GOP Preferred by 36% to 29%, New Poll Finds

More Americans now identify themselves as Republicans than Democrats on a scale not seen in 60 years, according to a new survey that suggests the GOP will easily retain the White House in 1992 and has the best chance in years at breaking the Democratic stranglehold on Congress.

The nationwide poll by Times Mirror Co. shows that, with support for the GOP surging in the wake of the allied victory in the Persian Gulf, those who identify themselves as Republicans outnumber Democrats 36% to 29% and hold a 50%-40% lead in congressional voting intentions.

Not since before the Great Depression of the 1930s has the Republican Party held such significant leads in either the number of people identifying themselves as Republicans or in their inclination to vote for GOP congressional candidates.

President Bush’s prospective reelection strength was demonstrated in a theoretical contest against New York’s Democratic Gov. Mario M. Cuomo, whom he crushed in the poll by more than 50 percentage points.

Political observers of both parties said that, with reapportionment and retirements expected to produce more than 100 open or closely contested House seats, the kind of major shift in party loyalties reflected in the poll could make 1992 a watershed congressional election year.

Even if the Republicans manage to retain most of the lead reflected in the poll, however, they still will face an uphill struggle to break the Democrats’ lock on Congress. Republicans are outnumbered by Democrats 267 to 167 in the House (with one independent) and 56 to 44 in the Senate.

Moreover, strategists for both parties cautioned that, while the poll results strongly favor Republicans today, developments between now and the November, 1992, election could benefit Democrats and alter the picture significantly.

Nevertheless, the poll is the latest in a series bringing good news to the GOP.

A Washington Post-ABC News poll taken earlier this month showed identical figures on the congressional vote preference but rated basic party identification essentially even.

A Los Angeles Times Poll last week found a 51%-41% majority preferring to be represented in the next Congress by a Republican. The GOP was endorsed as the party that would “do a better job of keeping America strong” by 59% to 23%.

Republican strategists are ecstatic over such results. “It’s great news for Republicans,” said Spencer Abraham, head of the GOP Congressional Campaign Committee. “It’ll have a positive impact on our hopes for gains in Congress, and it’ll help us raise money and recruit good candidates, because they’ll know they have a shot to win.”

Abraham’s predecessor, Edward J. Rollins, said Republicans will have “the best opportunity they’ve had” to recapture Congress. But if the party fails to take advantage of that opportunity, Rollins added, “we’re dooming ourselves to another decade of minority status in the House and Senate.”

A senior adviser to the President, noting that the White House’s own private polls alsoreflect significant strengthening of support for Bush and the party in the wake of the Gulf War, called the Times Mirror finding on party identification “damn good, terrific.”

“Polls go up and polls go down,” the adviser said, “but, when you have a breakthrough in party identification, that really counts.”

Les Francis, executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said that “there’s no reason (for Democrats) to panic.

“You could say if the election were held tomorrow the Republicans would win, but you could say if my grandmother had wheels she’d be a bicycle,” Francis added. “The election is 20 months away.”

Times Mirror’s Center for the People & the Press polled 2,028 Americans 18 years and older March 14-19. The poll has a 3-percentage-point margin of error. Times Mirror is the parent company of the Los Angeles Times and other newspaper, broadcasting and publishing enterprises.

If current attitudes about support for the Gulf War carry over into the election, Republicans will be helped and Democrats hurt by their votes on the issue of using force against Iraq, the poll found.

Of those polled, 47% said they would be less likely to vote for a member of Congress who voted against the use of force.

Even some categories of voters who opposed the use of force when the vote was taken in January now say they would vote against members of Congress who opposed force. By 42% to 13%, for example, women would be more likely to vote against, rather than for, a lawmaker who opposed use of force. Among blacks, the figures were 38% to 16%, and among Democrats, 39% to 13%.

The poll showed that, although the GOP has made gains among virtually all demographic groups, its most dramatic increase has been among young people. Of survey participants under the age of 30, those identifying themselves as Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 41% to 21%. As recently as six months ago, nationwide surveys showed a slim 31%-27% margin for Republicans among people under 30.

In traditional areas of Democratic strength, such as lower-income and less-educated Americans and those who reside in the East, Republicans also scored larger than average gains, the survey showed.

Black voters were found to be less averse to Republican candidates for Congress than they were a year earlier. Blacks favored Democratic congressional candidates over Republicans by a margin of 82% to 9% in the spring of 1990, but the new poll shows the Democratic margin has been reduced to 73% to 23%.

The only bright spot for Democrats was an indication that the values and political beliefs of some traditionally Democratic voters now attracted to the GOP differ greatly from those of traditional Republicans.

For example, 63% of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote for members of Congress if they learned they had voted to increase spending on health care. The level of probable support rose to 76% among blacks and to 70% among people with family incomes under $20,000.

The Times Mirror poll showed that Bush would gain a small but significant increase in support by replacing Vice President Dan Quayle with Gen. Colin L. Powell, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, on the GOP ticket in 1992.

The survey was divided into two random samples of 1,000 people each, with each group asked to assess a different presidential contest. Among one group, Bush and Quayle bested a Democratic ticket of Cuomo and Sen. Bob Kerrey of Nebraska by 74% to 17%. In the other group, a Bush-Powell ticket beat Cuomo and Kerrey 79% to 14%.

Bush already has indicated he intends to keep Quayle as his running mate.

“There’s no reason to doubt that, and the vice president will be a strong part of the ticket,” said Abraham, who was Quayle’s deputy chief of staff until taking over the Congressional Campaign Committee this week.