or gain an edge in its dispute with the Palestinians.

There sometimes seem to be 1,001 versions of how Israel might exploit the situation, but a few stand out in Jordanian minds. The most common is that Israel, in response to some attack from Iraq or Jordan itself, would seize Jordanian territory on the East Bank of the Jordan River.

In the aftermath of war, Israel would offer a deal: a permanent peace with Jordan in return for the land. According to this scenario, such a trade-off would be similar to the return of the Sinai to Egypt in the sense that Israel would seek a peace treaty with its neighbor while maintaining control of the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Another scenario would see the mass deportation of West Bank Palestinians to Jordan on the grounds that they are a threat to Israel because of their support for Iraq.

A still more apocalyptic scenario is the overthrow by arms of King Hussein and Israeli installation of a government that would agree to give up Palestinian claims to the West Bank and Gaza. This scenario gained currency among Jordanians because it is believed here to represent the aspiration of several top officials in the Israeli government of Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir. The Jordan-is-Palestine group includes Housing Minister Ariel Sharon, a leading hawk; Deputy Foreign Minister Benyamin Netanyahu, and numerous representatives of small, right-wing coalition partners.

Since the crisis began, both Jordan and Israel have taken pains to assure each other of their peaceful, wholly defensive intentions. Worried Jordanians are not convinced. Each time an Israeli official expresses hope that King Hussein does nothing in this crisis to undermine his rule, Jordanian officials virtually twitch in unison.