PERSPECTIVE ON ISRAEL : An Extremist Goes Mainstream : A proponent of expelling Palestinians joins the cabinet, and to a Jewish state under siege, his platform has appeal.

With two recent actions, the Israeli government has given notice of its intentions for the post-Gulf War era. First came the arrest of Sari Nusseibeh, a leading voice of moderation among Palestinians on the West Bank. Nusseibeh was placed in administrative detention for allegedly providing Iraq with information about locations hit by Scud missiles. Even more ominous was Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir’s decision to co-opt into the governing coalition the extreme right-wing Homeland party (Moledet), headed by retired Gen. Rehavam Zeevi.

Zeevi, who is widely known by the nickname Gandhi, founded his party on the eve of the 1988 general elections, with a platform calling for the “transfer” of the Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza. Another “transfer” party, Rabbi Meir Kahane’s Kach movement, had succeeded in having its leader elected to the Knesset in 1984 but was disqualified from running in 1988 for advocating racist policies.

Zeevi timed the founding of Homeland to benefit from Kach’s demise, and Homeland went on to elect two members to the Knesset. Its votes, however, did not come primarily from the poverty-stricken areas that had supported Kahane, but were spread more or less evenly through most sectors. This is because Zeevi’s idea of “transfer” differs from Kahane’s in one important respect: Where Kahane envisioned removing all Palestinians from land under Israel’s control, including those who were Israeli citizens, Zeevi would remove “only” the 1.7 million in the occupied territories--or so he says. Since Homeland’s platform did not infringe on the rights of Israeli citizens, it was not barred from the elections as Kahane’s party was.

When challenged on the similarity between his views and Kahane’s, Zeevi’s stock answer has been that while Kahane was advocating the forced expulsion of the Palestinians, his version of “transfer” would be based on agreement. The agreement he has in mind, however, is not with the transferees themselves; it is with one or more of the Arab countries that would take them.

Obviously, no Arab country as presently constituted would ever agree to accept the Palestinians expelled from the occupied territories. Zeevi’s plan would require, therefore, not only the forced removal of the Palestinians themselves, but also the temporary occupation of at least some part of the receiving country, probably Jordan or Lebanon. Thus it would involve as much violence as Kahane’s plan.

The co-option of Homeland into the governing coalition entailed the appointment of Zeevi himself to the special inner cabinet that deals with security and foreign affairs. This was done over the objection of Shamir’s more moderate ministers and the highly symbolic negative vote cast by Benjamin Begin, son of the former prime minister. Shamir’s determination to go through with Zeevi’s appointment must be seen in the context of the current war.

While most Israelis have enthusiastically supported the war against Iraq, they are also very angry at having to bear the brunt of Iraqi retaliation. Their anger is directed at the Western powers, which cynically armed and supported Iraq for years; at the Palestinians, who are supporting Iraq now; and at not being able to defend themselves against the Scuds. In this climate of opinion, with Israel the passive victim of Iraqi missile attacks, neither the West nor the Israeli peace movement can be very effective in defending the Palestinians against “transfer” schemes.

The current rift between Jordan and the United States increases the likelihood that an attempt will be made to solve the Palestinian problem at Jordan’s expense. This may be done by deposing King Hussein, declaring Jordan, which already has a majority Palestinian population, the Palestinian state and “encouraging” the Palestinians in the occupied territories to move there.

The primary rationale for “transfer,” an idea supported by about 50% of the Jewish public in Israel, is demographic. Palestinians constitute roughly 40% of the population in Israel and the Occupied Territories. If current rates of natural increase continue, Palestinians will become the majority by the middle of the next century. Massive Soviet Jewish immigration will reduce this demographic pressure, but the need to find employment for these immigrants serves as an incentive to replace Palestinians with Jewish workers in the Israeli labor market. This trend was reinforced by the escalation of the intifada last fall and the imposition of a curfew in the territories for the duration of the Gulf War. Since hardly any alternative jobs exist in the territories, pressure is mounting on many Palestinians to seek their livelihood elsewhere.

Israel’s restraint in the face of Iraqi aggression has regained it the good will of many people in the West. It would be tragic if this good will were squandered in an effort to hold on to the occupied territories, instead of being used to enhance the chances of peace. Unfortunately, the Shamir government, ideologically committed to “Greater Israel,” may be planning to do just that.