2 Sides Accused of Silence on Human Impact of Raids

The Jordanian leadership charged Wednesday that there is “a conspiracy of silence” about the human impact of the massive allied air strikes in neighboring Iraq and urged both parties in the war to disclose whether attacks on Iraqi military targets have poisoned the land with chemical or nuclear fallout.

In a one-hour interview with The Times, Jordan’s Crown Prince Hassan also expressed deep concern about the likelihood of another massive exodus of refugees from Iraq when the allied bombardment ultimately subsides, among them large numbers of wounded civilians.

“It doesn’t take much to cause major disasters, as we saw with the effects of the Scuds on Tel Aviv yesterday,” the prince said. “So, if you take the comparative tonnage going into Iraq, the mind boggles. But how are we going to cope with the casualties? Are Iraqi hospitals, even under the best of circumstances, going to be able to cope with all this?

“This is going to be a major disaster.”

Prince Hassan, who is the brother of King Hussein and a key Jordanian policy-maker, noted Pentagon statements that great care is being taken by allied bombers to avoid civilian targets. But he stressed that both the allies and the Iraqis have been secretive about the potential human disaster next door.

“You find the military on the U.S. side and the coalition saying, ‘We have attacked and neutralized chemical and nuclear plants.’ Well, was this without any seepage at all? Who’s asking, anyway? Who’s checking?

“And the gut fear I have is that, if a tactical nuke is used, who is going to know it until after it’s done? I mean the tonnage of bombardment you’re talking about today, it would be very difficult to tell the difference.”

Referring to what he called “a conspiracy of silence on civilian casualties,” the prince said Jordan’s most difficult task a full week into the war is preparing for its full impact on his border nation, which already has absorbed, fed, housed and repatriated more than 1 million evacuees from Iraq over several months last fall.

The allies, he said, “are not saying anything beyond the fact that they’re being extremely careful not to attack civilian targets, and . . . I’m afraid . . . they would be attacking civilian targets.”

Iraq, he added, either because of national morale or its physical inability to broadcast regularly to the outside world, also has been largely silent on its civilian casualty toll, aside from vague official numbers and allegations such as Wednesday’s charge that U.S. planes bombed a baby-formula factory near Baghdad.

As yet, however, the prince conceded that far fewer refugees than expected have come across Jordan’s eastern border crossing at Ruweished. As of Wednesday, the official total stood at just over 7,300 in the past week. U.N. officials in Geneva predicted two weeks ago that Jordan could well receive more than 100 times that number when war broke out.

“The only plausible answer to that is the bombardment,” the prince said when asked to explain why so few have arrived. “I don’t think anyone is putting their head out long enough to move. After these main arteries, bridges and so forth were attacked, nobody is going to be able to organize a convoy, and I don’t think trekking across the desert is a plausible alternative.”

Nevertheless, given the almost complete breakdown of water, sanitation and power supplies in Baghdad, compounded by Iraq’s official order Wednesday that all gas stations in the country will be closed until further notice, the prince added that everyone able to flee Iraq will do so as soon as they can.

“If the bombardment were to cease, clearly I think there is going to be a possibility of a major evacuation,” he said.

Iraq reportedly closed its border with Jordan on Wednesday, blocking the exodus of thousands of refugees, the Associated Press reported.

Jordanian officials at the border post of Ruweished said they had no direct word about the closure from the Iraqi side, but knew the border was shut because the stream of fleeing evacuees stopped abruptly during the night.

One Jordanian official said 2,490 refugees, mostly Egyptians and Somalis and a few Indians, had crossed the border Tuesday. He said it was the largest number to cross on a single day since the war began.

Meanwhile, on Iraq’s eastern frontier with Iran, about 2,000 foreigners have crossed the border since the war began, Iran’s Islamic Republic News Agency reported Wednesday.

The agency, monitored in Nicosia, Cyprus, said the International Red Cross has set up stations near the border in Iran border to assist the refugees.

Prince Hassan was careful during the wide-ranging interview to echo his brother’s carefully crafted stance of nonalignment in the conflict. He reiterated Jordan’s deep desire to avoid getting drawn into the war, which would be inevitable if Israel used Jordanian airspace to attack Iraq. But he said he thinks it unlikely that Israel would attack at this stage.

“Rationally, I think it’s an unlikely possibility,” he said, although he quickly added that Jordan’s worst fear “from Day One” has been “that the Iraqis will Zionize the conflict. Then, that leads to all kinds of fears, such as the skeleton in the cupboard--the ‘Jordan as Palestine’ suggestion--which is a major undermining of regional stability.”

The prince acknowledged the growing anger here at the United States and its allies, particularly among Jordan’s youth.