IMPACT OF THE GULF CRISIS : Experts Predict Smooth Sailing : Shipping: Unlike the situation in the Iran-Iraq war, analysts say the shooting this time would probably not target commercial vessels.

Though bomb-laden airplanes and missiles would be shrieking overhead, oil tankers and other commercial vessels that ply the Persian Gulf are not expected to become targets if war breaks out between U.S.-led forces and Iraq.

While brokers and industry analysts believe commercial vessels would steer clear of Saudi Arabian ports in the first few days of hostilities, most believe that major disruptions to world shipping would be avoided.

Despite skyrocketing war-risk insurance premiums for operating in the possible war zone, nobody anticipates a replay of events during the eight-year war between Iran and Iraq, when both combatants took aim at shipping, and 500 vessels were hit and 200 seamen lost their lives.

“What I expect is that there would be a few days when shipowners would instruct their captains to stay out of the gulf, and then they’ll give them the green light,” said Philip Dodge, a vice president of Nomura Research Institute.

The optimistic assessment is based on the belief that Iraq’s missiles would be destroyed and its air force blown out of the sky by the allies in the first few days of hostilities.

Even if this expectation proves wrong, shipping experts theorize that Iraq would have many more important targets to concentrate on than oil tankers.

“This is not going to be like Iran-Iraq, when both sides deliberately shot at, and hit, tankers,” said Bob Rettig, fleet manager for Chevron Shipping Co., a unit of the international oil giant.

Chevron had two tankers loading crude in Saudi Arabia on Friday but expects them to leave the area by Jan. 13. Chevron’s next scheduled pickup in the region is “in late January,” Rettig said. Exxon has chartered the Kakuyo Maru to load crude oil at Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura port on Jan. 19, while British Petroleum will be picking up oil there on Jan. 22.

Even if Iraq tried to bomb the giant Ras Tanura refining, shipping and storage complex, no major disruptions are anticipated. “Look, eight years of fighting did not stop Iranian oil, and (Iran’s) Kharg Island was bombed continuously by the Iraqis,” said one New York-based shipping broker.

Even if tanker operators become skittish about sending their ships into a war zone, the Saudis are mapping plans to move their oil on a Saudi-controlled “shuttle” fleet, the Dow Jones News Service reported Friday. The Saudi vessels would undoubtedly be protected by the U.S. Air Force.

The “shuttle” strategy was used successfully by Iran to continue moving its oil during the worst of the Iraqi bombardments during the eight-year war. Under the Saudi plan, state-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co. and Saudi Arabian Marketing & Refining Co. would use ships under their control to move crude and refined products from Saudi ports in the northern gulf to more placid waters farther south.

In addition, Saudi Arabia and Iran are well-prepared to handle any short-term disruption of supplies from the region, industry sources said, having chartered up to 100 previously idle supertankers in recent months to store and transport oil.

While tankers won’t likely be targets, their owners do face certain other risks in the event of war. “If Saudi oil fields are hit and production stops, there’s a real possibility that shipowners might be stuck owning tankers but not having much to move,” said James L. Winchester, shipping analyst at the securities firm Mabon, Nugent & Co.

Other possible repercussions to international shipping in the event of hostilities could be a shortage of capacity for cargo bound for overseas from the United States, especially if the military exercises its right to seize certain U.S. vessels for its own resupply needs.

“Our participation, should war come, could even include the U.S. government taking over some of our vessels completely,” said Gil Roeder, a spokesman for American President Lines.

Roeder said APL, the dominant U.S. container ship line in the Pacific basin, is already experiencing “pressures on our ability to serve both the military and our commercial customers.”

Already, the Military Sealift Command has chartered 123 vessels in support of Operation Desert Shield and has activated another 68 vessels from the mothballed National Defense Reserve Fleet. Patricia Larson, a spokeswoman for the Military Sealift Command, declined to disclose contingency plans in the event of war, citing “security reasons.”

SHIPPING DEVELOPMENTS ON THE BRINK OF WAR Oil tankers rush to fill up and leave the Persian Gulf before the Jan. 15 deadline for Iraq’s withdrawal from Kuwait.

War-risk insurance premiums for vessels calling at Saudi ports continue to skyrocket, jumping to 2% of a ship’s value per voyage from last week’s already stratospheric 1%.

Saudi Arabia maps contingency plans to create a shuttle service to haul oil from the likely war zone to more placid waters in the southern Persian Gulf.

U.S. commercial shipping lines contemplate the possible seizure of their vessels to support U.S. military operations.

Los Angeles Times

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