Regional Outlook : Latin America’s Fallen Climb Back Onto Power Scene : * A motley roster of past presidents still keep a hand in present politics, thanks to a wave of ‘80s democracy.

Alfonsin of Argentina. Pinochet of Chile. Sarney of Brazil. Garcia of Peru. Ortega of Nicaragua.

Once in the hub of power, now on the rim, a motley roster of former presidents are keeping an active hand in the politics of Latin America.

Raul Alfonsin is one of Argentina’s most influential opposition leaders. Jose Sarney is a senator who commands a voting bloc in Brazil’s Congress. Alan Garcia is said to be jockeying for another presidential race in Peru.

Gen. Augusto Pinochet is still commander of the Chilean army, a powerful position for protecting military interests in the country’s reborn democracy. Daniel Ortega’s brother is commander of the Nicaraguan army, augmenting the former revolutionary president’s considerable power as head of the Sandinista party.

Elsewhere in Latin America, former presidents are key political operators, respected elder statesmen, would-be candidates for a comeback. Some give incumbent presidents headaches, some give them support.

A wave of democracy that swept over Latin America during the 1980s has meant that most former presidents not only can stay on in their countries after losing office but can also, if they choose, continue to play important political roles.

Clearly, as democracy has taken root, former presidents have come to enjoy greater freedom, influence and future prospects than was often true in the undemocratic past of many Latin American countries.

There are notable exceptions, of course: Stroessner of Paraguay and Noriega of Panama.

Gen. Alfredo Stroessner, who ruled Paraguay from 1954 to 1989, has been in exile in neighboring Brazil since losing power in a coup. In poor health at 78, he lives in the quiet isolation of a high-walled home in Brasilia.

Persistent press reports say Stroessner spends his mornings watching cartoons and Xuxa, a Brazilian woman who hosts a daily TV show for children.

The ex-dictator’s longtime domain is now governed by elected President Andres Rodriguez--once Stroessner’s most trusted military supporter--who led the 1989 coup against him.

Another former dictator, Gen. Manuel A. Noriega, is in jail in Miami on drug-trafficking charges. Noriega lost power when the United States invaded Panama in 1989 and put Guillermo Endara in the presidency.

According to unconfirmed rumors in Panama, some of Noriega’s former supporters are forming a guerrilla movement called M-20. The name supposedly is taken from the date of the U.S. invasion, Dec. 20. But members of the Democratic Revolutionary Party, which supported Noriega when he was in power, are backing Endara on some issues in the National Assembly.

The forced departures of Stroessner and Noriega represent old ways in Latin America. Coups and U.S. intervention historically played decisive roles in many of the region’s countries, and the sequel to power often was exile. Now, with few exceptions, the old custom of exile for ex-leaders seems to be extinct.

Here is a look at what some former Latin American presidents are up to, and what future role they may play in the politics of their countries:

ARGENTINA

Raul Alfonsin stepped down five months before his presidential term expired in 1989. The elected hero of Argentina’s return to democracy in 1983, he left office in near-disgrace as the country agonized in a crisis of economic stagnation and hyperinflation.

Today, at 64, Alfonsin is the energetic chairman of the fractious Radical Civic Union, the main opposition party, and a leading critic of incumbent President Carlos Saul Menem. Alfonsin writes a weekly magazine column and frequently makes headlines in the daily press.

“Alfonsin Criticized the Current Argentine Foreign Policy,” one recent headline said. “Alfonsin: ‘The Government Is Very Bad, but Legitimate,’ ” said another.

Menem’s Peronist party is deeply divided over his free-market policies, and despite progress in controlling inflation, the country’s economic slump persists. Obviously, Alfonsin wants his party to take advantage of such Peronist problems when presidential elections roll around in 1995.

Some analysts say that if Alfonsin can regain credibility lost in his first term, he could be the Radical party’s candidate.

“He is now beginning to seek a new role, a role of moderation, of the indispensable figure for national unity,” political scientist Andres Fontana said.

CHILE

One of Gen. Augusto Pinochet’s legacies as president from 1974 to 1990 was a constitution that keeps him on as commander of the army. Although the military is constitutionally barred from participating in politics, few Chileans doubt that Pinochet’s army is a powerful political force that imposes certain limits on the elected government of President Patricio Aylwin.

Aylwin has been careful not to venture too far in such delicate areas as reductions in the military budget and seeking justice for military officers accused of human rights violations.

Analysts say that such acquiescence by the civilian administration is the price it pays to Pinochet for allowing the democratic transition.

