COLOMBIA : All Eyes in Drug War Now Turn to Courts : But even with Pablo Escobar behind bars, few expect the flow of cocaine to dry up.

The surrender of Pablo Escobar, the billionaire king of coke, has suddenly changed the nature of Colombia’s drug war from an anti-terrorist campaign to a battle in the courts.

But few believe it will put an immediate crimp in the flow of cocaine from this top-producer nation to the United States and Europe.

Colombian and U.S. officials say this is because Bogota’s “drug war” was never primarily a war against drugs, but a war against violence.

In seven bloody years that traumatized the nation, the government focused on half a dozen Medellin traffickers led by Escobar, who first tried to buy political power and, when that failed, waged a paramilitary assault on the state.

Wednesday night, after Escobar had become the last of the most-wanted Medellin bosses brought to heel, a relieved-looking President Cesar Gaviria told the nation: “I hope this is the end of narco-terrorism.”

But, noting that other traffickers have filled the gap, he warned that Colombia’s success against cocaine production now depends on greater efforts by rich nations to control their appetite for the illegal drug.

In effect, Gaviria wondered aloud whether the drug war is still a top priority for Washington, as President Bush told the leaders of Bolivia, Colombia and Peru at a February, 1990, summit.

If so, Gaviria said, “we expect the United States to fulfill its (summit) promise of special trade concessions” to compensate Colombia “for the extremely high price it has paid in the struggle against narcotrafico. “

BACKGROUND: The price that Colombia has paid in drug-related terrorism has been astronomical--the assassinations of a justice minister, an attorney general, three presidential candidates, hundreds of police officers and judges, plus $2 billion a year in economic damages and law enforcement spending.

In 1990, according to Interpol, 420 police officers died in anti-drug operations in Colombia, more than the total killed in such actions in the rest of the world.

The police effort was rewarded with the seizure of 99,000 pounds of cocaine last year, an all-time high that has already been matched in the first half of 1991.

The dogged pursuit of Escobar & Co. so diminished drug operations in the Medellin valley that a senior Colombian official called Escobar’s surrender “the final blow in dismantling the Medellin Cartel as a cartel.”

TREND: To the frustration of U.S. and Colombian law enforcement officials, however, the bigger drug seizures are merely an indication that cocaine production is rising. They estimate it to be 20% to 30% higher than in mid-1989, when the most intense crackdown began.

Much of Medellin’s production--once 75% of the Colombian total--has dispersed to dozens of rival trafficking organizations throughout the country, notably a businesslike group based in the city of Cali that avoids confronting the police.

Some specialists believe this dispersion of the drug trade will make it easier now for Colombia to ignore the traffickers, as it did before Escobar’s terrorist challenge.

But a senior Colombian official disagreed, saying the new situation is easier to combat because the traffickers are not concentrating their resources.

KEY ISSUES: The vigor and morale of the police campaign against drugs is certain to be affected by the punishment meted out to Escobar and his jailed Medellin associates, the Ochoa brothers. And since taking office last August, Gaviria has made it clear that the drug war will be won or lost in the courts.

To that end, he devised a special system of “faceless judges” shielded from the threats and bribes that have crippled regular courts. Then he offered cocaine traffickers greatly reduced sentences and a guarantee against extradition if they surrendered, confessed to their crimes and forfeited ill-gotten gains.

Until now, the Ochoas--Jorge Luis, Juan David and Fabio--were the most prominent of 10 traffickers to accept the offer. Escobar, facing eight criminal indictments in the United States, surrendered only after a Constituent Assembly rewriting Colombia’s constitution voted Wednesday to outlaw extradition.

U.S. officials had opposed the extradition ban but welcomed Escobar’s imprisonment. “We want to see him brought to justice, and if he is brought to justice in Colombia . . . we would welcome that,” White House spokesman Marlin Fitzwater said.

In Colombia, Gaviria’s policy has been so controversial that what might seem to be its crowning achievement was viewed in sharply opposing ways. El Colombiano, Medellin’s leading newspaper, printed a headline calling Escobar’s surrender “A Step Toward Peace.” But the Page 1 banner in El Espectador, a hawkish Bogota paper, read: “Terror Wins.”

Opinion is polarized in part because of suspicions here that Escobar and the Ochoas will get light sentences, pass most of their illicit fortunes to associates rather than to the state and even run their cocaine businesses behind bars.

