Germany Is Top Global Exporter, Trade Group Says

A newly unified Germany overtook the United States as the world’s leading exporter in 1990, the world trade body, GATT, said Tuesday.

A 16.5% increase in the mark against the dollar helped raise the value of German merchandise exports to $421 billion, compared to $394 billion for U.S. exports, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade said.

Germany was unified Oct. 3 after 45 years of being divided. All of former East Germany’s exports were included in the 1990 total, adding $22.5 billion to the German figure.

The United States recorded a greater increase in export volume at 8.5% against only 1.5% for Germany. Japan kept third place, with exports rising 4.5% to $286 billion.

The report, from the secretariat of the 101-nation organization, said growth in world trade and output is likely to slow for the third straight year in 1991. But the report said global recession is unlikely despite uncertainties in the aftermath of the Gulf War.

“Although there is no world recession in sight, the outlook for 1991 is clouded by a number of uncertainties, including those stemming from the aftermath of the cease-fire in the gulf,” the report said.

The U.S.-led allied forces stopped shooting Feb. 27 after routing Iraq in a six-week war that left thousands dead and billions of dollars in damages. It also led to a tumultuous political situation in the region.

“Mixed signals make forecasting difficult but lead GATT economists to conclude that a further modest slowdown in the growth of world trade is likely for the year as a whole,” the report said.

The preliminary report, compiled from information available by early March, said worldwide merchandise trade volume rose 5% in 1990 compared to 7% in 1989 and 8.5% in 1988. Trade value rose 13% to a record $3.5 trillion, largely because of a weaker dollar.

Trade in services grew an estimated 12% to $770 billion from $690 billion in 1989, it added.

Economic disruption and uncertainty caused by the Gulf crisis contributed to slower economic growth in 1990 but probably did not play an important role, the report said.

“It had been apparent for some time that business investment in the developed countries was being scaled back and that in several of these countries the growth of consumer expenditure was slowing,” it said.

North America raised the value of its exports 8.5% while imports rose only 3.5%.

The value of Western Europe’s exports, boosted by the effects of a lower dollar, rose almost 20%. Imports climbed 21% in response to strong demand in Germany.

Saudi Arabia recorded the biggest jump in export rankings to 21st place from 25th as earnings rose by nearly 40% to $39 billion, due to sharply higher oil exports and prices for crude oil.

Imports of leading Asian trading nations continued to rise much faster than exports. Japan, for instance, saw imports rise 11.5% while exports gained by only 4.5%.

China’s imports, however, fell in value 8.5% while exports grew 18%, resulting in a shift in its trade balance to an $8-billion surplus in 1990 from a $6.5-billion deficit in 1989.

Depreciation of the dollar against the French franc helped lift France into a tie for third place with Japan among leading importers, both registering totals of $234 billion, the GATT report said.

Central and East European countries fared poorly compared to other regions as they struggled to make the transition from central planning to market-oriented economies. Trade there fell more steeply than in 1989.

The Gulf cease-fire and a drop in oil prices has improved prospects for 1991, the report said.