JORDAN: A COUNTRY IN THE MIDDLE

QUESTION: Is Jordan’s King Hussein siding with Saddam Hussein?

ANSWER: The Jordanian monarch has been trying to walk a difficult diplomatic tightrope of neutrality. In an impassioned Feb. 6 address to his nation, he expressed the strongest possible sympathy and support for the Iraqi people, particularly the civilians enduring relentless bombardment and critical shortages of food, fuel, heat and water. The personal solidarity the king expressed for the Iraqi people had two main motivations: The king’s personal outrage over the destruction of any Arab nation and the massive popular pressure from his own subjects, among whom more than 50% are of Palestinian origin.

Q. What kind of relationship has the king historically had with Saddam?

A. King Hussein has never had as close a personal relationship with the Iraqi president, as he has had with President Bush. There are basic philosophical disagreements between the king’s government and Saddam’s Arab Baath Socialist Party, and the relationship between the two leaders has been largely cool but cordial. Since the gulf crisis began last August, though, there have been extensive contacts between Saddam Hussein and the king, who early in the crisis brokered a peace plan that would have allowed Iraq to retain two disputed islands from Kuwait and all of the vital Rumaila oil fields. That plan ultimately failed, but the king has been among the few world leaders capable of communicating with the Iraqi leader.

Q. What domestic considerations influence King Hussein’s thinking?

A. Besides the economic considerations (see accompanying text), Jordanians of Palestinian origin make up more than half of the Kingdom’s 3.1 million population, and they are largely smypathetic to Saddam. Politically, King Hussein feels he must speak for the emotional outrage of all people in his kingdom.

Q. Has the king turned on the United States, his longtime supporter?

A. The king has not turned on the United States but may feel that the United States has turned on him. He took equal pains in avoiding the mention of the United States or any other individual anti-Iraq coalition member in his Feb. 6 speech. Despite the fiery rhetoric about the demolition of Iraq, the king fully intended to continue walking his tightrope of neutrality, especially with the United States, with which he has extensive personal and bilateral ties (he is married to an American). However, the king is both upset and confused by the allied air strikes on his oil tankers on the Baghdad-Ruweished highway, Jordan’s only lifeline for the fuel oil he imports from Iraq. He is also puzzled by what he sees as a deliberate U.S. attempt to push him off his neutral stance.

Q. How much aid does Jordan receive from the United States?

A. U.S. aid to Jordan totals about $55 million annually, money the kingdom needs just to keep its economy at the current, marginal levels. Moreover, King Hussein is also losing Iraqi aid, at about $50 million. Saddam Hussein also has helped Jordan militarily, donating 120 Chieftain battle tanks, captured from Iran during their eight-year-war, to Jordan and helped to finance Jordanian arms purchases from the Soviet Union after the Amman government was rebuffed in its efforts to purchase American weaponry.

Q. What happens to King Hussein if Saddam loses the war and is deposed?

A. Regardless of the outcome of the allied war on Iraq, King Hussein is more than likely to remain in power, with or without a Saddam Hussein ruling next door. The king has survived 37 years of turmoil, conflict, civil war and crisis, and today’s troubles are little compared to the storms he has weathered in the past.

AN ECONOMY IN CHAOS

Iraq was Jordan’s main trading partner before the U.N.-imposed embargo that followed the invasion of Kuwait. During the 1980-99 Iran-Iraq War, as much as 80% of the traffic through Jordan’s port of Aqaba was to or from Iraq. In addition, resource-poor Jordan imported most of its oil, at very cheap rates, from its eastern neighbor. Trade with Iraq accounted for 11% of Jordan’s $4-billion economy in 1989.

Now, the Jordanian economy is basically in ruins. Milk, bread and sugar are already being rationed. The country’s largest earner of foreign exchange, the phosphate industry, is on the critical list because of the high insurance rates for shipping from Aqaba. The World Bank forecasts the losses to the Jordanian economy from the Gulf War at more than $1.5 billion annually. With no export earnings, Jordan is facing a severe foreign exchange crisis and unemployment is soaring.