Congressmen See Slim Vote for War : Gulf crisis: Speaker Foley and Sens. Dole and Lugar predict authorization of force against Iraq. The prospect of negotiated peace seems to grow even dimmer.

Congressional leaders predicted Sunday that Congress will vote--at least by a slim majority--to authorize President Bush to go to war with Iraq.

Although Senate support for such a resolution might be no greater than 60 to 40, according to one estimate, Secretary of State James A. Baker III said the President would view such a vote as helpful in his effort to persuade Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to back down.

It was the first indication that Bush and congressional leaders are moving to resolve their recent stalemate over the role Congress should play in deciding whether to unleash the more than 325,000 American troops deployed in the Persian Gulf area.

At the same time, Administration officials expressed little hope that Iraq will withdraw from Kuwait by Jan. 15 in the face of the President’s military threat. Bush’s national security adviser, Brent Scowcroft, said that he sees “no weakening” of Iraq’s position.

And prospects for a negotiated settlement appeared to grow even dimmer. Baker, who left Washington on Sunday for a final diplomatic swing before the Jan. 15 deadline set by the United Nations, emphasized that after he meets with Iraqi Foreign Minister Tarik Aziz in Geneva on Wednesday, there will be no further talks between the United States and Iraq in an effort to avert war.

“I am closing the door,” he declared.

Later, during his flight to London, Baker said that Bush and other allied leaders had not yet made the final decision on when or even whether to go to war if Hussein continues to refuse to pull out of Kuwait.

“Part of my job on this trip is to talk about next steps and talk about what the state of planning is and . . . is not,” Baker told reporters aboard his plane.

Until now, Bush has stoutly refused to recognize the constitutionally mandated power of Congress to declare war. Instead, he has discouraged congressional leaders from bringing the matter to a vote, fearing that a negative result would undercut him in negotiations with Iraq.

But at least three prominent members of Congress, all appearing on Sunday morning television interview programs, indicated that Bush has little to fear about asking Congress to authorize military action against Iraq.

Both the House and Senate are scheduled to begin debate on the Persian Gulf crisis this week.

Speaker Thomas S. Foley (D-Wash.) predicted that the House would “narrowly” authorize the use of force in the Persian Gulf. Likewise, Minority Leader Bob Dole (R-Kan.) and Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R-Ind.) both said the Senate would support such a resolution.

Dole, appearing on ABC’s “This Week With David Brinkley” along with Foley and Baker, predicted that the Senate vote would be 60-40 in favor of military action. “That’s about in line with public support now,” he added, “and it may be a little low.”

In addition, Dole said that Bush’s majority in Congress would grow as the prospects of war increase. “I think with the growing public support in the United States,” he said, “if Congress does nothing and he decides to use force, I think you will see an upsurge of support in Congress.”

In response to these predictions, Baker indicated for the first time that the President would welcome such a vote. He added that a 60-40 majority would be “more helpful” to the President than no vote at all.

Baker’s statement reflects an important change in the Administration’s position, Foley noted. He said that until now, Bush has wanted nothing less than “a very, very high, almost consensual sense of support (from Congress), and that is not going to happen.”

As a practical matter, Foley added, the margin of support does not matter very much if it authorizes war. As he put it: “From a constitutional standpoint, it doesn’t really make any difference what the percentage is as long as it’s a majority.”

The Speaker predicted that Bush will not ask Congress to approve a declaration of war but instead will seek a congressional resolution similar to that adopted by the United Nations, which authorizes the use of force if Iraq does not leave Kuwait. The effect of such a resolution would also be to authorize war, Foley said.

In the Senate, the big unknown is whether opponents of a Persian Gulf war such as Sens. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) and Brock Adams (D-Wash.) can successfully filibuster, thus preventing a vote on the resolution. While it takes only a simple majority to authorize force, a two-thirds majority is needed to break a filibuster.

“The problem for the President is, if the Senate follows its normal course and we spend weeks with filibusters, with other amendments, with one side or the other fearing they’re going to lose, then there will be no resolution,” explained Lugar, who appeared on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

For that reason, Lugar said that he and the President’s other supporters would press to limit Senate debate to “a tight time frame.”

But Majority Leader George J. Mitchell (D-Me.), appearing on CBS’ “Face the Nation,” said that the Senate initially will consider a two-step procedure proposed by Harkin and others. The first would be to restrict Bush from taking any action without congressional approval; the second would be to act on a request from Bush for a declaration of war.

But Mitchell, while acknowledging that a two-step proposal might not be accepted, predicted that the debate would be concluded “in a matter of days,” despite the filibuster threat.

Both Foley and Mitchell indicated that they personally do not support the use of force at this juncture, even though they expect many Democrats to vote for it. Dole warned that the President is likely to intervene militarily on his own authority as commander in chief if Congress fails to authorize the use of force.

If Bush goes to war without congressional approval, Mitchell conceded, Congress will do nothing to stop him. “The only available recourse is to cut off funds, (and) that’s very unlikely to occur if combat is under way and American troops are on the firing line.”

Meanwhile, it was clear that congressional leaders do not expect Bush to foreclose further talks with Iraq after Wednesday’s meeting in Geneva, even though both the President and Baker have ruled out flatly any additional meetings. Bush said Friday that he would not permit Baker to go to Baghdad to meet directly with Hussein, as Iraq is proposing.