Who’ll Rule Late Night After Carson? : Television: Longtime ‘Tonight Show’ host’s departure next May will leave ratings crown up for grabs. Youth audience is seen as key.

In the wake of Johnny Carson’s announcement that he intends to step down as host of “The Tonight Show” next May, after nearly 30 years as the reigning king of late-night television, nobody in the TV industry seems to know what kind of opportunities will be created--not even NBC.

Despite the success of longtime Carson stand-in Jay Leno, the network hasn’t yet named a replacement host.

“It’s the passing of an era,” observed Rod Perth, CBS’ vice president of late-night programming. “And with any change in the sort of dominance that Carson had over the years, there’s bound to be a sort of backwash of uncertainty. And I think this is especially true for NBC, because they have yet to name his successor. This is a choice they’re going to have to live with for a long time, and their affiliates are really breathing down their neck to keep the franchise alive.”

Perth expressed puzzlement over NBC’s failure to name a successor immediately. Not so his counterpart at ABC, Phil Beuth.

“Why should NBC have to announce a replacement for Carson?” he said. “Why muddy the waters? They’ve got Jay standing in the wings. Are they going to shut him out? I doubt it. Believe me, if they have another replacement for Carson, they would be trying him out now. Jay has tested out very well in every category.”

Beuth said the only other option to replace Carson is David Letterman. He called “Tonight” and “Late Night With David Letterman” the only two real franchises in late-night television.

“I don’t know how NBC can possibly make a judgment or take a chance on somebody else,” Beuth said, “because it’s so risky. There’s not many Steve Allens, Jack Paars or Johnny Carsons available.”

Most sources point to Leno as the obvious candidate, and his popularity bears out in his ratings. On the nights Leno filled in for Carson over the past six months, he averaged a 5 rating and 16 share, virtually identical to the show’s overall numbers during that period. (Each rating point represents 931,000 homes.)

“I think Jay Leno has been Johnny Carson’s insurance policy for some time,” Beuth said. “He brings a young audience and an ethnic audience. Carson’s audience is vanilla-white. With Leno as a replacement, I can see why NBC and Carson agreed to end a great era.”

Rick Ludwin, senior vice president of NBC late-night entertainment, knows that all eyes are on his network, but he said this week that there are no immediate plans to name a successor to Carson.

“We’re happily dealing with things from a position where we’re the incumbent, and that’s a tremendous advantage,” he said. “We are No. 1 in late-night, and we feel we’ve got the bench strength to continue to be No. 1.”

Instead of licking their chops over the possibility of increased audience shares, Carson’s competitors appear to be digging in their heels for a long tug-of-war for late-night viewers. Carson’s exit comes at a time when network programmers and syndicated program suppliers, in the midst of an economic crunch, are pouncing on the late-night arena as an unexploited market for revenue.

“There’s no question, it’s no secret late-night is widely viewed as an underdeveloped time period,” Ludwin said. “Not only is every network, but every syndicator is developing product for that time period. I’m sure they see the kind of money ‘The Arsenio Hall Show’ is making and they want to get a piece of it.”

Two new late-night entries already are in the wings. NBC will enter into late-night competition with itself this month when NBC Productions syndicates “Johnny B. . . . on the Loose,” starring Chicago deejay Jonathon Brandmeier. (The show will air in Los Angeles at 7:30 p.m. starting June 24 on KCOP Channel 13.) And in January, Dennis Miller, longtime “Weekend Update” anchor on “Saturday Night Live, will host a show for Tribune Entertainment.

“There are lots of viewers out there. ‘Arsenio’ brought in an audience that wasn’t even watching late-night television, because he didn’t affect the late-night ratings that much,” said Brad Grey, executive producer of “The Dennis Miller Show.” “What we’re hoping is there’s an audience out there for Dennis Miller. Remember, these shows are all personality driven.”

The biggest battle in late-night television seems to be over the youth audience, another reason why sources say Leno is the likely candidate to succeed the older-skewing Carson. The networks are targeting younger and younger viewers late at night, a time when advertisers go bargain hunting. For the same $250,000 cost of a 30-second prime-time spot, an advertiser can purchase 10 30-second spots on late-night.

In search of youth, ABC has opted to slug it out another season with the floundering “Into the Night With Rick Dees,” featuring the crazy antics and frenetic interviews of the Los Angeles deejay, rather than find a late-night news and information program to follow its successful “Nightline” with Ted Koppel.

“We go from Koppel to Clearasil,” Beuth said. “That’s one of our biggest challenges. The reason that we do not simply extend a Koppel-type show, which people say is the natural thing to do, we are interested in serving a younger, newer, different portion of the audience. Because ABC doesn’t have those young people any place where advertisers can reach them (with frequency), and we think they’re important to our future.”

Some say that Dees’ demise is inevitable, much as late-night host Pat Sajack’s was last year on CBS. But Beuth said that ABC is banking on Dees, and there are no replacements in the works.

“I am praying that Dees catches fire this summer,” Beuth said. “We have put a lot of time and money and research into him, and we are fully behind him. If Jay Leno takes over, it will cut somewhat into our younger demos, and I’m sure NBC is counting on that. So we have a year to build some loyalty.”

CBS has avoided host headaches altogether this year. In April, the network installed “Crime Time After Prime Time,” five weekly, one-hour dramatic series to counter-program the glut of late-night talk shows. In its first four weeks, “Crime Time” averaged a 2.8 rating and 10 share, up 33% from where CBS was the year before.

“Among adults 18-49, we’re up 45% from last year, and that is the real measure of our success, because that’s what sells advertising spots,” Perth said.

CBS picked up three “Crime Time” series for a second season--”Sweating Bullets” on Monday night, “Scene of the Crime” on Wednesday and “Dark Justice” on Friday--and might even try one of them out in CBS’ prime-time schedule. Five more “Crime-Time” series are in development as replacements.

The problem that both CBS and ABC face is convincing their affiliates to air their late-night programming. Some affiliate stations chose to pass on the networks’ late-night programs to run inexpensive syndicated reruns. Others broadcast the network fare, but in the early hours of the morning when viewership is minimal.

“We have to struggle to get clearance with our affiliates, which is most of the battle,” ABC’s Beuth said. “Content is important in late-night, but clearance is essential.”

“Tonight” has 100% clearance on NBC stations, compared to 87% clearance for “Crime Time” on CBS stations, and a mere 44% for “Rick Dees” on ABC stations.

Beuth, who is giving away more than half of the network’s advertising spots to attract advertisers, said: “I would dare say Carson would not be a hit with 44% clearance.”

The challenge for NBC now is to find a way to hang on to those affiliates. “There’s no question there is going to be greater competition,” NBC’s Ludwin said, “and there’s going to be a lot of fallout. Not all these late-night shows are going to survive. There’s only so much audience to go around.”