Prospects of Civil War Fill Croatia With Fear : Yugoslavia: The cross-cultural hatred has been building for decades. The threat of apocalypse is keeping emotions in check, one observer says.

It is difficult to imagine the crack of rifle fire piercing the winter serenity of Zagreb’s broad boulevards or the crash of mortar shells pock-marking elegant villas that remind strollers this was once part of Hapsburg Austria.

Yet fear of war is epidemic in Croatia, where only a few months ago the threat of violence against the new anti-Communist leadership was dismissed as little more than saber rattling by rival Serbia.

Yugoslavia’s two largest republics are so absorbed with their own explosive crisis that one could forget here that another war is already raging in the Gulf.

Newspapers and broadcasts are dominated by the intrigues and scandals connected with a monthlong standoff between Croatia and the Serbian-dominated federal army, which many fear could soon degenerate into a nationalist blood bath.

Croatia’s leaders have ceased fighting off confrontation through diplomatic channels; instead, they are arming an independent militia and warning citizens that they could face an imminent attack.

Expectations of a peaceful resolution of the Yugoslav crisis have all but vanished. But some argue that the terrifying consequences of unleashing fratricide offer the last and best reason for holding fire.

“We shouldn’t believe (Belgrade authorities) just because they say the federal army will invade,” said the chief political adviser to the Croatian leadership, Slaven Letica, in a tone that could be mistaken for bravado. But when asked why he is so confident when Croatia and Serbia seem electrified with fears of war, Letica says it is the threat of apocalypse keeping emotions in check.

“If it starts, we will have bloodshed like never before in history. There has been such an accumulation of prejudice and hatred for decades. There would be a total breakdown. There are cross-cultural conflicts between Communists and anti-Communists, between Serbs and Croats, between Serbs and Albanians, between Roman Catholics and Orthodox, between haves and have-nots. If we started killing each other, nobody could control what would happen.”

Yugoslavia can only pray for “historical instinct to act against the start of civil war,” Letica said, recalling that half of the 1.7 million Yugoslavs killed during World War II died at the hands of their own countrymen.

That instinct for self-preservation appears to have kicked in two weeks ago, when army intervention in Croatia was prevented by what all sides describe as a miracle. Republic police and Communist-controlled federal troops were on a full wartime footing when a last-minute compromise was reached in unprecedented talks between Croatian President Franjo Tudjman and his archrival Serbian counterpart, Slobodan Milosevic.

Croatian reservists were to have turned in their weapons, under the agreement, and federal troops were taken off high alert. But tensions flared again a few days later when Belgrade ordered the arrest of Croatian Defense Minister Martin Spegelj on army charges that Croatians contend are suspect if not forged.

Three attempts at negotiation among the presidents of Yugoslavia’s six republics have failed, most recently on Friday. A Serbian rally in Belgrade accusing Croats of plotting genocide prompted Tudjman and Milan Kucan of Slovenia to boycott the talks there. The Slovenes say they see no point in further tries and will expedite secession, formally ending ties with Yugoslavia later this month.

While the talks were aimed at averting collapse of the Yugoslav federation, they had the effect of speeding it up. The irreconcilable differences among the unlike republics seem to have become obvious in that troubled conference room.

“It has become clear that the Yugoslav presidency is not the place where the conflicting sides will reconcile or come to any solution whatsoever,” commented the federal daily Borba.

Mario Nobilo, another top aide in the Croatian leadership, says the federal institutions have lost all credibility because of their unmistakable Serbian bias.

Yugoslav power is firmly vested in an eight-man presidency with rotating chairmen, a scheme devised by late Yugoslav Communist Josip Broz Tito to share authority among the six republics and two formerly autonomous provinces of Serbia.

But Tito’s plan never envisioned the fall of communism in some republics.

The presidency’s real sway rests with its command of the army. The military’s top ranks are 70% Serbian, and the current head of the presidency is a staunchly Communist Serb, Borisav Jovic--a combination of political advantages that for now has given Serbia virtual rule over Yugoslavia.

A worrisome change looms on the horizon, as the presidency rotates to Croatia in May. Western diplomats in Zagreb fear Serbia will make use of its current advantage by launching an aggression against Croatia soon.

Serbia opposes Croatian independence, claiming to fear the fate of 600,000 ethnic Serbs who live in this Western republic, which was allied with the Nazis during World War II. Milosevic, the Serbian president, has insisted that all Serbs remain in one nation, hinting that force could be applied to prevent the breakup of Yugoslavia.

Another factor in Serbia’s support for the federation is the economic boost that relationship provides. Per capita income is twice as high in Slovenia and Croatia as in most areas of Serbia, so the Western republics contribute more to support the federal government than do those in the south.

About two-thirds of the federal budget goes to support the army, which has given the military a financial stake in keeping Yugoslavia united.

“Of course they want to keep an arrangement where we work and they hold all the money,” said Josip Loncar, a Croatian customs agent. “We have nothing against the Serbs as people. Most of them are fine. It’s just the fanatics who are driving us toward war.”

Serbian media and Communist organizations have whipped up anti-Croatian feeling to virtual hysteria.

“Concentration camps for Serbs in Croatia!” screamed a headline in the popular Serbian daily Express Politika, over a story claiming Croatian police had beefed up patrols in Serbian regions. “Plans for genocide!” and “Lies” were the headlines over Croatian statements.

Letica, Tudjman’s chief aide, accuses Serbian Communists of creating “Goebbels-like propaganda” to engender hatred and fear of the Croats.

Any day’s reading of the officially controlled Serbia press bears out Letica’s claim. But neither has Croatia been silent in the war of words. Its media are relatively independent, but newspapers reflect an increasing belligerence among Croats that extends to, or perhaps emanates from, the top.

Little foreign attention is paid to Yugoslavia now, because of the crisis in the Gulf. But Yugoslavs warn that their situation is volatile and could plunge the European continent into a devastating war. Croats and Slovenes have been trying to muster Western support in the event they are attacked by the Communist forces.

“These political games in Yugoslavia are based on a lot of bluffing. But the chance of violence exists,” Nobilo cautioned. “People are exhausted and nervous, and no one can predict which wing inside the army will decide how to move.”