Oppression One Way, Ostracism the Other : Croatia: The feared ‘Lebanization’ will happen only if the West turns its back.

Last Friday, Secretary of State James A. Baker III sent a message to the presidents of Yugoslavia’s six fractious republics, warning them that the United States would not recognize the secession-minded republics’ independence if they left the federation unilaterally. His fear, he said, was that the breakup could have “very tragic consequences” for the country and Europe.

What this means, then, is that the United states supports “a peaceful transition to democracy,” only until democracy opposes unity. This contradiction is conveniently glossed over by labeling the republics’ aspirations for self-determination “nationalism.”

The European Community has demonstrated equal zeal in pressuring the republics to stay together, threatening to cut off economic credits and trade.

Stripped of all diplomatic doubletalk, the West is asking Yugoslavia’s democrats to deal with a Serbian hard-line Communist leader, Slobodan Milosevic, who makes a mockery of the democratic process.

Despite considerable restraint on the part of the republics’ leadership, ordinary citizens feel betrayed by a West that seems to see their pursuit of freedom as an unwanted inconvenience. The combination of military threats from Belgrade, a collapsing economy and diplomatic and economic isolation by the West is creating the very siege mentality that the West purportedly says it wants to prevent. For the republics, the choice is between oppression in Yugoslavia or ostracism outside it.

The West must stop fearing democracy and offer the Yugoslav democrats material and technical support. This, more than anything, will keep Yugoslavia from becoming another Lebanon.