Foes Hope Jail Tax Is Hurt by Economy : Measure J: Reports of new levies to solve the state budget crisis will work against the proposed half-cent raise, opponents say. But supporters see passage.

Opponents of Measure J, the jail tax initiative on the May 14 ballot, say reports that state officials are considering raising taxes statewide to solve a looming budget crisis will help defeat plans to put a jail in Gypsum Canyon.

“We’ll see if people are willing to pay 7 or 8 or 9% in sales taxes before this is all over,” said Rick Violett, chairman of Taxpayers for a Centralized Jail, one of the groups opposing Measure J.

Proponents of Measure J, which would raise the county’s sales tax by half a cent, said they too are concerned about recent disclosures that the state is facing a budget shortfall of $12.6 billion. But they said they remain confident that county voters will want to pay more taxes for a new jail.

Eileen Padberg, a consultant working for the campaign promoting Measure J, said: “In the environment in which we’re campaigning right now, it makes people more hesitant to vote on higher taxes when they’re worried about the future of the economy. We’re going to have to work real hard at that.”

With less than six weeks before the election, the campaigns for and against Measure J remain almost invisible to the general public. There is, however, maneuvering behind closed doors as county officials work to reduce the scale of the proposed Gypsum Canyon jail.

Measure J foes have yet to file a statement of organization with the county registrar of voters, which would allow them to begin raising money for a campaign.

“We have no cash to fight the powers that be,” said jail foe Craig S. Miller of Anaheim Hills.

He said word of mouth and grass-roots efforts to get out the message about Measure J are the only vehicles for foes to counter Measure J proponents.

But Miller said he thinks that the state’s financial woes will be the best weapon against the referendum.

“That’s definitely in our favor,” he said.

“The biggest, stupidest thing they should be doing right now is building a jail on land they don’t own,” he said. The Gypsum Canyon site is owned by the Irvine Co.

The Committee to Keep Criminals in Jail, headed by Sheriff Brad Gates, has so far collected about $100,000 and plans to use it to set up phone banks and direct mailers to target likely voters, including senior citizens, and promote the jail, supporters said.

In the meantime, officials in the County Administrative Office and the Sheriff’s Department have been working during the last few months to revise plans for a Gypsum Canyon jail, with an eye toward lowering building costs while trying to keep it at the planned 6,700 beds.

Jonathan Wolin, a manager in the county’s management and budget office, said representatives of the Sheriff’s Department, the County Administrative Office, the General Services Agency and the Health Care Agency have been meeting at least once a week to go over a 1988 design.

Those plans so far show a 6,700-bed facility that would cost $997.2 million for planning and building.

“We’re looking at a number of different scenarios,” Wolin said. “We might change the number of beds, or we might change how it is organized. It’s too early to tell.

“We don’t have a time line, but our efforts won’t be done before May 14,” he said.

County officials have not decided whether the Measure J funds, if approved by voters, would be used to buy the land from the Irvine Co., for an estimated $55 million.

But while Measure J opponents are counting on the sour economy to help defeat the referendum, Gates has been working to counter criticism that the ballot issue is too vague to attract voter support.

A recent Times Orange County Poll showed that voters for the most part remain confused and divided about Measure J. But when respondents were told that criminals were being allowed to go free because of severe jail overcrowding, and that revenue from Measure J would probably be used to pay for a jail at Gypsum Canyon, support increased dramatically.

Both supporters and opponents said the poll results bolster their arguments. “It shows that the voters don’t want to issue a blank check to government,” said Board of Supervisors Chairman Gaddi H. Vasquez, who has opposed the Gypsum Canyon jail, which would be in his district. “It will be difficult in the sense that everyone right now is talking about higher taxes.”

However, Gates said: “All of the information, as I read it, says there is strong support (for a new jail) among those who are likely to vote and know the issues. But I’m not surprised that there is still a bit confusion.”

Also last week, Supervisor Roger R. Stanton said he would ask for a vote from the supervisors to condemn the land in Gypsum Canyon so the county can buy it from the Irvine Co. to build the jail.

Supervisor Don R. Roth, whose district includes Anaheim, home to some of the most determined jail foes, said there is no point in taking a vote before the May 14 election.

“Why would you want to condemn something when you don’t even have the money to buy it?” he asked. “I say good luck to him,” meaning Stanton.

But Stanton said he wants to end speculation about whether the four votes needed for condemnation exist on the board.

Assemblyman Tom Umberg (D-Garden Grove) has introduced a bill that would allow the Gypsum Canyon property to be condemned with the votes of just three supervisors. But prospects for that bill becoming law are uncertain.

“There are so many steps that have to be taken, and one school of thought says wait until you can do it all at once,” Stanton said.