As Simple as Counting 1, 2, 3
In nothing is the power of numbers more evident than the census. The new Post Enumeration Survey (PES), based on a sampling survey and adjusted to correct for an undercount of people believed to have been missed in 1990, shows that California was undercounted by more than an incredible 1.1 million.
In representative government, more people should mean added state clout in the House of Representatives, as well as a greater share of federal revenues. It all sounds obvious, except to the Commerce Department.
The department is reviewing whether to use the new survey information to adjust for the undercount. Commerce Secretary Robert A. Mosbacher has until July 15 to decide whether the census figures should be adjusted. But what’s the quandary? A top census official readily admits that “it’s fair to say we missed people.” Then why must the department hesitate in adjusting the undercount?
One doesn’t have to look hard to find the answer. If the new figures are used to calculate congressional seats, California and Arizona would each gain a seat in the House; Pennsylvania and Wisconsin would lose one each. Those states are gearing up to fight the new count. Some say an adjusted census could be less accurate than the original.
How so? The grossest example of miscalculation was in L.A. County; Inglewood, with a population of about 110,000, had a 10.9% undercount, the highest in the nation. An undercount of 6.5% was recorded in Riverside County’s Moreno Valley, and the figures for Los Angeles and Santa Ana were 5% each.
Census experts have admitted that areas with large minority populations--and California is the most racially diverse state in the nation--traditionally get shortchanged in the census count. Rep. Thomas C. Sawyer (D-Ohio), chairman of a House census subcommittee, is right when he says that “the PES may not be the most accurate count, but it’s clear that the raw numbers are dead wrong.” Secretary Mosbacher would be hard-pressed to prove why, on scientific grounds, the census numbers should not be adjusted.
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