SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA JOB MARKET : THE FUTURE : PLUGGING INTO HIGH-TECH JOBS : THE NEAR FUTURE

Woody Allen painfully recalled in an early monologue that, after more than 30 years at the factory, his father was replaced by a tiny gadget that did the job faster, cheaper and better than his father ever did.

“The really depressing thing,” Allen remembers, “was that my mother went out and bought one.”

Like Mrs. Allen, California’s job market is now counting on technological innovation to generate a little excitement. Even as the region endures the worst recession in decades, the hope is that new technologies will mean new jobs.

Yes, the numbers are almost unrelentingly bleak. The Los Angeles Times employment classified ads have tumbled by more than 40% from a year ago, and the Gulf War adds another layer of economic uncertainty, causing investment hesitation on the part of many corporations. But the fact is that California’s human capital infrastructure remains robust. Foreign investors still find the state and its businesses excellent investments relative to other parts of the country. Exciting breakthroughs in new materials, biotechnologies, computer software, new media technologies and medical instrumentation are just waiting to be commercialized. What’s more, the size and diversity of the regional economy virtually assures that a few growth-generating innovations will catch on somewhere.

Without question, service occupations at the intellectual cutting edge--such as biotechnology manufacturing engineers, or intellectual property (patents and copyrights) lawyers--will be the fastest-growing segment of California’s employment market. More explicitly, people who can add value to technology-intensive industries will have the best chance at good opportunities and superior compensation.

“We forecast that research & development management consulting will grow roughly 52% this decade,” says Robert K. Arnold, chairman of the Palo Alto-based Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy. “Computer services-related jobs will grow by 77%.”

Continuing investment in both research and development capabilities--as well as information technologies--guarantees increased growth in these sectors. However, the composition of these investments is shifting. There is far less emphasis on pure scientific research and far greater emphasis on bringing laboratory breakthroughs to the marketplace faster. Companies are investing more in the technology-transfer process.

Similarly, companies that once hired armies of programmers to man their computer systems are now buying more and more systems software off the shelf and counting on systems engineers and a cadre of software maintenance specialists to handle the information-processing load. More thought is being put into the design of systems that are inexpensive to maintain, rather than pell-mell investments in computer networks that will end up costing more money than they will save. There will always be a market for superb programmers; today, there is a growing demand for systems analysts who know how to configure technology to deliver more bang for the buck. This holds true in the highly competitive, highly capital-intensive technology world of silicon chips. Even as National Semiconductor laid off thousands of workers, it was hiring engineers who were skilled at designing certain kinds of custom chips. As far as many U.S. semiconductor companies are concerned, the value added is found increasingly in the design of the chip--not just its fabrication. People who can craft and build computer-aided silicon chip design tools are hot commodities.

“Santa Clara County is becoming more of a center for research and development but less of a center for manufacturing,” observes Paul Kohlenberg, a labor-market analyst with the California Employment Development Department. “That means there are more jobs for electronics technicians, electronic engineers and software engineers.”

The medical instrumentation industry is also seeing a rise in demand for software and electronic engineers. Unlike the traditional electronics business, medical instrumentation seems to be retaining its manufacturing infrastructure.

Issues arising from companies moving overseas, which have been troubling in electronics manufacturing, “have not been the case in medical-equipment manufacturing,” observes Kohlenberg. As the nation’s largest consumer of medical services and one of the nation’s densest concentrations of high-tech health-care facilities, California’s medical technology niche seems likely to broaden over the next decade. University-industry alliances in health technology--notably those at UCLA, Caltech and UC San Diego--may be a source of new enterprise formation.

However, it’s wildly uncertain how well California’s high-tech defense and aerospace industries will do. It’s unlikely that California’s defense companies can be insulated from the defense cuts roiling through the budget. It’s also uncertain just how much of a Hughes or Lockheed technology portfolio can be translated into a commercial sector success. One of the most fascinating industrial experiments to watch will be the aerospace giants’ efforts to compete in the commercial sector. These companies have exciting technologies in domains ranging from computer science to new materials. But can they be brought profitably to market?

The other intriguing technology question is whether environmental consciousness--and dictates from the clean-air plan of the South Coast Air Quality Management District--will dramatically boost development of environmental engineering and pollution-control systems. The popular 1970s and 1980s approach of sticking pollution control “at the end of the pipe” has given way to a far more sophisticated ideal of waste management at every stage of the production cycle. A host of young companies--and established giants such as Du Pont and 3M--have devised technologies that can transform production processes. If companies are required to make technological investments to comply to new environmental standards, this emerging high-tech sector will soar. Even under current regulatory guidelines, environmental technologies should enjoy disproportionately faster growth than most other industry sectors.

Obviously, as technology is increasingly woven into the fabric of everyday industry, it becomes more vulnerable to business cycles. Technology--even breakthrough innovations--is no longer immune to general economic conditions, as much as it might have been in the past.

But it’s clear that, even in the midst of a recession, organizations are prepared to continue investing in technology so long as there is the explicit promise of increased productivity. Yes, much of that investment has been to better cut and manage costs. But, as the cycle turns, those investments will be made to ignite and manage growth, and that means jobs.

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA JOB MARKET: Editor: Michael Parrish News Editor: Paul Zieke Art Director: Patricial Mitchell