The Road to Recovery : Survey Finds Some Industries Rolling Along but Others Are Stalled : COMPUTERS

The computer industry has a funny sense of timing. It held up held up surprisingly well through the early stages of the recession and the Gulf War, when the rest of the economy was going down the tubes.

But now, with hopes of recovery in the air, it has plunged into a slump. Still, there are a few bright spots. Low-priced personal computer vendors, such as AST and Dell Computer, and work-station manufacturers, such as Sun Microsystems, are showing strong growth. Tandy Electronics, the huge electronics retailer and manufacturer, reports some recent signs of a sales pick-up.

But most firms face severe pressure, as U.S. buyers restrain capital spending and overseas markets cool off.

“I don’t think we’ll see any recovery until after Labor Day,” said Richard Shaffer, principal of Technologic Partners in New York. “What excites this industry is new products, and I don’t see many exciting new products.”

An economic recovery will not solve certain problems peculiar to the industry. To the dismay of such big companies as International Business Machines, Digital Equipment and Unisys, for instance, large mainframe and minicomputer systems are being displaced by networks of desktop machines.

Personal computer vendors such as Compaq and Apple, along with major computer retailing chains like Businessland and Computerland, are victims of a different phenomenon: a brutal price war in response to bargain-hungry consumers.

“This whole industry has essentially leveled off, and there’s nothing that suggests to us any kind of recovery in the near term,” said Apple Vice President and Treasurer Robert Saltmarsh.

But the industry could get a lift next year from a raft of new high-powered workstations and the emergence of pen--rather than keyboard--based computers.