Business Leaders Expect Economy to Improve : Finances: A bank’s semiannual survey shows hotel operators to be the least optimistic. Half expect things to get worse.

More than half the county’s business leaders expect a slight economic upturn in Ventura County in 1991, according to a survey released Wednesday.

In what is described as guarded optimism, 58% of the respondents to the semiannual Ventura County National Bank Economic Survey said they expect improved sales this year and almost 52% anticipate improved profits.

Furthermore, the vast majority of respondents expect to either maintain or increase the size of their payrolls. Almost 90% said they see no need for layoffs in the coming year.

According to the survey, the county’s major retailers, service companies, energy-related firms, real estate concerns and professionals such as doctors and lawyers are the most optimistic about their prospects.

Hotel operators are the least optimistic, with 50% expecting their business to get worse and only 37.5% looking for an improvement.

Farm operators are divided, with one-fourth expecting increased sales, one-fourth predicting a downturn and half expecting no change at all.

Despite the generally rosy expectations, three-quarters of those taking part in the survey, which was conducted in January and February, answered “yes” to the question, “Are we in a recession?”

“Frankly, that surprised me,” William E. McAleer, the bank’s chairman, said at a news conference Wednesday. “It’s a higher percentage than I would have expected.”

Still, McAleer said, the consensus is that “things are going to get better” in the final nine months of 1991.

“You’re going to see things moving upward. It’s beginning to happen now,” he said.

Noting that some economists are predicting a shallow recession, McAleer said: “It will be interesting to watch our midyear survey for further confirmation.”

However, he stopped short of predicting an end to the recession.

“That depends largely on consumer confidence,” he said. “Consumers are watching Washington and Sacramento to see how our leaders handle such matters as budget deficits and the savings and loan bailout.”

He said 81.6% of those surveyed said they felt that the savings and loan crisis, which has cost taxpayers billions of dollars, has played a major role in the recession.

Confirming that Ventura County has been in a recession, 35% of those responding to the bank’s survey said their sales decreased in 1990. But only 22% expect the decline to continue this year.

And while 21% of the employers surveyed reduced their payrolls in 1990, only 12% expect to do so this year.

The study showed that the county’s hotel industry fared worst of all major groups in 1990, with 71% of hotel operators reporting reduced business.

“Tourism in the county is languishing, and that’s hurting our hotels and restaurants,” McAleer said. “I’m not sure whether the problem is lack of promotion, the recession or what.”

Other Ventura County industries reporting sharp downturns compared to the previous year were real estate, with 57% of respondents reporting sales decreases, and construction, with 49% reporting decreases.

“Home sales seem to be coming back in selected areas,” McAleer said.

McAleer said survey questionnaires were mailed to 5,000 business and professional people throughout the county in mid-January, with 535 responses received by the end of February. He called the 11% response excellent for this type of study.

Among the county’s 10 cities, business people and professionals in Thousand Oaks are the most optimistic, the survey showed, with 67% predicting improved sales this year.

The least optimistic were those in Fillmore, where only 43% of respondents expect an improvement. In all other cities, sales increases of from 52% to 60% were foreseen.