State Health Officials Revise HIV Infection Projections Downward

State health officials Thursday released new projections of the number of AIDS cases that will occur over the next two years in California. They also conceded that earlier projections of the number of people infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, which causes AIDS, were too high.

By 1993, they project the number of AIDS cases will more than double to 69,000. Most regions of the state can expect a “gradual increase” according to Jim Singleton, research program specialist in the health department’s AIDS office. In Los Angeles County, he said the increase may be slightly slower.

At the end of March, the Centers for Disease Control reported 32,542 AIDS cases in California.

State officials had earlier projected that by the beginning of last year, 300,000 Californians would be infected with HIV. However, those estimates are now being revised downward to 146,000, according to Singleton. He said the earlier projections were based on “simple, crude extrapolation” from nationwide figures from the Centers for Disease Control, that were themselves too high.

The new figures, Singleton said, are based on better data.

Of the 146,000 HIV-infected Californians, 42,000 live in Los Angeles County, or 1 in every 211 residents. About 28,000 reside in San Francisco County, or 1 in every 26 residents. About 15,700 live in San Diego County, or 1 in every 159 residents. About 60,000 live throughout the rest of the state, or 1 in every 294 residents.