U.S. Troops Likely to Linger in Gulf as Pressure for a Pullout Eases : Mideast: Officials now concede they have no idea when the last Americans might come home.

The once-intense pressure for an early and total withdrawal of U.S. troops from the Persian Gulf has eased significantly in recent weeks, increasing the probability that American forces will become long-term fixtures of the area’s security system, according to Bush Administration and congressional officials.

Like so much of the unplanned aftermath of the carefully scripted Operation Desert Storm, the extended U.S. troop presence seems to be the result of external factors--especially Iraq’s crackdown on its Kurdish minority--that initially were overlooked or underestimated by American strategists.

Iraqi troops so far have avoided confrontations with U.S. soldiers, and gradual progress continues to be made in resettling refugees, easing the fears of perilous entanglements that once fueled the strong political and public demand for an early troop pullback.

As a result, officials acknowledge that they have no idea when the last American servicemen and women, now numbering about 87,000 in the region, will be allowed to come home. One official said U.S. troops will remain at least until September.

Gen. Colin L. Powell, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Thursday that the Kurdish relief operation may end “sooner than we may have thought earlier.” But he added quickly: “We are in no hurry. There is no haste.”

Powell, who talked to reporters at Sirsank, a town in the Kurdish security zone established by the U.S.-led allies in northern Iraq, seemed to base his prediction of an early withdrawal on the assumption that Iraq will do nothing to interfere with relief operations. He warned that the United States and its allies are ready to use any means necessary to prevent President Saddam Hussein from renewing his crackdown on the Kurds.

Although the extended stay of U.S. forces in the Gulf has come with little loss of American lives and has quelled the vast bloodshed of the war’s immediate aftermath, it raises serious risks of complacency and the kind of open-ended and dangerous role the United States was intent on avoiding, according to some U.S. officials and experts.

Already, in neighboring Kuwait, other Arab coalition forces are withdrawing from long-term roles they were supposed to assume, leaving an awkward vacuum and potentially larger responsibilities for the U.S.forces remaining.

Even so, the gradual stretching-out of the U.S. presence in the Gulf has stirred little notice on Capitol Hill, where warnings and criticism once were frequent and strident. And there appears to be little public clamor against a lengthened timetable.

A senior State Department official said sentiment for a quick pullout began to fade, both within the Administration and in Congress, with the first televised images of Iraq’s brutal attacks on Kurdish refugees.

Only about 11,500 of the remaining U.S. personnel in the region are engaged in the Kurdish relief effort. But once the plight of the Kurds undermined demands for total and complete withdrawal, it became easier to leave forces in other parts of the region as well.

Iraq’s passive response to U.S. security demands and refugee operations has diminished fears that American troops will get caught in the cross-fire of that nation’s internal turmoil. And several weeks of relatively uneventful expansion of refugee services has also quieted critics.

In addition to the forces involved in the Kurdish relief effort in northern Iraq and across the border in Turkey, about 76,000 American troops--down from a wartime high of more than 500,000--are in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the region of Iraq near the Kuwaiti border.

Shortly after combat ended in late February, U.S. military planners set an unofficial objective of returning all Desert Storm troops by July 4. “We’re still trying to get it down to a pretty slim number by July 4,” a senior defense official said Thursday.

The official acknowledged, however, that several thousand troops will remain after that date in the Kuwait area. “Some will still be there in September, if not later,” he said.

In northern Iraq and Turkey, the American commitment to the Kurdish relief effort is open-ended, officials said.

“Up north, we don’t know at all” how long U.S. troops will be stationed, a Pentagon official said.

The troops in Kuwait are involved in two major efforts: cleaning, packing and loading up the tons of gear shipped in for the war and providing relief and reconstruction aid in the emirate.

Many of the remaining troops are reservists because the military assigns these noncombat jobs primarily to members of the reserve and National Guard. The extended tours of these part-time soldiers has sparked concern and resentment among their families.

Nevertheless, with the American public distracted by victory celebrations, it has been relatively easy to overlook the forces still in the Gulf. Moreover, Kuwait has made clear that it wants U.S. troops to remain for some time. And Saudi Arabia has made only perfunctory suggestions that foreign troops should withdraw.

“There is no way out of the conclusion that there will be a U.S. presence for the foreseeable future,” said Geoffrey Kemp, a Middle East expert who was on the National Security Council staff during the Reagan Administration.

Kemp predicted that the United States will be welcome at least until a clearer picture emerges of what Iraq plans to do next.

“Everyone will hedge their bets and want U.S. forces on the ground,” said Kemp, now a fellow of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The quid pro quo for a quick pullout may be increased U.S. arms sales (to the Gulf states). That will run up against sentiment in Congress for an embargo on arms sales.”

At one time, the United States envisioned an Arab security force to protect the region. Egypt and Syria would supply the personnel, and Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other Gulf states would supply the money.

But the Gulf Arabs scuttled that plan shortly after the agreement was signed. According to a senior U.S. official, the Gulf states were nervous about turning their security over to Egypt and Syria.

Instead, the official said, the Gulf states want to rely on an increased American presence while building up their own forces with massive arms purchases, presumably from the United States.

Times staff writer John M. Broder contributed to this report.