“Pablo Escobar has done his duty,” said Antonio Galan, brother of a slain presidential candidate. “Now let’s see if the judges can do theirs.”

OUTLOOK: The court battles could take months, even years.

In one skirmish, the “faceless judges” system, attacked by civil libertarians for shrouding trials in secrecy, was written out of the new constitution last week.

Gaviria’s aides say they will try to extend it through “transitional legislation” after the current constitution expires July 5, but perhaps only for a few months. How the trials of drug lords would proceed after that is unclear.

Colombian officials say they have little evidence against the Ochoas. It is not known what crimes they have confessed to, but a U.S. official here said the brothers “could easily end up with two years or less.”

Escobar, with harder evidence against him on a string of murder and smuggling charges, is likely to get Colombia’s maximum 30-year sentence, which could then be reduced to 15 under the government offer.

But legal experts disagree whether he could get additional time off for good behavior or productive work in prison. Some say Escobar could serve as little as eight years.

“For these guys to get a few years in jail and come out with billions that qualify them for the Forbes 500 (would say) ‘Crime pays,’ ” said John Kerry, the Massachusetts Democrat who chairs the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee on terrorism, narcotics and international operations. “It would have a horrendous impact on risk-taking by law enforcement people.”

Critics of the government’s policy, including Colombia’s own police chief, have charged that the Ochoas, who did not turn over their fleet of airplanes, continue to run smuggling operations from jail. Government officials dispute this. But one police official said the brothers held a prison party one night in April to celebrate the landing of a 14-ton cocaine shipment in Spain.

Even if jail puts a damper on the Medellin operations, some Colombians wonder whether the nightmare of drug violence is really over.

“One person who headed a band of narco-traffickers has turned himself in,” said Carlos Lemos Simmonds, a member of the Constituent Assembly. “But others are out there, possibly one who aspires to the throne vacated by Pablo Escobar.”

Times staff writers Doug Frantz, William R. Long and Ronald J. Ostrow contributed to this report, as did special correspondent Stan Yarbro. Frantz and Ostrow reported from Washington; Long, who is based in Santiago, Chile, reported recently from Bogota. Yarbro reported from Medellin.

Key Events in the Drug War

Here are some of the major events in Colombia’s drug war: Aug. 18, 1989: Presidential candidate Luis Carlos Galan is slain by gunmen believed hired by drug traffickers. President Virgilio Barco Vargas orders extradition of drug suspects to the United States. Aug. 24, 1989: Drug barons--the “Extraditables”--declare war on the government. Colombian cities are hit by bombings. Dec. 15, 1989: Colombian police kill Jose Gonzalo Rodriguez Gacha, No. 3 in the Medellin Cartel. Jan. 17, 1990: Drug barons offer to stop terrorism, surrender labs in exchange for not being extradited. Government refuses to negotiate, but there is an uneasy two-month truce. March 22, 1990: Bernardo Jaramillo, another presidential candidate, is slain. April 11, 1990: New attacks start with bombing of police truck near Medellin. In three months, more than 200 police officers are killed. April 26, 1990: Gunman kills a third presidential candidate, Carlos Pizarro. May 27, 1990: Liberal Party candidate Cesar Gaviria, left, wins presidency. July 27, 1990: Drug lords announce unilateral truce. Aug. 30, 1990: Six journalists are kidnaped by drug traffickers. Sept. 5, 1990: Gaviria offers immunity from extradition and shorter jail terms for traffickers who surrender. Sept. 19, 1990: Drug traffickers kidnap two more journalists. Nov.-Dec., 1990: Four of the kidnaped journalists are released, one by one. Dec. 18, 1990: Fabio Ochoa, alleged leader of Medellin Cartel, surrenders. Jan. 15, 1991: Jorge Luis Ochoa, No. 2 in the cartel and Fabio’s brother, surrenders. Feb. 16, 1991: A third Ochoa brother and accused drug lord, Juan David Ochoa, surrenders. April 30, 1991: Gunman kills former Justice Minister Enrique Low Murtra. May 30, 1991: Drug kingpin Pablo Escobar, right, says in a communique that he hopes to surrender. June 19, 1991: Escobar surrenders to authorities in Medellin, is flown to jail. June 20, 1991: Valentin Jesus Taborda, suspected financial chief of the Medellin Cartel, surrenders.