LOCAL ELECTIONS / MEASURE J : Absentee Ballots Expected to Favor Jail Tax

An estimated 18% to 22% of the county’s registered voters are expected to turn out at the polls next Tuesday to decide whether to raise the sales tax by half a cent to build and operate new regional justice facilities, election officials said Monday.

Absentee balloting is expected to be strong, a factor that is most likely to favor proponents of Measure J, led by Sheriff Brad Gates, who have spent large amounts of funds on an absentee ballot campaign.

At the same time that voters countywide decide on the jail tax initiative, voters in the 35th State Senate District will pick a replacement for former State Sen. John Seymour, who was appointed to the U.S. Senate. Assemblyman John R. Lewis (R-Orange) is vying for the seat along with Francis X. Hoffman, a Democrat, and Eric Sprik, a Libertarian, in a runoff election.

“This (election turnout) was a little hard to predict because there are such different issues involved,” said Rosalyn Lever, assistant registrar of voters.

So far, 74,404 absentee ballots have been sent out for Tuesday’s election, Lever said. Today is the last day to request an absentee ballot from the registrar of voter’s office.

There are 1.05 million registered voters in the county, including 312,951 in the 35th State Senate District.

In the last countywide election on Nov. 6--when Measure M, the half-cent sales tax for transportation improvements, was on the ballot--voter turnout was 56.6%. Of the more than 600,000 ballots cast, just over 50,000 people voted by absentee ballot.

In contrast, the March 19 special primary election for the 35th State Senate District drew only 14.4% of the registered voters, and 21,749 absentee ballots were cast, Lever said.

Eileen E. Padberg, a consultant working with the pro-Measure J group, was pleased to hear how many absentee ballots have been sent out.

“It bodes well for us,” she said, adding that her campaign has sent pro-Measure J literature and applications for absentee ballots to 85,000 county residents who had voted in the last three elections.

Typically, those voters tend to be older and more likely to support law-and-order measures, Padberg said.

“I feel good that we communicated with the right people and we have an excellent chance of winning,” she said.

She also noted that a lower voter turnout is more likely to help Measure J pass.

Bob Zemel, chairman of Taxpayers Against J, which opposes the jail tax measure, said he believes the registrar of voters is being “optimistic” about the turnout. He and other opponents of Measure J say that because the 35th State Senate District includes most of the city of Anaheim--where opposition to building a jail in nearby Gypsum Canyon is the strongest--a large number of those who don’t want the jail are more likely to go to the polls.

The 35th District also includes most of the cities of Orange and Costa Mesa as well as parts of Irvine, Fountain Valley and Westminster.

Zemel, however, conceded that a strong vote by absentee ballot will probably be to the advantage of those backing Measure J.

Financial reports filed last week showed that Taxpayers Against J, which was formed just two weeks ago, had raised $11,045, while the Committee to Keep Criminals in Jail, Gates’ pro-Measure J group, reported having raised $163,160.

“We haven’t had the time to do absentee voting,” Zemel said. “Ours is a 21-day fight. We have no time, we have no money. We’ve had to do everything with grass-roots help. We’re definitely the underdog here, but we’re the right dog.”

If approved, Measure J would raise the sales tax by half a cent for 30 years and is expected to raise an average of $343 million annually. The Board of Supervisors has said its No. 1 funding priority with Measure J revenues is construction of a 6,720-bed jail in Gypsum Canyon to ease jail overcrowding.

Besides Gates and Dist. Atty. Michael R. Capizzi, Measure J has been endorsed by law enforcement groups, including police associations throughout the county, and the Orange County chapter of Mothers Against Drunk Driving.

The Orange County Bar Assn., on the other hand, recently voted to oppose the measure.

On Monday, the 1990-91 Orange County Grand Jury added its name to the list of those endorsing Measure J.

Jury foreman Grant Baldwin said that the grand jury has been asking the Board of Supervisors to come up with a solution to the jail overcrowding problem.

“People who are close to the criminal justice system in this county, the judges and the district attorney’s office and others . . . are of the same mind,” he said. “They see this need (for more jail space) as being a serious, serious problem and one that has to be solved.

Anaheim Mayor Fred Hunter, one of the leaders of the anti-Measure J forces, said Monday that his group would hold a press conference later this week with the mayors of eight Orange County cities that oppose the measure.

On Wednesday, Hunter will take part in a debate on Measure J along with Howard Hull, a member of the Sheriff’s Advisory Council, a group of business and civic leaders who provide support for Gates’ department.

The debate is scheduled for 1 p.m. at the Saddleback Inn in Santa Ana and is being sponsored by the Rotary Club of Santa Ana North.