After a presidential commission issued a report in March detailing deaths and disappearances under Pinochet’s regime, the general made a defiant speech that was transmitted to the army’s barracks. He said the army “sees no reason to say sorry.”

Aylwin’s administration has said that it wants to leave the controversy behind in the interest of national reconciliation.

Sociologist Jose Joaquin Brunner said Pinochet is “perfectly aware of his political role,” and the other generals seem to be in agreement with him.

Few analysts foresee any danger of a new coup by Pinochet. He appears satisfied with his place in history as the general who disciplined Chile, then returned it to democracy. But under the constitution, he could keep the top army job until 1997.

BOLIVIA

By his own choice, two-time former President Victor Paz Estenssoro retired from politics when he left power in 1989. Paz, 84, is still the nominal chief of his National Revolutionary Movement, but he spends his time in seclusion on his Hacienda San Luis near the provincial capital of Tarija.

Another former Bolivian president, however, shares power in the current administration and is the leading candidate for 1993 presidential elections. Retired Gen. Hugo Banzer Suarez, who headed a military government from 1971 to 1978, is an example of how not only a country but a leader can switch from dictatorship to democracy.

Banzer finished second in 1989 presidential elections, then threw his support to third-place candidate Jaime Paz Zamora in a congressional runoff vote. In return, left-leaning President Paz Zamora has given Banzer’s right-wing party an important share of power in his Cabinet and has hewed to conservative, free-market economic policies.

Like most Latin American constitutions, Bolivia’s bars presidents from seeking a second successive term.

That could favor Banzer in the future. Paz Zamora, when asked the other day if he would back Banzer for president in 1993, responded: “If he runs, of course.”

No one doubts that Banzer plans to run.

PERU

Former President Alan Garcia, 41, is expected to run for the Peruvian presidency again in 1995. “Peruvian political life revolves around the eventual candidacy of Garcia,” commented Enrique Zileri, editor of the Lima-based newsmagazine Caretas.

Garcia left office last year under a cloud. The country’s economy was a shambles, and he had been unsuccessfully impeached. He still spends much of his energy defending his former administration from charges of corruption.

But as other political alliances have fractured, Garcia’s American Popular Revolutionary Alliance has recovered its status as the strongest unified political force in the country, and he is still the party’s most charismatic leader.

Former presidents have lifetime seats in the Senate, but Garcia rarely participates in its sessions. And he has refrained from public criticism of incumbent President Alberto Fujimori, who is under fire from other quarters for his painful economic austerity policies.

If the policies undermine popular support for Fujimori’s new and badly divided party, and if time improves Garcia’s tarnished image, the former president could be the man to beat in 1995.

BRAZIL

Like Alfonsin in Argentina and Garcia in Peru, Jose Sarney left office discredited by economic failures. In March, 1990, when Sarney passed the presidential sash to Fernando Collor de Mello, the monthly inflation rate was 80%.

It was a sorry end for Sarney’s transitional administration, the civilian bridge between a 21-year military regime and the new elected government. No one thought Sarney had a political future.

But in October, he won election to the national Senate from the new state of Amapa, and his son and daughter won seats in the national Chamber of Deputies from the Sarney family’s home state of Maranhao.

Sarney, 61, is now the leader of a congressional bloc with an estimated strength of at least 30 votes. There are currently 559 seats in the bicameral congress, divided among 11 parties.

A major element in President Collor’s successful election campaign was his harsh criticism of Sarney. But after a year in power, having a hard time himself with Brazil’s economic problems and worried about his waning political support, Collor sought Sarney’s support. After a cordial meeting, Sarney was noncommittal but statesmanlike. “The national problems are more important than the differences we once had,” the former president said.

When Collor later changed his economic team, the appointments of several former Sarney officials were interpreted by some as vindication of the ex-president. Others saw it as evidence of a political trade-off.

Sarney seems happy in his elder statesman-power broker role and says he has no presidential ambitions.

VENEZUELA

One former Latin American president who has already made a comeback is Venezuela’s Carlos Andres Perez. He won election by a wide margin in 1988, nine years after leaving office under accusations of misspending the country’s oil wealth.

The onetime big spender has been a tightwad in his second administration, insisting on government austerity to hold down inflation and retool the economy. Many members of his center-left Democratic Action party don’t like the policy.

Under democracy since the late 1950s, Venezuela has three other living former presidents. The most prominent of them is Rafael Caldera, an opposition Social Christian and the grand old man of Venezuelan democracy.

