After 10 Years, PCs Continue to Evolve
The personal computer industry has come a long way in the 10 years since IBM introduced its first PC on Aug. 11, 1981.
The enhanced version of that machine--which cost about $3,000--came with 64k of memory, a 160k floppy disk drive and a monochrome display. IBM didn’t offer a hard disk on its first model, but by mid-1982 you could buy a 12-megabyte hard disk from an independent company for $3,300. A 20-megabyte drive cost $5,995. An expansion board with 256k of memory cost just under $1,000.
Today, $3,000 will buy you a state-of-the art PC “clone” with an Intel 486 CPU, 4 megabytes of memory, a 200-megabyte hard disk, a SuperVGA monitor, a modem and a copy of Microsoft Windows. That machine is 72 times faster, has 64 times the memory and 1,300 times the data storage as the original IBM PC.
For under $600, you can buy Hewlett-Packard’s HP 95LX. It has roughly the same computing power as the original PC but weighs 11 ounces, fits in your pocket and has Lotus 1-2-3 and several other programs in its permanent memory.
IBM wasn’t the first company to introduce a personal computer. Apple, Radio Shack, Commodore and several smaller companies were already in the market. But “Big Blue,” as IBM is sometimes called, brought an air of respectability to the fledgling industry. In 1980, I tried to bring an Apple II into a university computing center but was told “we don’t support video games.” IBM changed all that. Technologically, the original IBM PC was only slightly more powerful than my old Apple II. But it had infinitely more clout.
Today, there are hundreds of companies that manufacture machines that run the same software--and use most of the same expansion boards--as the original IBM PC. There are thousands of software companies and an untold number of people who make their living in the $55-billion PC industry. About 90% of the world’s 70 million personal computers are IBM compatibles. Today, IBM itself has approximately 15% of the worldwide personal computer marketplace, according to Dataquest.
The next 10 years will bring even more changes. Technology evolves at an ever-increasing rate. If the last decade has been impressive, the next will be staggering.
Expect to see cathode ray tube monitors phased out by the end of the century. Those TV-like display systems will be replaced by flat “active matrix” panels that use millions of tiny transistors to display stunning color images. The technology is already being used on some high-end laptop PCs. Homes and offices of the future will have smart electronic wall panels that can display computer data, video and works of art, depending on the needs--and whims--of the users.
Computers and TVs will join forces to create “interactive TV.” If you see an interesting segment on the evening news, you’ll be able to press a key for a more detailed video or a printed transcript. If you like what you see in a commercial, you’ll be able to order it on the spot.
Computers will be able to store infinitely more data. Terms such as gigabyte (about a billion bytes) and terabyte (about a million megabytes) will become household words. Optical storage media such as read/write compact discs will replace magnetic floppies and hard disks. You can already buy compact discs that contain an entire encyclopedia or thousands of magazine and newspaper articles.
Keyboards aren’t going to disappear--they’ll continue to be a convenient way to enter data. But there will be viable alternatives. Grid Systems, NCR, Wang and several other companies have already announced portable “pen-based computers” that let users enter information via a pen-like stylus. Current generation machines can decipher hand-printed block letters. In a few years, they’ll be able to read handwriting. Pen-based systems will have optional keyboards for use in an office, home or hotel room.
Remember Hal from Stanley Kubrick’s “2001”? I’m not worried about machines taking over the world, but by 2001 computers really will be able to understand--and hopefully obey--their master’s voice. Dragon Systems of Newton, Mass., now manufactures a $9,000 board for IBM compatibles that is able to recognize up to 30,000 words.
You can already buy a portable PC equipped with a cellular modem. By 2001, the fax machine, the phone and the PC will be fully integrated. Your personal information system--which you’ll carry in your pocket--will allow you to exchange voice, data, documents and, perhaps, video with friends and colleagues throughout the world.
The new generations of hardware will serve as platforms for much smarter software. Future programs will not only be easier to use, but will do far more. Your PC will serve as your “agent,” a combination of private secretary and communications operator. It will know your tastes in music, food and travel accommodations and will have access to enormous worldwide databases. Tell the “agent” to set up an out-of-town meeting and it will dial up your associate’s agent to find a mutually convenient time. It will also make your arrangements and suggest a concert or play and display the menu of a good restaurant in that area. It can even display a weather report for the area you’re visiting and suggest appropriate clothing from its wardrobe database.
As is true of anyone who tries to predict the future, I could be wrong. But I can be held accountable. Ten years from now, you’ll be able to call up this column from your newspaper database.
Computer File welcomes readers’ comments but regrets that the authors cannot respond individually to letters. Write to Lawrence J. Magid, P.O. Box 620477, Woodside, Calif. 94062, or contact the L. Magid account on the MCI electronic mail system.
