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Massive Land-Sea-Air Push Expected in Days : Onslaught: Unless Iraq surrenders or strikes a diplomatic deal, the President will order the assault this week, senior Pentagon officials predict.

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TIMES STAFF WRITER

Barring an Iraqi surrender or a diplomatic deal in the next three days, the United States is planning to unleash this week a ground, air and sea assault of unprecedented ferocity against the half a million Iraqi troops in Kuwait and southern Iraq, senior Pentagon officials said Saturday.

U.S. ground and amphibious forces were given orders at the start of the war to be ready to mount a coordinated offensive any time after Feb. 15, and they are now ready, military officials said.

The final call on whether--and when--to launch a ground war will be made by President Bush, who has said in press conferences that he will reserve that decision for himself.

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But “the table has been set,” a senior Army officer said Saturday. “We are in position. We can go any time. We are very close to the level of destruction (of Iraqi troops and equipment) that the commanders wanted to see. This isn’t video-game stuff anymore. This is real.”

The intense, monthlong air campaign has cut the combat effectiveness of the Iraqi army virtually in half, one senior military operations officer said. “His army is close to 50% destroyed and the casualties are very high,” he said.

Iraqi prisoners of war have reported that the Iraqi army is burying some of its dead in mass graves in Kuwait and hauling other bodies back to Iraq in refrigerator trucks, a Pentagon officer with access to sensitive data said.

Defense Secretary Dick Cheney said Saturday that continued air strikes would further weaken the Iraqi forces. But several senior defense officials said that U.S. commanders in the theater would be comfortable with an order to initiate the ground campaign at any time.

“Every day just makes it easier,” one Army officer said. “We could fruitfully continue air operations for a month, but I don’t think that’s necessary. The troops are ready as they’re going to get.”

Commanders in Saudi Arabia have ordered a number of specific preparatory and diversionary operations over the next several days--the capture of an island off the Kuwaiti coast, naval bombardment of several possible amphibious landing zones, artillery and helicopter strikes across the Kuwaiti border and armed reconnaissance patrols into enemy territory.

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The Air Force will step up its bombing over Kuwait and southern Iraq to wear down the enemy troops and keep the Iraqis guessing about when and where the ground attack will come, Pentagon officials said.

Warplanes will drop fuel-air explosives and giant 15,000-pound “daisy-cutter” bombs to clear minefields, pack down sand to ease movement of allied armored columns and further terrorize and demoralize the lightly armed Iraqi infantry troops manning the front lines.

But the main action, when it comes, will be unmistakable, officers said.

“There’ll be no doubt that it’s started,” a senior Army officer said. “It’ll be massive. It’ll be violent. It’ll be fast. It’ll be everything you ever wanted in a war and never got.”

Military officials familiar with the plan said the assault will take place somewhere along the central or western part of the border between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and will involve an attack force of corps size--approaching 70,000 men and hundreds of tanks, mobile artillery pieces and rocket launchers.

Army and Marine Corps divisions will conduct simultaneous enveloping attacks around the left flank--in Iraqi territory--and an amphibious assault on Kuwaiti beaches.

The Air Force has, for the past two weeks, engaged in a process known as “shaping the battlefield”--destroying tanks and artillery pieces, isolating units from their headquarters, carving passages through minefields and anti-tank ditches.

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Following the military concept of economy of force, U.S. commanders are positioning their strongest and most mobile troops against the weakest part of the Iraqi line. Smaller allied units will “fix” other Iraqi forces to prevent them from reinforcing the part of the line that will bear the brunt of the allied assault.

“Apart from all our other advantages, we have one huge advantage--we know when we’re going, where we’re going and how we’re going,” a Pentagon officer said. “We’re going to pound the (stuffing) out of these fellows.”

The main thrust through the heavily fortified Iraqi front lines will be immediately preceded by aerial and artillery strikes of almost unimaginable intensity, Army officers said. The bombardment will take place at several points along the Iraqi lines to disguise the true breakthrough point.

The assault likely will occur at night, when U.S. superiority in night-vision equipment and infrared surveillance will produce a decided advantage.

After blanketing the battlefield with explosives, smoke and cluster bombs, Army engineers will begin the painstaking process of blasting a highway through one of the densest mine belts in history.

Using tank-pushed rollers, mine plows and snake-like mine-clearing line charges, engineers will attempt to breach a path through the minefield as rapidly as possible.

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Meanwhile, Iraqi heavy guns will be suppressed with high-speed cannon carried aboard Air Force A-10 Warthogs and AC-130 gunships, rocket fire from helicopters, Army multiple rocket launch systems and artillery.

The breaching action is expected to be the costliest operation of the entire war, Army officials said, with anticipated casualty rates running from 10% to 100% in some units, depending on size and other factors.

“It could be very costly. We could get lucky, but we expect we’ll pay,” an Army officer said. “But once we break through, we’re gone. These are dug-in infantry and they can’t chase us.”

Small combat teams will peel off the main armored column and pin down and round up the Iraqi troops.

“We may have to go in there and kill them one at a time, but their history doesn’t indicate that will happen,” a military official said, citing the Iraqi soldier’s tendency to surrender when confronted by equal or superior forces during the Iran-Iraq War.

“We will make these thrusts that will envelop a huge part of his force,” he said. “We’re hoping then that he’ll quit.”

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Several military officers involved in planning the operation said they expect the ground campaign to last between a week and a month, depending on the tenacity of Iraqi troops.

Military planners assume Saddam Hussein will order the use of chemical weapons against U.S. and allied troops. They anticipate an effort to commit what remains of the Iraqi air force to the battle.

On the political front, Hussein may dramatize civilian deaths in Iraq in an effort to sway public opinion in the United States or split the alliance, or he may offer surprise diplomatic initiatives.

But U.S. officials say they’re prepared for the unexpected.

“We intend to follow our doctrine,” an Army planner said. “Our doctrine is designed for us to be unpredictable and cope with the other guy’s unpredictability. There’s nothing he can do that we can’t cope with. He doesn’t have a Sunday punch.

“I’m not saying he can’t hit us or hurt us,” he added. “But he can’t hurt us enough to cause us to fall off our plan.”.

The presence of chemical weapons on the battlefield complicates and slows the attack, officials acknowledged. The protective masks limit vision, hamper communication and reduce mobility. The bulky gear causes exhaustion and the sight of sick and dying comrades will erode morale.

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“It unquestionably makes it tougher to operate with the speed and initiative that the doctrine calls for,” an Army battle planner said.

The military plans two responses--to “go deep” behind the Iraqi front lines and destroy the chemical weapons and the means to deliver them. Much of the air effort of the last few days has been devoted to locating and destroying these Iraqi assets.

The other option is to engage the Iraqi troops at such close quarters that the gas will affect both sides equally, officials said.

American and allied commanders have moved hundreds of military police and intelligence officers to the front lines to accept what they expect to be thousands of surrendering or deserting Iraqi soldiers.

U.S. military leaders have concluded that the peace-feeler that Hussein issued Friday arose from his realization that U.S. ground forces will chew up his army and leave him with nothing to support his regime, several Pentagon officials said.

They said they expect Hussein to continue to dangle settlement offers in hopes of forestalling the impending final push.

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“He’s motivated not by what we’ve done so far, but by what we’re about to do. He’s most concerned by the realization he’s going to lose on the ground. He’s going to lose the entire structure of his military,” one senior officer said. “He’s checkmated and he knows it.”

Times staff writer Robin Wright contributed to this story.

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