Caldera, 75, governed from 1969 to 1974 and continues to be an active party leader and political organizer.

Despite his age, he now is seen as a likely contender for elections in 1994.

COSTA RICA

Oscar Arias Sanchez, the former president who won the 1987 Nobel Peace Prize, left office in May, 1990, as Costa Rica’s de facto opposition leader. His National Liberation Party lost the elections for his successor.

Arias has spent most of his time since then traveling and lecturing abroad, trying to promote peace and demilitarization in Central America.

But his wife, Margarita Penon, has emerged as a leading early contender for the party’s 1994 presidential nomination.

Arias’ advisers say he will spend increasing time on his wife’s campaign.

NICARAGUA

Despite a freewheeling and often acrimonious debate within the Sandinista National Liberation Front over the causes of its February, 1990, election loss, former President Daniel Ortega has maintained his supremacy in what is still Nicaragua’s largest and most powerful political party. Indeed, he was elected secretary general at the Sandinista party convention this past weekend.

Ortega, 45, spent several months last year in the Middle East on a self-assigned mediation mission trying to prevent the Persian Gulf War. He is writing a book reflecting on his presidency but spends most of his time running the party.

In party policy debates, Ortega sides rhetorically with a hard-line faction that refuses to renounce socialism or violent methods to obtain it. But each time violent conflict erupts between Sandinista militants and the government, Ortega assumes the role of mediator.

As a result, the Sandinista Front has come around in negotiations to support some important government programs, including the reduction of the armed forces and the privatization of banking, foreign trade and scores of state-owned companies.

Before leaving office in April, 1990, the Sandinistas passed laws awarding themselves land, houses, vehicles and other property held by the state. Conservative members of President Violeta Barrios de Chamorro’s 14-party coalition this year moved to repeal the pinata laws, sparking the seizures of six city halls, including Managua’s, and two conservative radio stations.

Ortega warned at a news conference that war could return to Nicaragua, and he voiced a veiled threat against pro-government legislators if the laws should be repealed. Then he opened what were expected to be prolonged negotiations with the government.

Meanwhile, President Chamorro has gently urged Ortega to leave the mansion he seized from a Nicaraguan banker.

Ortega, apparently open to a compromise on the pinata dispute, is busy building a new house.

COLOMBIA

Four of five living former Colombian presidents, all elected by popular vote, exercise influence and power through media outlets.

Alfonso Lopez Michelsen (1974-1978) and his son Felipe hold controlling interest in Semana newsmagazine and in an evening television news program. Lopez Michelsen is the chief of President Cesar Gaviria’s Liberal Party.

Misael Pastrana Borrero (1970-1974) of the opposition Social Conservative Party uses his newspaper La Prensa, run by his son Juan Carlos Pastrana, to keep a

critical spotlight on the government. The day after Pastrana Borrero resigned from a constitutional assembly in June to protest a measure giving temporary decree powers to the president, La Prensa’s main headline said: “No to Dictatorship, Says Pastrana.”

Julio Cesar Turbay (1978-1982), also a Liberal, controls another newsmagazine, Hoy Por Hoy. And fellow Liberal Belisario Betancur (1982-1986) often writes columns that appear in the Liberal dailies El Espectador and El Tiempo, Bogota’s two main newspapers.

The most recent former Colombian president is Virgilio Barco Vargas (1986-1990), a Liberal who currently is ambassador to Britain.

While all of the former Liberal presidents have strong back-room influence in government affairs, the most powerful of them is Lopez Michelsen. If President Gaviria wants to be sure of keeping the party behind him, he must consult with Lopez before making any big decisions.

MEXICO

Miguel de la Madrid, the most recent former Mexican president, has followed the time-honored custom of quietly fading into the background after leaving office.

Because Mexico has no vice president, De la Madrid sometimes represents President Carlos Salinas de Gortari on occasions when a national presence is required, such as state funerals in foreign countries.

Publicly, De la Madrid always supports administration policy, and there are not even rumors that he may disagree with his successor’s decisions.

In fact, it is commonly believed that Salinas was virtually running the country during the last year of the De la Madrid administration.

Times staff writers Richard Boudreaux in Managua, Nicaragua, and Juanita Darling in Mexico City contributed to this report. Special correspondent Stan Yarbro in Bogota, Colombia, also contributed to this report.

On the Political Comeback Trail In these Latin American countries, former leaders are no longer consigned to exile or disgrace. Indeed, many figures from the past hold sway in shaping their countries’ political futures.